The Russian army has taken an important "nail household" in eastern Ukraine, and the performance of the United States and Ukraine shows that both countries know that they are not in a good situation. Now Zelensky, there are two paths to take.
In recent days, Russian troops have made significant progress in the Donetsk direction, completely capturing Maryinka.
How important is this victory?
You must know that Maryinka has been a strategic stronghold of the Ukrainian army for many years, and for the Russian army, it is a real "nail household". Since the beginning of the Donbass war in 2014, the Ukrainian army has launched an offensive from Maryinka and Avadiv to the Ukrainian militia in Donetsk. In particular, the artillery of the Ukrainian army has been shelling Donetsk almost every day for 9 years.
After the Russian army launched the "special military operation", the armed forces of eastern Ukraine launched a counterattack on these two cities with the assistance of the Russian regular army, but the offensive did not go smoothly until after October this year, when the progress of the Russian army suddenly began to accelerate.
Russian army shelled Ukrainian positions
The progress of the Russian army is actually not unexpected, on the one hand, because the Ukrainian army lost a large number of personnel and equipment in the "spring counteroffensive", and weapons and ammunition are also lacking because of the increasingly passive assistance of the West.
On the other hand, after a year of recuperation, the Russian army has been fully replenished with personnel and equipment.
After the Russian army occupied Maryinka, it liberated a large number of troops for the offensive on other fronts, such as the Russian army in Maryinka has now begun to attack south, preparing to flank Novomykhailka. The Ukrainian army in Avadiivka is therefore in an isolated position. The Ukrainian military has already released rumors that it will abandon the city.
It can be said that the breakthrough in Maryinka opened a new situation for the Russian army in the Donetsk direction.
At this time, the performance of the United States and Ukraine is interesting.
The White House has been silent about new developments in the Russian military. After all, publicizing this Russian military advance will be a very heavy blow to the morale of the West, and it will also make Republicans firmly abandon Ukraine's position, which is not conducive to Biden's campaign. Therefore, keeping silent is the best option.
This silence also shows that the U.S. government has to start thinking about the impact of Ukraine's defeat, especially on U.S. political stability and partisanship.
As for Ukraine, it is also unassuming, just saying that the Ukrainian army has withdrawn. Obviously, Ukraine, like the United States, is well aware of the difficult situation.
Weapons aided by the United States to Ukraine
Ukraine now has to think about two things, the first is how to try to keep Western money flowing into Ukraine. This is also the first path that Zelensky can take.
The Democratic Party of the United States really wants to aid Ukraine, and has submitted a plan of more than 60 billion to Congress for aid to Ukraine, but it has been vetoed by the Republican Party. The European Union also has a 50 billion euro aid package, but it was vetoed by countries such as Hungary.
These two major funds are directly related to the financial problems of the Ukrainian government next year and will determine the life and death of Ukraine, so Ukraine is particularly concerned. Not long ago, Zelensky also sent an ambassador to visit the United States, hoping that the United States would provide assistance as soon as possible. Zelensky has also repeatedly expressed his desire to visit Israel in order to maintain international popularity.
In addition, on the battlefield, although Ukraine cannot make a breakthrough on the front, it has achieved some results and propaganda through some tactical attacks, such as ambushing the fighters of the Russian Air Force and using long-range weapons to strike seaports and warships, in order to show the West that Ukraine "can still fight" with Western assistance.
I have to say that the Zelensky government has done its best to "ask for money" from the West. However, judging from the current effect, it is very unsatisfactory, and this may also be what it is like for the Ukrainians to really feel that their fate is in the hands of the West since the "color revolution".
Zelensky and Biden are really making their own calculations
If Western aid ultimately does not arrive, Zelensky may have to consider another path, which is to accept defeat on the battlefield. Although this does not mean that Ukraine will surrender, at that time, Ukraine will have to shrink its forces, reduce its investment, and tear down the east wall to make up the west wall to maintain its finances.
But it also basically means that Russia will occupy the land they want and declare victory in the war. This disguised surrender may save half of Ukraine, and Ukraine may still exist in the world as an independent state, but such an outcome is likely to displease the West.
Because even if Ukraine wants to surrender, it should surrender under the leadership of the West, and if Ukraine takes the initiative to admit defeat, the West will lose trust in it, and then Ukraine may completely lose aid from the West, and Ukraine will fall further into turmoil.
Therefore, Zelensky's two paths are actually not easy to take.