The United States restricts lithography machines, A-shares have a black start, and domestic capital will smash the market at the beginning of the year

I didn't expect that on the first day of the year, foreign-funded institutions began to smash the direction of economic recovery represented by consumption and the direction of science and technology represented by semiconductors and AI. It is said that the new year and the new atmosphere, we do not see vitality in the operation of domestic institutions today, but are as pessimistic and conservative as ever.

Now A-shares are nothing more than three directions, optimistic about the recovery of the domestic economy, and then optimistic about the appreciation of the renminbi and the inflow of foreign capital, then the institutions and foreign capital heavy sectors will be stronger, such as consumption, medicine, new energy, etc.

If you are not optimistic about economic recovery, there are two routes to take: one is the offensive route, mainly technology growth stocks and small-ticket stocks, and the other is the defensive route, mainly coal, oil and other high-dividend stocks.

At the beginning of last year, the market was optimistic about economic recovery, and foreign investors bought A-shares sharply, and the economic recovery line strengthened. Then the expectation of economic recovery after the Spring Festival was falsified, and since then the recovery line has weakened, and the market has turned to the barbell strategy of high dividend dividend + growth theme stocks. I thought that there would be a new atmosphere in the new year, but at present, the market is still continuing the pre-holiday style, and even technology growth stocks have been abandoned and concentrated in the direction of high dividends.

On the one hand, foreign capital believes that A-shares have a higher cost performance ratio than the global stock market and have the desire to allocate them; on the other hand, the rate of foreign capital inflow will depend on the domestic economic policy and the trend of A-shares.

In short, incremental funding determines the style of the market. If the incremental funds come from public offerings and northbound funds, then the style of the A-share market will switch to the direction of the market and the track; if the public offering and foreign capital continue to lie flat, but retail investors and floating capital will take the lead, then it will continue last year's small ticket and theme style.

Let's take a look at today's blockbuster news:

Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Finance Office in charge of daily work and director of the Central Agricultural Office, wrote in the People's Daily on January 2 that the 2023 Central Economic Work Conference requires that we should adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking down. We must conscientiously comprehend the profound connotation. It is mentioned that it is necessary to come up with more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment, and prudently introduce contractionary and inhibitory measures to create favorable conditions for achieving "progress".

Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Finance Office in charge of daily work and director of the Central Agricultural Office, wrote in the People's Daily on January 2 that it is necessary to strengthen the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation.

We all know that this is the lesson learned after the "Opinion Draft" of the new online game regulations in the past two weeks hit market confidence, and we should cautiously introduce contractionary and repressive measures, and include non-economic policies in the consistency assessment of macro policy orientation, so as to ensure that we work in the same direction and form a joint force.

There were media reports before the market that the United States urged Dutch chip equipment manufacturers to block Chinese sales before the deadline, which had a certain impact on the sentiment of the semiconductor sector today, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to this report and verified the report.

Thai Prime Minister Saita said that China and Thailand will permanently exempt each other's citizens from March this year, which stimulated the strengthening of the A-share tourism sector.

Finally, looking at the market, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.43%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.87%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 2.08%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.62%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.34%. The turnover of the two cities shrank to 0.78 trillion yuan, and northbound funds sold 5.269 billion yuan on a large margin.

This week, the United States will release December employment data, because the current market is more optimistic about the Fed's early interest rate cuts, if the data exceeds expectations, it may lead to the expectation being corrected, so the market has begun to game the data in advance, today the US 10 bond yield rose above 3.9%, the dollar index also strengthened, before the blockbuster data landed, the market sentiment may be cautious.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently