Flash crash 80%! Wang Yibo didn't collapse, Lehua Entertainment collapsed?

Source | Deep Blue Finance

Written by | Wang Xin

Become an "immortal" in one day, this is Hong Kong stocks. It's just that I didn't expect that this crash was the turn of Lehua Entertainment, the "first share of idols".

1

Flash Crash 80%

On January 16, Lehua Entertainment (02306. HK) suddenly plummeted 80% intraday, and its stock price plummeted from the opening price of HK$5.73 to HK$1.13, a new low since its listing, and it was almost a "penny stock".

Based on this calculation, Lehua Entertainment evaporated 4 billion Hong Kong dollars in market value in the inner day, and there is only 1.177 billion left.

In fact, Lehua Entertainment's plunge today is not without warning, just yesterday, it also fell 25.39%, which means that the market value has lost HK $5.5 billion in two days.

This kind of bankruptcy-style decline method directly sent Lehua Entertainment to the first place in the hot search.

"Wang Yibo collapsed?"

After all, Lehua Entertainment is known as Wang Yibo's concept stock, and its prospectus mentions Wang Yibo 18 times, and in the first three quarters of 2022, Wang Yibo's contribution accounted for 59% of the total revenue in the same period.

This model, which is highly dependent on top artists, also determines the biggest source of its risk.

Coincidentally, on January 15, Lehua Entertainment released the "Explanation on the Progress of Mr. Wang Yibo's Reputation Rights Protection Case" on Weibo, and the company pointed out that it found that a large number of online entities continued to publish suspected insulting and defamatory remarks against the company's artist Wang Yibo on various platforms...... The company resolutely protects the legitimate rights and interests of Wang Yibo and actively protects his rights through legal channels.    

However, this is just the company's regular operation, and there are no rumors about its artists at present.

2

Cut first for respect?

The fuse that led to the flash crash of Lehua Entertainment may be related to its lifting of the ban.

As the largest artist management company in China, Lehua Entertainment will land on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 19, 2023, realizing its dream of "the first idol stock".

At that time, the company's prospectus showed that the offer shares purchased by cornerstone investors were subject to a 12-month lock-up from the date of listing. In other words, the lock-up deadline for cornerstone investors is January 18, 2024, and they can sell from January 19.

According to the announcement of the offer price and allotment results, Lehua Entertainment introduced a number of cornerstone investors at the time of listing, namely Sun Mass Energy (a wholly-owned holding company of China Ruyi), Maoyan Hong Kong, Ding Shijia (executive director and vice chairman of Anta Sports) and Haozan Asset Management Co., Ltd., with a total subscription of US$19.9 million, corresponding to 37.944 million shares, accounting for 4.35% of the total share capital after the over-allotment.    

Some analysts believe that some investors may have sold the relevant shares in advance knowing that Cornerstone was about to lift the ban.

But what is very helpless is that some people's rush directly made Lehua Entertainment fall into slag, and now the corresponding market value of these cornerstone shares is only about 430 billion Hong Kong dollars, a contract of 5.5 million US dollars, or a blood loss of more than 70%!

In such a situation, who can endure the pain of cutting meat?

Not only that, but Du Hua, the female boss of Lehua Entertainment, also had to plummet in value this time. As of the 2023 interim report, Du Hua holds 43.17% of the shares, and there is no 2.3 billion Hong Kong dollars in about two days.

It is worth noting that Lehua Entertainment's transaction amount today is HK$159 million, which is not particularly exaggerated.

In the final analysis, the liquidity of the market is really insufficient now, and when it encounters concentrated selling pressure, it is this kind of bankruptcy-style decline, and major shareholders cannot come up with money to maintain the market value.

3

The alarm has long been sounded

For Lehua Entertainment, such a plunge also reflects investors' extremely weak confidence in it, and behind it is fragile fundamentals.

Lehua Entertainment has been chasing the capital market for 7 years, and has experienced a total of 3 rounds of financing before listing, with investors including Loeb Capital, Rongxi Venture Capital, Chinese Culture, ByteDance, Alibaba, etc., which shows that it has also been "favored" by capital.

However, with the blessing of traffic stars and capital, Lehua Entertainment changed its face after it went public.

Before the listing, Lehua Entertainment's revenue jumped from 631 million yuan in 2019 to 1.29 billion yuan in 2021, and its net profit soared from 119 million yuan to 335 million yuan in the same period, with a very bright growth rate. At the same time, the net profit margin is as high as 30.6%, which is very profitable.

However, the first report card after listing, that is, in 2022, its revenue was 980 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, and its net profit rose more than 4 times to 1.724 billion yuan, mainly due to the valuation of convertible preferred shares, which brought income of 1.582 billion yuan.

Regardless of the change in fair value, the net profit actually declined, and the company's adjusted net profit was 267 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.4%.

In the first half of 2023, Lehua Entertainment will be completely unable to hold on, with revenue of 365 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.24%, and a net profit of 175 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 287%.

Behind the bad performance, there is the ebb and flow of the artist economy, such as the suspension of talent shows and the collapse of some idols, which have brought a lot of blows to Lehua Entertainment.

What's more noteworthy is that Lehua Entertainment's contract with Wang Yibo will expire in October 2024, which will once again test the continuity of the company's business model.

But the amazing thing is that despite a series of problems, after the company went public, the stock price once walked out of the "idol halo", rising from HK$4.08 to HK$8.25, doubling in one year.

It's just that now the plummeting speed is faster, and the price of fractures has been broken in two days.

4

epilogue

There is a line in the TV series "Flowers" that says well, "It takes an hour to run from under the Empire State Building to the roof, and it only takes 8.8 seconds to jump from the roof, which is the stock." ”

When a company blows up the bubble big enough, it bursts faster than anyone thinks.

What do you think?

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