Image source@Visual China
Text: Surprise Research Institute, Author: Bai Lu, Yugu
The English essayist and philosopher Bacon once said, "Miracles that transcend nature always appear in the conquest of doom." "In the exciting 2023, some industries have suffered great changes, and some individuals are still experiencing turmoil.
In the tide of the times, the observation and experience of individuals are always extraordinarily real. Therefore, at the end of 2023, the Institute invited friends from 10 different industries to share the changes and personal gains in their respective industries. also look back on the bits and pieces of this year from their perspective.
The turmoil will eventually pass, and life will go on. In the new environment, we usher in a new order together.
In 2023, more and more sober
Miao: Game planning
2023 in the gaming industry is enough to describe it with the word "exciting". With the fading of external dividends and the collective entry of the industry into a stage of steady-state growth, coupled with the sudden policy guidance, game manufacturers who are tired of dealing with internal and external conflicts are in confusion.
But in the opinion of A Miao, a former NetEase Games employee, the current situation of the game industry is not surprising at all. "In industries with a lot of hot money, the regulation will generally become stricter. For practitioners, everyone is doing things in a limited industry space, and this industry background has always existed, but now more and more people are beginning to really feel the real atmosphere of the industry.
According to statistics, the number of game versions issued in 2021 is 748, and in 2022 it will be 512. The sharp decline in the number of edition numbers has directly led to the reduction of game projects, intensified competition, and redundancy of talents in the game industry, so from 2022 onwards, many game talents have changed careers, and job opportunities for newcomers in the industry are also decreasing.
However, as of now, the number of editions issued in 2023 has reached 1,075, of which 977 are made in China. On a data standing, the turmoil in the gaming industry has calmed down.
For the future of the industry and individuals, Miao maintains optimistic expectations. "Manufacturers with their own core competitiveness can still make excellent products. The game industry has had a period of expansion, during which the role of capital has been excessively amplified, so when the industry shrinks and capital ebb and flows, it will be found that there are not so many people from the project to the manufacturer. ”
As a 35-year-old game practitioner, A Miao said that the current development of the industry is of great significance to him personally, "Only with the healthy development of the industry, can we practitioners give full play to their strengths in a more refined industrial niche and have more room for growth." ”
Ahe e-commerce operation
2023 is Ahe's fourth year of e-commerce operations in Hangzhou. From the industry dividends seen in 2020 when he came into contact with live broadcast e-commerce, to the market competition led by rational consumption in recent years, Ah He deeply felt the great changes in the industry.
"At present, the biggest problem in the industry is that the channel efficiency is getting lower and lower. According to Ahe, in the past, merchants wanted to focus on a single channel to sell products and services, but in recent years, the conversion effect of public domain traffic has been weakening, and the focus of the entire delivery track has shifted from grabbing public domain traffic to improving the conversion rate.
In addition, consumers' rational propensity to consume has also brought headwinds to the recovery of the industry. "After the full liberalization in 2023, everyone thought that the industry would recover quickly, but the result is that consumers have become more rational and it has become more difficult to sell goods. ”
The impact of changing consumer attitudes on the market is particularly significant. "Some businesses that didn't close down when they were most affected in the previous two years have closed their doors this year. "This year, many merchants did not develop new products, but worked hard to destock. ”
In the face of adversity, Ah He also sees the development trend of the industry more clearly. In the past, when the market had a strong willingness to consume, it was possible to achieve a good GMV target by relying only on low-price promotions, but now consumers are not only concerned about price, but also have higher and higher requirements for products.
"This year, many platforms and anchors are not only emphasizing low prices and giveaways, but have begun to explain the functions and quality of products in more detail, and from the results, consumers do pay for product innovation and product quality. Therefore, it is still necessary to focus on the product, and the product has no vitality and only relies on low prices for a long time. ”
Gao Fei is a partner at Shanghai Baigu Law Firm
In 2023, Gao Fei led the team to establish a new law firm. In a market environment of reduced industry demand and increased external competition, Goofy's new team has unexpectedly developed very smoothly. "Some friends around me said that this year's revenue is only about half of what it used to be, and we will be able to make a profit without losing money in 2023. I guess it's luck!"
Although he verbally attributed everything to luck, Goofy talked more about professionalism when he summed up his results in 2023. According to Gao Fei, this year, when the new team sorted out the business, copyright-related cases were listed as key businesses, and more emphasis was placed on team-based operations.
