Soaring by 40% overnight, technological change will overturn the new energy vehicle market!

Last night, the solid-state battery sector of the U.S. stock market rose 7%.

In terms of individual stocks, Quantumscape, a U.S. solid-state battery stock, rose 43.08%! It is also driven by the direction of solid-state batteries in today's A-share market, and today's opening solid-state battery concept stocks also followed the rising tide, and the bidding rose sharply, with Jinlongyu, Selen New Materials, Shanghai Xiba daily limit, Oriental Zirconium, Zhengye Technology, Zhongzi Technology, Ruitai New Materials, Zijian Electronics, etc. rose more than 5%. The battery has risen several times, and this time it is unstoppable again.

Solid-state batteries are not a new concept, some are optimistic, some are not optimistic, this time Quantumscape's strong performance can be regarded as a shot in the arm for the optimistic. At present, most of the solid-state batteries in the industry are semi-solid-state, and the technology of this kind of battery is not the most difficult, the most difficult is the cost, and the industry should say that the cost has been too high. Issues such as cost, production process, and industrial chain support are all obstacles on the road to the commercialization of solid-state batteries.

In fact, solid-state batteries are not the focus of research of domestic manufacturers, and they are mainly used for oxides in China, such as CATL, Rongbai Technology, and some manufacturers in Europe and the United States are developing solid-state batteries. Of course, there are also some manufacturers in research, and most of them are semi-solid, a while ago, according to Weilai's actual measurement of the Weilai ET7 equipped with a 150kWh battery pack, the energy density of a single cell is 360Wh/kg, and the measured range is 1044 kilometers (the remaining CLTC mileage is 36 kilometers), of which the intelligent driving mileage is 957 kilometers, the comprehensive power consumption of the whole 100 kilometers is 13.2 degrees, and the remaining power percentage is 7% when the measured range reaches 1000 kilometers Although it has been studied for so many years, this is the first time that a semi-solid-state battery model has been publicly broadcast live and measured. Changan Automobile is developing solid-state battery technology, but it also plans to gradually mass produce applications from 2025.   

In fact, the commercialization process of any emerging technology is not likely to be smooth sailing. Solid-state batteries are no exception. Judging from the domestic progress, how to reduce the cost may be the most critical, when the cost, production process, and industrial chain supporting will be done, and the cost may be reduced.

Cost is the focus of the industry

Now for new energy vehicle manufacturers, cost is the key to the key, and no matter what battery is used, cost is the most concerned by car companies.

Last year was when there was no new energy subsidy, and the depressed car sales in the first two years rebounded slightly, I don't know if it will affect this year's sales, after the market share of electric vehicles in major European countries increased from 6.7% in 2020 to 11.2% in 2021 under strong subsidies. The boom in electric vehicle sales in Europe is partly due to government subsidies, which burst when they are withdrawn and the demand bubble that has been inflated by high subsidies.

For any country, this is the case, the withdrawal of subsidies, means that new energy vehicles have shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, industry competition will be more intense, and consumers' choices will be more diverse.

On the one hand, the withdrawal of subsidies has had a certain impact on some car companies and consumers. Of course, after the withdrawal of the national subsidy, it means that new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles will return to the same running line, and for the majority of consumers, pure electric vehicles may not be the best choice. On the other hand, the question of how domestic manufacturers can compete with foreign new energy leaders such as Tesla. In terms of popularity, models and comprehensive performance, Tesla's competitiveness surpasses that of many car companies.   

So, in the past two years, we have found that polarization has become more and more serious, and for car buyers, price is naturally the most important factor among all the metrics. Perhaps domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers will appropriately increase the price of their products in order to ensure profit margins. If the price of domestic manufacturers' products rises across the board, the domestic new energy vehicle market will usher in a new round of enterprise elimination.

Yesterday, the passenger car association released the relevant sales situation, and it is initially estimated that the retail sales of the passenger car market in December 2023 will be 2.361 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9%, a month-on-month increase of 14%, and a cumulative retail sales of 21.706 million units since 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6%. It is preliminarily estimated that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in December 2023 will be 936,000 units, up 46% year-on-year and 11% month-on-month, and the cumulative retail sales since 2023 will be 7.744 million units, up 36% year-on-year.

This is also polarized for the car companies in the market, drought of drought, waterlogging of waterlogging, new energy sales of more than 10,000 manufacturers of more than a dozen manufacturers, these dozen car companies wholesale sales accounted for more than 80% of the overall new energy passenger car sales of the month, some of the head car companies sell the best, do not worry about sales. Those car companies on the tail can't sell it.

Eventually, only a few automakers may remain in the industry, some low-end products that rely on subsidies to survive may be eliminated, and some price-sensitive consumers may hold off on their purchase plans. The advantage is that the withdrawal of subsidies will also promote the optimization and upgrading of the industry and the innovative development of the industry. Some car companies with technical advantages, product advantages, brand advantages and service advantages will stand out, and some consumers who pursue performance, quality, experience and personalization will become the mainstream.       

How will the market choose?

Without the national new energy subsidy, the domestic new energy vehicle market has moved towards market-driven, market competition will be more intense, and some of the price of the product will be passed on to consumers. If the car company has a good quality car, a cost-effective car, or a particularly intelligent car, I am afraid that the future performance will not be particularly good.

It can be seen from Tesla's price reduction action that it is aiming at an important opportunity for the withdrawal of national subsidies and wants to compete with domestic manufacturers for the market. Last year, it also stimulated a lot of domestic car price cuts, and it is indeed Tesla's price reduction that has changed the market pattern, but no one can control this trend.

Under the guidance of the market mechanism, the technological innovation ability of domestic new energy vehicle companies will be further stimulated. For example, they are researching batteries with stronger endurance and lower cost, and researching more advanced and more humanized smart products.

Lv Changshun (Cairns) Certificate number: A0150619070003. [The above content only represents personal views and does not constitute a basis for trading, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious]

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#07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body: not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, ..1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([ 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#fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: 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rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6{font-weight:400; font-size:16px}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0; padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important; box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important; word-wrap:break-word!important}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; 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