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On December 27, Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said at a media conference that the competition pattern of the new energy vehicle industry has entered a "period of deep reshaping". Next year should be a year of more intense competition and a more fragmented competitive landscape. The next two years are too critical, and the companies that should withdraw will basically withdraw in these two years, and the companies that should be successful will rise rapidly.
Looking forward to the coming year, Zhang Yongwei optimistically predicts that the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles in mainland China is expected to reach 13 million units in 2024, with a growth rate of about 40%, the overall penetration rate of more than 40%, and the monthly penetration rate of the passenger car field is expected to exceed 50%, ushering in an important milestone in industrial development. He believes that the forecast of 11 million units given by some institutions is "slightly conservative".
In view of the development environment of enterprises, Zhang Yongwei pointed out that the development environment of the automotive industry, especially the new energy vehicle industry, in 2024 and 2025 will be "more involuted", "I think other industries still have a chance to breathe, and I can take a breath when I am tired." In the new energy vehicle industry, you can only run faster and faster, without stopping, slowing down, or respite. The competitive environment of our industry is about who runs faster than whom, and who is more resistant to pressure than whom. ”
-- China's new energy vehicle market share ranks first in the world
In terms of market share, the global market share of new energy vehicles will reach 13.3% in 2022, of which China has the highest market share of new energy vehicles, reaching 24.4% in 2022, followed by Europe, with a market share of 17.3%. Compared with the average market share of 13.3% in the global new energy vehicle market, it can be seen that the market share of new energy vehicles in India and Japan is low, and the future market space is relatively broad.
Note: New energy vehicle market share = new energy vehicle sales / total sales volume of the corresponding automobile market
——The new generation of information technology promotes continuous innovation in the new energy vehicle industry
The technological innovation trend of China's new energy vehicle industry will pay more attention to the application of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, intelligent vehicles, Internet of Vehicles technology, autonomous driving technology, and cloud computing technology, and the development of these technologies will further promote the development of the entire industry.
-- Pure electric vehicles will continue to develop rapidly
From the perspective of market segment development trends, the pure electric market still has a large space for development in the future, and plug-in hybrid vehicles have the possibility of being replaced in the future. At present, fuel cell vehicles have not yet formed a large-scale individual user group, and they are still mainly used in commercial scenarios.
-- There is huge room for growth in China's new energy vehicle sales
In October 2020, the State Council issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", which clarified that by 2025, new energy vehicles will account for about 20% of new vehicle sales. According to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of automobiles in mainland China will reach 30 million units in 2025, and according to the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Automotive Industry (2023-2024)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in September 2023, it is planned that the sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China will reach 9 million units in 2023.
Looking forward to the development trend of China's new energy vehicle industry in 2024, Zhang Yongwei said that the growth momentum of the new energy vehicle industry will continue and enter the stage of annual sales of tens of millions of vehicles. It is expected that the retail sales of automobiles will exceed 5 trillion yuan in 2024, of which new energy vehicles will exceed 2 trillion yuan.
Zhang Yongwei further said that the status of China's new energy vehicle industry in the world will be further enhanced, and the global sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 20 million units in 2024, and China will contribute more than 60% of global sales.
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