"After all, the lawyer industry is a technical job, and we maintain professional priority according to the situation of our team members, and constantly reflect our own characteristics and expertise in the process of serving each case, so we have gradually formed a good reputation. This allows us to demonstrate our value in the context of a fully competitive industry. Therefore, my biggest gain in 2023 is that I feel that the company's business model is becoming clearer, its core competitiveness is getting stronger and stronger, and its personnel structure is becoming more and more stable. ”
Of course, Gao Fei also encountered some problems when he took charge of the new team, among which he was impressed by the mismatch between the supply of talent in the industry and the demand of law firms.
Gao Fei said, "Now the law major is a red sea major, and the demand of the industry is not enough to support the supply of talents. Some fresh graduates also have obvious deviations from the industry and their own positioning, so many practitioners who have just entered the industry always feel that the industry is bitter. But in fact, positions such as lawyers and doctors that need to reflect professional value will have a process of growth. ”
坑坑 「ALSO LIVE」工作人员
In 2023, the popularity of the performance market can be felt from the live video of the circle of friends. However, while the industry has recovered suddenly, livehouses, as the main front of young music fans in the past three years, have also encountered some new problems.
The explosion of music festivals has led to problems such as the difficulty in grabbing bands, skyrocketing appearance fees for bands and musicians, and the difficulty of small performance venues to meet market demand. And in the face of the explosive growth of demand, the uneven quality of performances has also made the contradiction between the organizers, venues and music fans more and more prominent. Within the industry, Livehouse's similar competitors are also scrambling for resources and carving up music fans.
For the chaotic industry situation, Kengkeng believes that under the full recovery of the market, revenge performances to make money and revenge performance consumption are the key to the problem. "From undersupply to oversupply, we have never been able to find a relative balance, and those who know and don't want to get a piece of the pie want to get a piece of the pie, so the ecology of the live music performance industry is uneven. ”
Kenkeng mentioned that the current livehouse industry is still in a relatively impetuous period, and the personal quality of practitioners and even music fans is not yet mature. As a result, despite the high growth in the past, the market still faces many challenges.
As a practitioner, Kenkeng believes that the problems existing in the industry will be solved one after another. Especially after the end of this year's blowout revenge performances, the involution of the industry will prompt the performance industry to have certain innovations on the basis of reflection, such as richer performances, more elaborate stage art, better works and more rational consumption. "I also believe that the new performance space, stage art, communication style, and interactive experience of live music will also have a better development with the support of all parties, so that the performance industry ecology will be better and the performance market will be relatively stable. ”
Looking back on his harvest in 2023, Keng said that through live music, he has gained friendships that he wants to cherish, volunteer friends like family at the music festival, colleagues like family at ALSO LIVE, and the right to reshape statues Nanjing concert, and he has also been moved to tears during many performances, "All of this makes me firmly love the music performance industry I am in." ”
Take advantage of new opportunities
Dong Wei is a medical enterprise management
In the past three years, with the increasing attention to physical health, the home medical market has ushered in unprecedented development opportunities. In particular, the sales of blood oxygen monitors, household oxygen concentrators and other products have surged, allowing the outside world to see the broad market of household medical devices.
According to Dong Wei, referring to foreign experience, when the national per capita GDP reaches 12,000-15,000 US dollars, the attention of the household medical device market will grow rapidly. According to media reports, the per capita GDP of Chinese in 2022 has reached 12,700 US dollars, and it is a fact that China's household medical device market has developed rapidly. "Although this year has not had the sharp fluctuations of tens of billions in previous years, it is expected that the household medical device market will still be able to grow by about 20% in 2023. ”
In the context of the rapid growth of the industry, new market competition is also brewing within the household medical products industry. Dong Wei said that in the past, there was no strong market demand to promote, resulting in a lack of product innovation in blood glucose meters, blood pressure monitors and other products for a long time. And because the market structure is relatively stable, some leading companies do not pay enough attention to user experience.
But today's market has unlocked a lot of new scenarios and opportunities. "For example, the nebulizer product was not well recognized by the market before, but now it is more and more recognized by consumers. Therefore, many pharmaceutical companies have also begun to develop atomized drugs, and continue to iterate products to upgrade the consumer experience. ”
In the past few years, the background of the times has provided a boost to the development of the industry, and in 2024, it is more necessary for practitioners to rely on their own efforts to seize the opportunities of the new era.
