Northeast ports began to stage a beautiful "price increase" market for three consecutive days, why? Arriving vehicles because of the Spring Festival logistics greatly reduced and stopped the expectation of collection, this has a "proud" price increase market, if the enterprise in front of the Wuyang Wuyang car, you try to see if you can increase the price? No matter what, the price increase is a good thing, although you don't see how much money has increased in your pocket, you are happy to listen to, do you say?
In the face of the price increase in Jilin, Jilin's grain dealers and drying towers are "passionate" to start the "long-lost" "grain" war, basically upside down about 100 yuan/ton purchase, and then bet on the price of corn after the Spring Festival.
Hello farmers and friends, today is February 3, 2024, the Spring Festival is getting closer and closer, and there are more and more enterprises in Northeast China that have stopped deep processing, but the enthusiasm for grassroots acquisitions is still undiminished.
When they collect grain, they will tell a wave of stories, and when they sell grain, they will tell another story, and when they don't collect grain, it is full of stories, how do they feel so familiar? Isn't it like a special one-to-one script for "some chats", according to different groups of people, different chat content, but the purpose is to make the other party believe in your story, and then figure out your psychology, depending on your needs to place an order? Haha, a little dirty, sorry.
"Progress of Grain Sales" and "Peasant Sentiment"
1. Drying towers and traders: when the grain is not harvested, the sky is full of corn;
2. Farmers: After selling the corn, they hope that the price of corn will fall, and the cost of renting land will be reduced;
3. Time: During the Spring Festival, if there is a buyer, there will be farmers who sell grain; the current market is telling the story of price increases, and the grain selling groups will wait and see;
Therefore, the corn market in Northeast China has formed an indirect consensus: the price increase market will continue before the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, and the farmers sell relatively little grain. If the market has begun to converge, will the market trend change?—— will the price fall come early? I don't know, because the market changes too fast, I don't know where a piece of news may change the market trend.
As far as the peasants who are lying on the ground are concerned, the market is full of variables, and the price of grain is sold, and the price is stopped, but most people use this eight-character principle in reverse, rushing to sell grain at a lower price, and reluctant to sell it at a higher price. At this point in time, in the face of rising prices, do you choose to wait and see or sell? Think for yourself. After all, there are more and more enterprises that stop harvesting, and the main body of grain collection will gradually decrease.
There are more and more enterprises and grain depots that have stopped harvesting
(1) Inner Mongolia Alukorqin state-owned grain depot: stop harvesting;
(2) Liaoning Changtu Grain Reserve: Stop harvesting;
(3) Heilongjiang Harbin Shuangcheng Alcohol Factory Shenglong Industry: Suspended;
(4) Heilongjiang Daqing directly under the warehouse: Chao corn announced the suspension of harvest;
(5) Jilin Dunhua direct warehouse: stop the acquisition, continue the acquisition on February 19;
(6) Heilongjiang Wanli Runda: The acquisition was stopped on February 2, and the acquisition was launched on February 17 after the Spring Festival;
(7) Chengfu, Zhaodong, Heilongjiang Province began to purchase 15,000 tons of corn in limited quantities;
(8) Heilongjiang Xinhecheng Biotech: The acquisition was officially stopped at 8 o'clock on February 6, and the acquisition time after the Spring Festival will be notified separately;
(9) Heilongjiang Fujin Xiangyu: The acquisition was stopped at 5 p.m. on February 6, and the purchase of weighing scales resumed at 8 a.m. on February 18 after the Spring Festival.
(10) Heilongjiang Baoqing Wanli: The acquisition will be stopped at 5 p.m. on February 2, and the acquisition will be started on time at 7 a.m. on February 17 after the Spring Festival.
(11) Jilin Yushu Bioenergy: The acquisition will be stopped at 5 p.m. on February 6, and the acquisition will start on February 18 after the Spring Festival.
(12) Fufeng, Inner Mongolia: The corn sampling time on February 9 ~ February 14 will be adjusted to: 8 a.m. ~ 5:30 p.m., and it will return to normal on February 15.
(13) Inner Mongolia Yipin Biotechnology: It is tentatively scheduled to stop the acquisition at 8 a.m. on February 4.
