@视觉中国
In 2023, the logistics industry will have an undercurrent, such as the price war in the express delivery industry. But from the perspective of the whole industry, what is really worth noting is the wave of logistics companies listed this year.
Unlike in 2022, when many logistics companies were unable to show their strength, in 2023, a number of logistics companies will go public one after another. Some companies have successfully gone public, while others are still struggling to go public.
According to incomplete statistics from Titanium Media APP, in 2023, there will be as many as 17 logistics companies successfully listed in Hong Kong stocks, US stocks and A-shares, including 11 US stocks, 3 Chinese logistics companies, 4 Hong Kong stocks and 2 A-shares. According to the type of business, air cargo accounted for 24%, and sea shipping accounted for nearly 41%. In addition, there are companies that have submitted listing applications, including Cainiao, SF Holdings, Air China Cargo, etc. Taking China Southern Airlines Logistics as an example, there are still some companies that plan to go public but have not yet entered the listing process.
Why are there more logistics companies listed this year? Behind this is the result of a variety of comprehensive factors, related to the economic environment of tight financing, and it is also inseparable from the strategic adjustment of logistics companies to accelerate the global layout and improve the level of logistics technology innovation.
Yuan Shuai, a senior researcher at Zhongwu Huicheng Logistics Research Institute, told Titanium Media APP, "From the perspective of the industry, with the rapid development of the e-commerce market, the logistics industry has also ushered in huge growth opportunities. At the same time, the logistics industry needs to carry out a lot of infrastructure construction and scientific and technological investment to improve efficiency and service quality, which requires a lot of financial support. Going public can help companies get more financing opportunities and accelerate their growth. In addition, some companies also hope to improve their brand awareness and market position through listing, and further expand their business scope. ”
With the rapid development of the national economy, the logistics industry has entered a mature period after continuous expansion and upgrading, and listing will become the choice of more and more logistics companies in the future.
(Incomplete statistics of Titanium Media APP)
Seek overseas development
If 2022 is a year for logistics companies to resist pressure, the main tone of 2023 is slow recovery and gradual development.
According to the logistics operation data for the first 11 months of 2023 released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on December 29, from January to November 2023, the total amount of social logistics in the country was 305.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than that from January to October. The monthly growth in November was 6.7%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from October. Since September, the growth rate of total social logistics has continued to rise. As the basic sectors such as industry and consumption continue to recover, logistics demand continues to expand simultaneously.
According to the data of Double 11 in 2023, the logistics demand of live streaming e-commerce increased by more than 18% year-on-year. From January to November, the national online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.3% year-on-year, accounting for 27.5% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared with the first ten months. There is strong demand for logistics from emerging platform areas such as live-streaming e-commerce and new retail.
Nevertheless, when the Chinese market tends to be saturated and the involution intensifies, the demand for logistics companies to fully enter the international market has been clearly visible.
According to the "2022-2027 China Cross-border E-commerce Market Demand Forecast and Development Trend Prospect Report", by 2022, the number of cross-border logistics enterprises in mainland China will reach 146661, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%. As of October 2023, the number of cross-border logistics companies has reached 156719, with a significant growth rate. Express delivery companies such as SF Express, Cainiao, and JD Logistics are also accelerating the pace of going overseas and actively expanding the international market to enhance their global competitiveness.
JD Logistics has launched the "International Express" service, which not only meets the delivery needs of consumers, but also demonstrates the determination and ability of JD Logistics in the process of internationalization. Cainiao will further improve the coverage and timeliness of international express services by increasing international routes, upgrading logistics facilities and strengthening cooperation with international partners.
J&T's IPO prospectus also showed that it expects to continue to make significant investments to expand its global reach and international business, as well as compete with local competitors. Continuing to expand its network, investing in innovation and technology, and expanding into new markets and countries will be important trends for J&T in the coming period.