Next year's "Cool Craftsman" short drama editor
Looking back at 2023 for the skit industry, the skit editor said next year, "The biggest challenge is the policy change. This year's short drama can be described as frightening step by step, and practitioners are frightened, and it is not an exaggeration to say that the industry is changing one day at a time. As for the regulatory policies that caused heated discussions in the second half of the year, the coming year also gave a positive evaluation, "because standardization can make the industry develop longer, at least I think it is good." ”
For the development of the short drama industry, I am full of confidence in the coming year. He said that first of all, vertical screen dramas will definitely be the mainstream of the follow-up. Because among the three content channels of mobile phones, computers, and TVs, the usage scenarios and usage duration of mobile phones are more dominant. While the policy changes in the skit industry have raised eyebrows, from the perspective of industry insiders, regulation has brought more positive significance.
"People in the film and television industry are frantically pouring in. There are other small platforms that are laying out short dramas, and even the investors are joining, which is enough to show the development potential of short dramas, and it will not be like some people say, it will not work at once. On the contrary, the normative role played by the policy can make the industry go longer. ”
* In the coming year at the skit filming site
Under the changes in the industry, the biggest personal feeling for 2023 in the coming year is "volume", and I am afraid that I will be eliminated. "The reason for the fear of being eliminated is not actually a problem of one's own ability. Everyone wants to excel in the industry, but there is always a limit to what an individual can do, so it's important to find the right team. ”
In the coming year, the biggest harvest this year is that I have gained new colleagues, new circles, and a new understanding of myself. "I feel like I've been able to grow in a new industry and I've been given the space to use my abilities. "The drastic changes in the external environment have made the next year see that the threshold for entering the industry is becoming higher, as an individual, you need to huddle together to warm up and resist risks, but it can also exercise your personal ability.
Xiao Fan: Tour guide
For newcomer tour guide Xiao Fan, 2023 is a year full of surprises and challenges.
After graduating from school in 2021, Xiaofan has maintained a state of "semi-employment". "Overseas travel has stopped, and it is not very convenient to travel across provinces. There are still some tours in the province, but as a newcomer, I have few opportunities to lead a group. ”
Xiao Fan said that in 2022, I also considered whether to change careers to do something else, and I also went to deliver express delivery for two days. "But since the beginning of this year, whether it is the market heat or the crowded scene, I have realized that this is what this industry should be. ”
According to Xiao Fan, after the popularity of Zibo barbecue in the first half of the year, the recovery of tourism can be clearly felt. However, compared with the traditional tourism methods based on groups in the past, the demand for small groups and customized tours will grow rapidly in 2023. At the same time, some Internet celebrity cities have also attracted a lot of independent tourists. These industry phenomena have given Xiao Fan some inspiration.
"One is that everyone is still worried about the risk of traveling, so they choose to go out with relatives and friends in a small group. In addition, today's consumers are paying more and more attention to quality. Xiao Fan said that although the price of group travel is more cost-effective, the experience of playing is limited, and the new travel methods of small groups, in-depth tours and independent travel allow tourists to have more time to experience the local life atmosphere.
"Like CityWalk, which is more popular this year, in fact, everyone is not to save money, but to really explore the essence and authenticity of a city. In Xiao Fan's view, the purpose of many people's travel today is not to check in to scenic spots, but to find a new environment to relax their hearts, which brings challenges to the traditional tourism industry with group travel as the core, but it is also a new opportunity.
"In fact, it can be seen on social media that many young people do not sign up for tours when they go out. During the holidays, some people will choose to go to star-rated hotels or homestays for vacation, and some people may find a fourth- or fifth-tier city to stay for a weekend. Therefore, I think that in the future, the tourism market may develop towards refinement and personalization. The value of tourism services also needs to be redefined. ”
Xiao Fan told the Surprise Research Institute that he plans to partner with his friends to open a travel studio next year, specializing in providing customized in-depth gameplay in niche popular cities, "Although I haven't done much serious work as a tour guide, but in the face of the new environment and new market, I think I can still try to seize new opportunities." ”
2024, look ahead
Aunt Wu is the owner of the snack bar
2023 in the offline catering industry is full of challenges, but compared with the difficult situation of the chain giants, Aunt Wu, who runs a snack bar, said that she did not feel too much pressure. "I have a pension, so I can do it or not. ”
According to Aunt Wu, 2023 is her 8th year running a snack bar. Before that, she had set up a stall, worked part-time, opened an early stall, and sold finger cakes. "At that time, I didn't have a job and I had children at home, so I had to figure it out on my own. Later, after saving a little money, I wanted to start a small business on my own. ”
Aunt Wu's snack bar is located near the community and is mainly engaged in neighborhood business. Because of the location and area, the rent is not too high, "the rent is 3,000 yuan per month, and the water and electricity are less than 4,000." Usually it can sell five or six hundred a day, and when the business is particularly good, it can sell thousands of dollars. However, this year's business is not as good as before, there may be two or three hundred a day, and at the worst time, it is only one or two hundred a day. ”
Aunt Wu told the Surprise Research Institute that when the business was affected at the beginning, she also tried to take some takeaway orders to maintain her income for a while. But this year, she stopped taking delivery services. "Takeaway can increase turnover, but in the end, when I calculate the account, half of the money is earned by the platform, so I still work for others!"
