It is difficult for Chinese manufacturers to buy ASML lithography machines, and EUV lithography machines cannot be shipped to Chinese manufacturers, even if they are foreign-funded factories in China.
Mainstream DUV lithography machine shipments, such as the 2000i and subsequent models, also need to be licensed, and earlier models such as the 1980i need to wait, because ASML has squeezed a large number of lithography machine orders, and the production capacity cannot keep up.
But at the end of 2023, ASML suddenly announced that all orders for lithography machines from Chinese manufacturers have been delivered, and about 5.5 billion euros worth of equipment has been shipped to China.
Due to the large number of lithography machines shipped to the Chinese market, in the third quarter of 2023, China became ASML's largest market, with annual revenue reaching 27.559 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%, and a net profit of 7.839 billion euros.
The reasons why ASML, which has always had difficulty in shipping, suddenly delivered all orders for lithography machines to Chinese manufacturers are none other than the following.
First of all, the United States has been revising the rules to further restrict shipments, especially after the signing of the tripartite agreement, further restricting ASML's shipment of mainstream DUV lithography machines, and the Netherlands has also announced that it will cooperate with the United States to carry out export controls on related semiconductor products.
This means that ASML has no chance if it doesn't ship quickly.
Therefore, after obtaining a 4-month license, ASML accelerated the shipment of lithography machines to domestic manufacturers, which are mainly based on early 1980i and other models, and can produce chips with 14nm and above processes.
However, ASML also shipped 2000i and subsequent models of lithography machines to China, which can be used in the 7/5nm process, and TSMC has used it to mass-produce the first generation of 7nm chips, and admits that they can be used in the 5nm process.
Secondly, Chinese manufacturers have made rapid breakthroughs, especially after the launch of Huawei Mate60Pro, the Kirin 9000s chip has officially surfaced, proving that China has the ability to manufacture chips with advanced technology and the ability to build advanced semiconductor equipment.
According to the news, the domestic industrial chain has the ability to build a DUVi lithography machine, which can reduce the chip process to 7nm, and will soon realize the whole process of non-US 7nm.
ASML also publicly stated that Huawei's self-developed chip semiconductor industry chain is an act of sabotaging the global industrial chain, which undoubtedly admits that there are already advanced lithography machines in China.
In such a situation, ASML can only accelerate domestic shipments.
Because domestic lithography machines have won eighty percent of the domestic market, after the delivery of advanced lithography machines in large quantities, it will inevitably affect ASML's market share in China.
Finally, overcapacity for advanced processes has led to a decline in demand for EUV lithography machines, but demand for lithography machines from Chinese manufacturers is strong.
Wei Zhejia admits that new energy vehicles have brought huge opportunities to mature process chips, which are greater than smart phones, and China is the world's largest producer and seller of new energy vehicles.
Domestic manufacturers continue to reduce the number of imported chips, reducing by about 90 billion in 2023, and the number of domestic chips is growing rapidly.
75% of SMIC's chip orders come from domestic manufacturers.
This shows that more and more chips are manufactured in China, and the demand for lithography machines is naturally huge.
What's more, Huawei and other domestic manufacturers are thinking about reducing their dependence on lithography machines, optimizing the core layout of chips, adopting hyper-threading technology and advanced packaging technology, etc., so as to improve chip performance.
In contrast, after the chip enters the 5nm process, the performance improvement brought by the improvement of the process technology is less and less obvious, and the cost is rising rapidly, which makes it difficult for TSMC Apple and other giants to accept, and TSMC is not active in purchasing NA EUV lithography machines.