兩條消息，掀起巨浪，這次能摸到2900？

作者 | 謝筱白

現在看來，當時的判斷算不上正确，當然也算不上錯誤。

但還是要承認，我“天真”了，沒想到過程是如此的——極端。

周一“拔網線”讓我兩頭挨打；

周二又一個鯉魚打挺，表示“我還能搶救一下”；

到了今天，随着消息面開始發酵，行情開始出現了“新”變化。

01

首先是今天股指期貨連續兩天遠月沖闆，多空雙殺，走出非常極端的行情。

盤面呈現出先是殺多頭，再殺空頭的态勢。

這樣“抹幹吃盡”，實屬活久見，手段之狠辣，效果之顯著，但怎麼說呢？

非常霸氣的同時，帶我深深的震撼，“這是裝都不裝了嗎？”

事實上，我認為什麼”平準基金“入市的“小作文”是無稽之談，真正的原因在這裡：

消息一.多家頭部公募緊急響應”暫停新增轉融券規模“。

2月6日，證監會新聞發言人表示，對融券業務提出了三方面措施：

一是暫停新增轉融券規模；

二是嚴禁向利用融券實施日内回轉交易(變相T+0交易)的投資者提供融券；

三是持續加大監管執法力度。

這意味着：随時可啟動、更注意”影響“。

換言之，漏洞根本沒取消，反而多了“背書”與”合理性“。

02

但相比之前“要讓做空則付出慘痛代價”，這顯然是：放大招了。

尤其是“券商延期強平”條款，意味着：已經融券在手，且快到期的倉位，不得不立即買券還券。

瞬間攻守異勢，空頭“被動”變多頭。

此時，我們再看第二條消息：

昨晚官宣，中央彙金公司宣布将持續加大對ETF的增持規模和力度，尤其是中正一千、中正五百、科創版和創業版等ETF。

這直接表明GJD在這幾個領域的買入力度有所增加，擺出了反攻2900的架勢。

那麼，問題來了：彙金增持的資金是從哪來的？為什麼選擇這時候才“救”？他們的目的又是什麼？

03

答案非常清晰：這都是他們設計好的“局”。

一方面是：節前再不拉起來，過完年更沒人玩了！

君不見這兩天ZJH忙瘋了，兩天幹了一年的活。

想方設法在“平民憤”的同時，又盡量不“得罪”利益集團，在有限的空間内閃轉騰挪。

真的是為難他們了。

另一方面是：對于GJD而言，做空能攫取到的利潤已經非常有限了，不如掉頭做多。

道理也不複雜，買是為了賣，現在配合ZJH，不僅可以留下好印象，還可以赢兩次（賣出獲利與做空）。

再一方面是：這會讓盤面變得好看，給散戶營造一些“幻想”。

我相信一定會有不少大V表示，随着政策與資金的“主動出擊”，三大被動抛壓的現狀也在逐漸減緩，雪球強平風險已經得到緩解，而兩融和股權質押方面的壓力也相對較小，這一系列措施使得市場底部的“看起來”确認更加堅實。

那麼你猜：散戶會不會跟進，認為今天的行情是在“倒車接人”？

04

今天的盤面其實還是老劇本——拉指數，重維護，超3000+個股的下跌，表明市場依舊孱弱不堪。

究其根本在于："缺錢“與”财政缺口“是市場頭上達摩利克斯之劍。

是以我們會看到，這次救市跟以往的“救市”完全不同，次元更廣，層次更立體，舉措更是花樣繁多。

具體而言：救資本市場，那房市怎麼辦？匯率又怎麼辦？這中間的主要沖突、次要沖突是什麼？

基于此，現在的“救市”這個詞既包含了對股市的直接救助，也包含更多對經濟的政策支援。

是以我們會看到：對地方政府的化債，對房地産的寬松托底，以及對消費端擺脫通縮的更大力度的政策。

這自然需要更多時間去平衡、去取舍、去拆東牆補西牆....

如果更直接一點：所謂的“救市”都會圍繞：怎麼搞到錢？然後錢流向哪裡？

基于此，先殺多頭，再拔網線殺空頭，意外嗎？

05

不意外，一點不意外。

為此，我們又該做哪些準備？又該杜絕哪些行為？

首先我認為是現金流，現金流，還是現金流。

道理不複雜，這個市場屬于高度被“控盤”的盤面，而且随着“财政缺口”的敞口增大，市場會愈發極端。

預判市場将變得非常困難，我們能做的隻有做預案。

該跟随的時候跟随，保持機動性。具體而言，漲怎麼做，跌怎麼做，保證本金安全的基礎上，日拱一卒。

等趨勢一旦形成，我們跟上即可。

2.絕不抄底、絕不抄底、絕不抄底。

各位可以看一下，安正時尚，603839，非常典型的大股東質押被爆倉。

這個過程中，不管哪個位置去抄底，結果都是：一樣慘。

基于此，我認為眼下我們的政策非常簡單：

多單拿住，不回落踩線，不賣出。

不建議再上倉位，除非放量上漲突破壓力位，可以考慮加倉。

除此之外，空單不急于建倉。

簡而言之，可加倉、可不加倉的，不建議加倉。

可減倉、可不減倉的，建議減倉。

3.做最悲觀的預期，做最樂觀的操作。

事實上，當财政的坑能填上，如果，我說如果......

2025年，如果能解決房地産問題，房地産業進入平穩發展的存量時代。

如果光伏、電能智能車、人工智能等技術進步不停止，産業形成自主更新疊代能力。

如果經濟在下一個風口形成萬億人形機器人、智能機器人、智能無人飛機……

那我們很有前景，唯一的關鍵是同時增加居民收入，消費支援增長。

結語

拉長時間來看，我們這邊“卷”得厲害，幹啥都是飛快。

别人幾十年取得的成績，我們突突突幾年就搞定......大幹快上、彎道超車似乎寫進了我們DNA。

但大家想過一個問題沒有：

豬長大了，就該宰了。企業做大了呢，站在老闆的角度，該不該賣？

基于此，我建議大家還是盡可能保持戰略定力，做預案，而不是做預判，該做多做多，該做空做空，跟上時代的潮汐。

祝好，我是希望你們财富自由的謝筱白。

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