China's auto exports will rank first in the world, and BYD will have the last laugh
Annual sales are expected to exceed 30 million units
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Author: Truman
Looking back on the last working day of 2023, Chinese cars are finally out of breath.
This year's annual export volume will surpass that of Japan and become the world's No. 1 is a foregone conclusion.
In 2009, the mainland produced and sold more than 13.5 million vehicles, surpassing the United States for the first time and becoming the world's largest automobile production and sales country, and has maintained this record for more than ten consecutive years since then.
Compared with the domestic market, foreign countries need to compete with local giants for share, so the level of export volume in the usual sense can better explain the quality and reputation of the product.
This year, although involution is the background color of the industry, it also shows that Chinese car companies are not to be left behind, and they are constantly tempered in the mutual struggle. In just a few years, it has run through the road of overseas car companies for ten years or even longer.
The results are obvious, in 2023 we will see a different new energy vehicle, and the most important thing is that more and more Chinese brand trams have begun to drive to all corners of the world.
01
New energy vehicles are soaring
Yesterday, Japan's Kyodo News Agency reported that according to data released by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA), China's automobile exports are expected to surpass Japan's this year, becoming the world's first for the first time.
According to data released by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA), China's automobile exports in the first 11 months of this year have reached 4.412 million units, a year-on-year increase of 65.1%, exceeding Japan's exports of 3.99 million units in the same period.
This also means that China's automobile exports will be the first in the world.
In fact, as early as the first quarter, China surpassed Japan's 1.047 million car exports in the same period with 1.069 million units, a year-on-year increase of 54%, and became the world's largest car exporter for the first time.
At that time, South Korean media lamented that they were very shocked by the changes in the reputation and market share of Chinese automobiles, and South Korea's "Chosun Ilbo" wrote, "China's auto exports surpassed South Korea for the first time in 2021, surpassed Germany last year to become the world's second largest exporter, and actually surpassed Japan in the first quarter of this year." ”
Not only in the first quarter, but after the end of the second quarter, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun published an article saying that China's auto industry surpassed Japan for the first time in the first half of 2023 to become the world's largest auto exporter, and the Japanese finally realized the seriousness of the problem.
Some Japanese insiders believe that while Chinese auto companies are expanding significantly in the international market, the overseas business of Japanese companies has stagnated, and "it is only a matter of time before China's auto exports surpass Japan!"
Prior to this, China's exports remained at around 1 million units in 2020, then exploded to 2.015 million units in 2021 and doubled again to 3.111 million units last year.
Why are China's car exports growing by leaps and bounds?
The Japanese attribute this to the explosion of new energy vehicles, arguing that the main contribution of China's auto exports this year is from the export of electric vehicles.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first 11 months of this year, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.091 million units, a year-on-year increase of 83.5%.
In addition, in the context of international conflicts, many car companies have withdrawn from Russia, and our exports of fuel vehicles to Russia are growing rapidly.
Japanese media believe that the reason is that Chinese car companies have continuously improved their technical capabilities with the support of the government and achieved export growth of low-cost and high-quality pure electric vehicles. At present, China's exports of "new energy vehicles" are not only growing in European markets such as Belgium and the United Kingdom, but also in Southeast Asia, which is regarded as an important market by Japanese companies.
It is true that some objective factors have provided favorable conditions for the export of automobiles in the mainland, but such results are not accidental, but the inevitable development of China's automobile industry for many years.
Since 2009, the domestic new energy automobile industry has begun to grow savagely, although there have been falsehoods, fraud and other phenomena in the process, but also gave birth to new players such as Wei Xiaoli, Xiaomi, and Huawei. In the era of new energy, Chinese automobiles have completely achieved corner overtaking.
02
BYD or Super Tesla
China has become the largest exporter of automobiles, and it is naturally inseparable from the help of domestic car companies.
According to the data disclosed by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, SAIC Motor Motor contributed the most to vehicle exports from January to November this year, with 1.067 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, which has exceeded SAIC's export volume for the whole of last year.
After SAIC is Chery, Changan, Great Wall, Geely and other independent car companies. Chery exported 837,000 units, up 1.1 times y/y, and Great Wall exported 283,000 units, up 84.8% y/y.
From January to November this year, among China's vehicle export enterprises, SAIC, Chery Automobile, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motor, Geely Automobile, Dongfeng Motor, BYD, etc. have become the main forces.
In terms of growth rate, BYD is the fastest, with a significant increase in exports, with a total of 216,000 new cars exported in the first 11 months, a year-on-year increase of 3.6 times, and BYD's exports were only 53,600 last year.
While the export volume has skyrocketed, BYD's volume is also growing rapidly. Bloomberg predicted on the 27th that in the fourth quarter of 2023, BYD's electric vehicle sales may surpass Tesla and become the world's first.
Bloomberg pointed out that BYD's high-selling models are more competitive than Tesla in terms of price compared to Tesla's higher selling price.
"This will be a symbolic turning point in the electric vehicle market and a further confirmation of China's growing influence in the global automotive industry. ”
Business Insider also agreed with Bloomberg's prediction and used data to prove that in the third quarter of this year, BYD's electric vehicle sales were only 3,000 fewer than Tesla's. Therefore, analysts believe that when the sales data for the fourth quarter of this year is announced, BYD is likely to surpass Tesla.
In China, data released by a third party on December 26 showed that from December 1 to December 24, 2023, BYD sold 180,000 new energy brands in the Chinese market, much higher than Tesla (60,200), which ranked second.
According to BYD's sales from November 1 to November 26, BYD was 178,000 units at that time, and it is estimated that its wholesale volume in December may exceed that of November. If the current growth rate continues in the last week of December, there will be no problem in achieving the full-year sales target.
Bloomberg also believes that Tesla is still ahead of BYD in terms of revenue, profit and market capitalization.
However, analysts at Bernstein, an American investment research firm, expect the gap to narrow significantly next year. They expect Tesla's full-year 2024 sales to reach $114 billion, while BYD's $112 billion. Judging from these two forecasts alone, the two are very close.
According to the website of the German news TV channel, Tesla's strongest attacker is not a German or Japanese car company, but BYD, which is little known in Germany.
In 2009, China became the world's largest country in automobile production and sales for the first time. In 2015, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest new energy vehicle market. In 2023, China will surpass Japan to become the world's largest exporter of automobiles.
The next competition is also obvious, that is, AI, more than one big man judges, the future of automobiles, will be AI and robots.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch once released a report saying that "by 2030, China is expected to surpass the United States and become the world leader in AI." ”
This also means that the potential energy of China's automobile growth will continue and will play an irreplaceable leading role in the global automotive industry.