(14) Hebei Lihua raw materials: the acquisition was stopped at 5 p.m. on February 8 and returned to normal on February 18.
(15) COFCO Anhui Biochemical Mohekou Plant: The acquisition was suspended on February 9 and resumed on February 15.
(16) Liaoning Yihai Kerry: The acquisition will be stopped from 5 p.m. on February 8, and the acquisition will be normal on February 18!
(17) Jilin Yushu COFCO: The acquisition was stopped on February 7, and the normal purchase was made on February 19.
Let's take a look at Shandong, deep processing enterprises due to the rain and snow in the past two days of the arrival of the enterprise in front of the enterprise is very small, but how long can this situation be maintained? After three days, the snowfall in the north has decreased significantly, and after February 9, the situation of rain and snow in the country will end, ushering in a Spring Festival without rain and snow. At the same time, because the amount of snowfall in the north is less than expected, and the transportation is not blocked, will the Northeast army impact Shandong deep processing?
1. It is precisely because of rain and snow that the moisture of the corn ears may increase, and the moisture of the natural dry cannot be reached, and the willingness of grassroots grain points to purchase is not very strong;
2. When farmers see the information of price increases, they are more resistant to a large price drop, which leads to a slower progress in selling grain during this period;
3. The corn yield in North China in 2023 is expected to be bumper, and the time has not yet come for grassroots grain points and traders to build a large number of warehouses and store grain in a short period of time to bet on the expected price increase in the future.
4. The price of 2,100 yuan in the early stage of North China is equivalent to the bottom of the price, but the troubles and influences of various trapped elements have led to no one hoarding a large amount of grain, which has also found an opportunity for future price increases.
Therefore, the corn market in North China has officially entered the time period of "deep processing of farmers' grain" emotional game and mutual force, and farmers subscribe to the purchase of → grain points as appropriate→ and the price of deep processing is lowered, otherwise it is relatively difficult for farmers ↔ to sell → grain ↔ points→ and the price of deep processing will increase depending on who has a greater effect, and in the short term, they are "evenly matched" with each other Therefore, there is a high probability that there will be a point axis (2400 yuan) up and down, which is equivalent to putting the farmers themselves to sell corn to March, whether it will resonate with the Northeast corn, are unknown, because the future weather, policies, etc. will not disrupt the expected rhythm?
Judging from the 2024 spring trend forecast of the National Climate Center, in March ~ May, southern Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, and other places will be 1~2 degrees Celsius higher. On the other hand, the Northeast is a little bad, especially in the eastern part of Heilongjiang, the northeast of Jilin, and the western part of Inner Mongolia, the precipitation is more than 2~5 percent - this is just a prediction, but it also gives a direction: after entering March, North China is conducive to the rapid reduction of corn moisture, and the Northeast is not conducive to the storage of grain. (Personal opinion, for reference only, does not represent correct, all nonsense)
The latest corn prices in the country on February 3, 2024
山东七星柠檬：1.24元，涨1.5分。
Shandong Bowling Bao: 1.17 yuan above 16 moisture, 1.18 yuan below 16 moisture, 1 point.
Shandong Zhucheng Xingmao: 1.22 yuan above 25 moisture, 1.2 yuan above 25 moisture, up 1 point.
Shandong Zhonggu starch: 1.175 yuan within 18 moisture, 1.17 yuan above 18 moisture, 5 centi.
Shandong Zhucheng Yuanfa: 1.217 yuan below 25 moisture, 1.192 yuan above 25 moisture, up 1 point.
Shandong Yishui land: 1.22 yuan within 25 moisture, 1.19 yuan above 25 moisture, up 2 points. Up 2 times.
Jilin Huamao Biological: second class 2210 yuan / ton, third class 2190 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan.
Jilin Gongzhuling COFCO: second class 2220 yuan/ton, third class 2200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan.
Heilongjiang Fufu Yihai Kerry: 30 moisture 0.828 yuan, up 1 point.
Heilongjiang Jingliang Longjiang: 14 moisture 1.05 yuan, 30 moisture 0.8484 yuan, up 5%.