"Follow" and let's talk about it together
The Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline is a flagship project of energy cooperation between China and Russia. As the pipeline is planned to connect to the mainland through Mongolia, it has raised concerns about the mainland's energy security. China and Russia have also been slow to sign formal contract documents for the project.
Mongolia, as an intermediary, was able to reap a lot of benefits from the project, but now the two sides are not signing a contract. Worried that it would be left behind, Mongolia hurriedly called on China and Russia to exchange three commitments for China's signature. What exactly are these three commitments, and will China choose to sign them?
1. Transit pipelines
The Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline is a gas pipeline from central Russia to western China. The route design of this pipeline is led by the Russian side, and the Russian side has also considered the option of passing through Mongolia. Due to changes in the international situation, the Russian side has been hit hard in the European energy market and can only focus on Asia.
Choosing to go through Mongolia can find an additional seller for this gas pipeline, so that you can make more energy money. However, such a design may not be in the interests of the mainland, especially in terms of energy security. The United States and Mongolia are eye-browning under the banner of the so-called "third neighbor", and once the White House makes a decision, this pipeline will be cut off at any time.
Moreover, there are so many bordering places between China and Russia, it is not economically cost-effective to choose to transit through Mongolia. Transit through Mongolia means that the mainland, as the beneficiary, will have to pay Mongolia $1 billion a year in "tolls". Mongolia can enjoy clean energy from Russia, and earn Chinese "tolls", which are too cheap for them.
In this way, the Chinese side has not signed the agreement, and although many cooperation intentions have been reached, it has not been translated into a contract for a long time. This act of the Chinese side has made Mongolia and Russia anxious, but compared to the Russian side, Mongolia is the most anxious. It's a big deal, China and Russia can choose to bypass Mongolia in the bordering places.
Mongolia's three commitments
Mongolian leader Oyun Erden recently called on China and made three commitments to China. The Mongolian side hopes that this move will dispel China's thoughts and actively promote the project. As the saying goes, "listen to his words and watch his deeds", let's take a look at which 3 promises are these.
First of all, Mongolia still attaches great importance to China-Mongolia relations, which are at the "highest level". China still insists on developing a "comprehensive strategic partnership," which means that no matter who Mongolia cooperates with, it will never go beyond its relations with China. Mongolia is trying to stabilize Beijing and reach a consensus through this commitment.
Second, Mongolia's trade exports to China increased by about 40% last year, and it will continue to deepen bilateral economic and trade relations. Mongolia is sandwiched between China and Russia, and Russia is inferior to China in terms of economy, and Mongolia's foreign trade can only be highly dependent on China. However, the Mongolian side is still vividly aware of the unilateral tearing up of the cooperation agreement, and it can only take a wait-and-see attitude towards this commitment.
Finally, Mongolia will deepen bilateral tourism and people-to-people cooperation and encourage exchanges between young people from the two countries. As we all know, the friendship between countries lies in the proximity of the people, not to mention the fact that China and Mongolia have the same roots in terms of cultural customs. In this move, the Mongolian side is trying to deepen official ties with the help of the people.
3. Will China compromise?
In the face of the sudden shouting from the Mongolian high-level, the mainland will also take it into consideration, but so far the mainland officials have not made any statement. On the contrary, the Mongolian side is a little unable to sit still, and they have been calling for the promotion of trilateral talks between China, Mongolia and Russia. In the two sections of the project, neither China nor Russia is so urgent, but the middle Mongolia, is impatient.
Now is the time to test the political determination of all parties, and the pipeline is not so necessary for the mainland. The mainland has established a secure energy supply channel and moved away from a situation of dependence on one party. In other words, it doesn't matter to the mainland whether there is such a pipeline to transport natural gas.
This pipeline is of great significance to Russia and Mongolia, and the initiative is naturally on the mainland. For Russia, they need more buyers to weaken the impact of the European energy market on Russia. For its part, Mongolia needs low-cost access to natural gas and a slice of the pie between China and Russia, while still being able to move between major powers with a wavering diplomatic posture.
In the end, it is not known whether the mainland will sign a formal contract, and we can only continue to observe. However, one thing is certain, that is, the mainland will never sell its own national interests to satisfy others. Everything must be done to meet the needs of the mainland and conform to the interests of the mainland as the starting point and the end goal.
Epilogue:
Why the "Power of Siberia-2" pipeline is at an impasse, presumably both the Mongolian side and the Russian side know. Naturally, they understood China's concerns, otherwise the Mongolian leader would not have shouted such a thing. Now that we understand China's concerns, we should show some sincerity to dispel China's concerns, so that the project can be implemented smoothly.