In the face of the decline in business performance, Aunt Wu said: "The environment is like this now, but it is useless to be anxious, and the landlord will not give you free rent." Earn less and earn less, and if you can stick to it, you can stick to it. The big deal is that I closed the shop and went back to set up a stall. It's not the first time this kind of thing has happened. No one can always have smooth sailing, and if you don't do it well this year, you will continue to do it next year. Looking ahead, there will always be a day when things get better. ”
Guo Kai Real estate agent
As a real estate agent with 5 years of experience, Guo Kai's 2023 is like a roller coaster. "Our main source of income in this industry is to help customers sell their homes. But the market was too bad in the first half of this year, and I could only rely on the introduction of rents to maintain my income. At the beginning of the third quarter, I slowly saw hope. ”
According to Guo Kai's analysis, the explosion of real estate companies and the shrinking of the market are the macro reasons for the cold real estate market, but the market reaction does not mean that everyone has no demand for buying houses. "In fact, there are many people who are holding the currency and watching to see how low the price can be. Therefore, in the first two months, after the provident fund loan policy in Wuhan was relaxed, many customers from surrounding cities made a special trip to Wuhan to see houses on weekends. From new homes to second-hand houses, people ask, but the time for customers to make decisions has become longer. ”
For the future market trend, Guo Kai remains optimistic. "Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities may continue to fall, after all, the bubble was too big before. However, second-hand housing in second-tier cities like Wuhan may not fall too much. Because when the supply of new homes is sufficient, the demand for second-hand houses is not much. In addition, there are many second-hand houses on the market that have just been handed over in recent years, and the deed tax cost is relatively high. I have many clients who have directly told me that the house is optimistic, but they want to wait a little longer, wait until it is two or five years old before trading. ”
Guo Kai told the Surprise Research Institute that in the short term, the real estate market may not be as lively as before, but the market demand still exists. "In fact, the influx of migrants has created a steady stream of market demand. A lot of the clients I've received recently are children who work in Wuhan and whose parents want to live with their children after retirement. Therefore, for the market in 2024, I maintain a rational view and do not expect particularly high growth, but I judge that second-hand housing may usher in a new stage. ”
Master Wang, an online ride-hailing driver
When it comes to the recent situation in the online car-hailing industry, 50-year-old Master Wang has a stomach to say. According to Master Wang, compared with before, the income of today's online car-hailing drivers has shrunk by at least 40%. "In the past, twelve hours a day, I easily ran 10,000 yuan a month, deducting rent, commission, electricity bills and seven or eight thousand. Now that I run down in a month, the flow is only seven or eight thousand, how do you compare it to before?"
The research institute has learned that the decrease in the income of online ride-hailing drivers is not due to a decrease in demand, but to the weakening of platform subsidies. And in order to compete for market share, the platforms have started a price war, and online car-hailing drivers have become the ones who pay for the fierce battle of the giants.
Master Wang said that he once calculated an account: when he ran an order in the city, the driver got an average profit of less than 5 cents per kilometer, and he only earned 5 yuan after running ten kilometers. "If you want to earn 5,000 yuan a month, you have to run 10,000 kilometers. You have to sit in the car for more than ten hours a day. So this job seems easy, but it actually earns hard-earned money. Among the drivers I know, there is no lumbar spine that is fine. ”
Referring to the fact that many people regard ride-hailing drivers as an alternative career, Master Wang said, "Young people should not do this, if you do, you will be wasted." Don't feel that this job has a low threshold and is very easy, now that the online car-hailing market is saturated, it is as involuted as other industries. If there is no other better option for the time being, it is better to study the new industry, I think AI has been very popular recently, young people have energy and brains, and they should boldly try it. ”
When talking about his wishes for 2024, Master Wang paused for a while and replied: "The job is still this job, I just hope the market will not get worse." If I could, it would be better for my son to tie the knot next year. But it can't be forced. Let it be and look ahead!"
*A Miao, A He, Kengkeng, Dong Wei, Coming Year, Xiao Fan, and Guo Kai are pseudonyms in the article.