Taking SF Express, for example, plans to make a secondary listing on the Hong Kong stock market, with the goal of "becoming a leader in the global logistics industry". The prospectus submitted by SF Holding clearly stated that it plans to further expand the coverage of the logistics network and improve the logistics network infrastructure. The plan further strengthens its global and cross-border capabilities, deepens its coverage in existing international markets such as Southeast Asia, and strengthens SF's presence in high-growth markets. It also mentioned that it will selectively pursue strategic acquisitions, investments and partnerships that will help SF Express become a global logistics leader.
Whether it's infrastructure construction, cross-border development, and strategic acquisitions, more capital investment is needed. At the same time, endorsement through listing is also one of the important factors to enhance international influence and enhance cross-border development capabilities.
At present, many logistics companies have been listed in China. With the acceleration of going overseas and the increase in overseas construction investment, overseas listing has become the choice of many logistics companies.
Compared with U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, as one of the largest capital markets in Asia, continue to attract the attention of Chinese logistics companies. In 2022, only one logistics company, Yucheng Logistics, will be listed on the Hong Kong stock market, and this year, four logistics companies will be successfully listed on the Hong Kong stock market.
Digital and intelligent upgrades are accelerating
In the past, the logistics industry did not lack scale effects, but most of the logistics enterprises are still labor-intensive and capital-intensive. The premise of digital intelligence is that the concentration of the industry is further improved.
Judging from the China Express Development Index released by the State Post Bureau in the first 11 months of 2023, the China Express Development Index in November 2023 was 406.4, an increase of 20% year-on-year, and the monthly index increased year-on-year. The scale of the industry continues to expand.
At the same time, the concentration of the logistics industry is increasing. Taking express delivery as an example, as of 2022, China's express parcel service brand concentration index has reached 84.5%, and the industry concentration has further improved. From January to October 2023, the express and parcel service brand concentration index CR8 was 84.1%, almost the same as last year.
This also reflects the continuous maturity of the industrial chain, and the logistics enterprises have entered a mature stage. But at the same time, the requirements for logistics companies in terms of integrating resources, improving efficiency and improving service quality are getting higher and higher.
In terms of timeliness, Chinese logistics companies can be said to have reached the extreme. Compared with 2022, the timeliness of China's express delivery will continue to improve in 2023. According to the monitoring data of the State Post Bureau, the full time limit of express delivery service in the first quarter of 2023 will be 60.48 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 4.09 hours, the full time limit of express delivery service in the second quarter of 2023 will be 53.99 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 8.98 hours, and the full time limit of express service in the third quarter of 2023 will be 54.24 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5 hours.
During the "Double 11" period, hourly delivery and half-day delivery are not new, and the pursuit of minute delivery by logistics companies has covered more and more regions.
In 2023, the competition between logistics companies in timeliness and service will become more and more intense. Behind the fierce competition is the investment and innovation of logistics technology.
In the context of "Industry 4.0", China's industrial transformation and upgrading, the logistics industry in order to reduce costs and increase efficiency, also continue to make intelligent attempts. Intelligent robots with handling, palletizing, sorting and other functions have become a hot spot in the logistics industry. According to Fairfiel's report, the logistics robot market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 23.7% during 2021-2025, and the expected market value of the logistics robot market is expected to be USD 12,739.1 million by 2025.
In addition, in recent years, the application scenarios of drones in the logistics industry have been expanding. From small delivery drones for instant delivery to large and medium-sized transport drones between cities. Drones have further improved logistics efficiency and accelerated the transformation of logistics ecology. According to forecasts, by 2040, drone delivery could account for 30% of same-day parcel deliveries. According to the Shenzhen UAV Industry Association, by 2024, the domestic market size of UAVs will reach 160 billion yuan, of which the UAV market size in express logistics is about 30 billion yuan.
Moreover, the comprehensive transportation system of highways, railways, aviation, water transport and other comprehensive transportation systems has made joint efforts, and multimodal transport has become the "main artery" of economic development. The digital intelligent deployment system runs through it.
From the intelligent automatic sorting equipment of express terminals to the research and development of transportation drones in remote areas, information technology and intelligent equipment are deeply integrated with the logistics industry to promote the turnover and circulation of goods. The pace of logistics enterprises to accelerate transformation and digital intelligence upgrading is also constantly urging them to go public and raise funds for development.
Pursue the position of the leader
Judging from the public information disclosed by relevant logistics companies, such as prospectuses and financing purposes, the expansion of network infrastructure and intelligent and information technology are the keywords for logistics companies to go public. There is no doubt that the competition in the future logistics industry comes from the degree of investment in the power of digital technology.
As the market continues to mature and competition is fierce, a small step ahead may be able to win the market. Whether it is to improve service levels by volume or to improve operational efficiency by relying on digital technology, sufficient funds are needed to improve digital and intelligent construction before the inflection point of the industry comes. Stepping into the capital market is like a competition game between strong competitors in the industry, who is more recognized by the market, who can get a higher valuation, who can get more funds to start technological innovation faster.
The concentration of logistics enterprises to go public also means that capital will bring new transformation and integration capabilities to the logistics industry. With the support of capital, industry integration and ecological construction will accelerate.
In general, there are many reasons for logistics companies to go public, including market opportunities, capital needs and profit motives.
Regarding the reasons for the centralized listing of logistics enterprises, Wang Peng, an associate researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed the titanium media APP, "the market size of the logistics industry is huge, and with the rapid development of e-commerce, manufacturing and other industries, the demand for logistics is growing, providing a broad market space for logistics enterprises." The logistics industry is highly competitive, and companies need to continue to expand their scale, improve service quality and efficiency to maintain a competitive edge. Going public can provide more financial support for enterprises and help them stand out from the competition. Listing requires enterprises to have a high level of financial management and transparency, which is conducive to standardized management of enterprises. At the same time, listing can enhance the brand image and popularity of the enterprise, and enhance the trust of customers in the enterprise. ”
He believes that going public will have a significant impact on the industry. The first is to promote industry integration: listing can provide more financial support for logistics enterprises, help enterprises expand their scale, improve service quality and efficiency, and then promote industry integration and survival of the fittest. The second is to promote industry innovation: listed logistics enterprises usually have strong innovation capabilities and technical strength, and can lead industry technological innovation and service model innovation. The third is to enhance the overall image of the industry: the standardized management and brand image improvement of listed logistics enterprises can drive the improvement of the overall image of the industry and enhance the social awareness and influence of the industry.
Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, also believes that market demand and competitive pressure are the urging agents for logistics companies to go public. He said, "First of all, listing can provide more sources of capital for enterprises, help enterprises expand their scale, improve the level of technology and equipment, and expand the market." Secondly, going public can attract more customers and partners and expand market share. Finally, after going public, companies can attract and retain excellent talent through equity incentive plans. This stimulates the motivation and creativity of employees and drives the development of the business. ”
In 2023, the undercurrent of the logistics industry is surging, and capital not only values the scale and performance of logistics enterprises, but also the scientific and technological innovation ability and intelligence level of logistics enterprises. In the next 2024, in the context of increasingly perfect infrastructure, the penetration rate of logistics digital technology will continue to increase, and intelligent hardware will continue to be put into use, helping the logistics industry to usher in a new round of rapid growth with the further development of AI artificial intelligence.
It is worth noting that under the dual stimulation of market demand growth and capital demand, logistics companies have chosen to go public. But the listing will inevitably bring about a situation where the strong will always be strong.
The cross-border and integration of logistics giants will inevitably squeeze the market space of small and medium-sized enterprises, and some logistics segments will even open a new round of survival of the fittest. After the listing of leading enterprises one after another, 2024 will be full of survival tests for small and medium-sized logistics enterprises, especially those that lack infrastructure and working capital.
Big waves wash the sand. In the future, mergers and acquisitions between logistics companies will be more frequent, and industry concentration will be further improved. Driven by capital, the logistics industry will build a larger ecosystem, accelerate the speed of inward "involution" and outward "mergers and acquisitions", and the competition of enterprises will be more diversified. In the future market competition, first-mover advantage, scale advantage, professionalism and financial support will play an important role.
(This article was first published on the Titanium Media App, author | Yang Xiujuan, editor - Fang Yu)