In the first two articles, we talked about two effects of technological development, namely technological substitution and technological revolution. The technological substitution is that machines and the Internet have taken away some low-end jobs, such as typists, taxi drivers, cashiers, and so on. This effect, while lowering employment, also makes society more efficient and affluent because it lowers costs, improves efficiency, increases consumption, and creates new markets.
The technological revolution is the emergence of some new, disruptive and revolutionary technologies, such as smartphones, mobile Internet, artificial intelligence, and so on. This effect has not only changed people's mode of production, but also changed people's way of life, and even changed people's way of thinking. The technological revolution will bring about huge social changes and huge employment opportunities. However, there is another effect of technological development, which we can call technical tinkering. What is technical tinkering? It is to make some minor improvements and adjustments to the existing technology, such as increasing the pixels of the mobile phone, increasing the functions of the APP, optimizing the interface of the software, and so on. Technical tinkering, which looks like perfecting technology, is actually destroying technology. Why?
Because technical tinkering will not bring new products and services, nor will it meet people's new needs and desires, but will make some irrelevant modifications on the original basis. Technical patching will make the technology more mature and stable, and will also improve the performance and quality of the technology, but it will also reduce the marginal benefit of the technology, and will also make the innovation and attractiveness of the technology reduced. Technical tinkering can make your work more boring and useless.
Let's first look at the example of mobile phones, the emergence of smartphones, is a technological revolution, it has changed people's lifestyles, but also brought huge employment opportunities. However, the development of smartphones also has a limit, that is, human needs and desires. A person can't always buy a new mobile phone every day, and the function and performance of the mobile phone also have a saturation point, beyond which people will not feel the obvious difference. For example, when the pixels of a mobile phone go from 1 million to 10 million, the user's experience will change decisively. But now, you have gone to great lengths to increase the number of pixels on your phone from 50 million to 500 million, and at this time, people can no longer feel the change, because the human eye can't even experience much difference. This is an example of technical tinkering, which only makes some small improvements to the original technology, but does not bring new markets and opportunities, but will increase the cost of the technology, reduce profits, increase competition, and reduce jobs.
Let's take a look at the example of the Internet, the emergence of the mobile Internet is also a technological revolution, which creates countless new products and services, but also meets people's new needs and desires, but also creates countless new markets and opportunities, which need more people to participate and promote. However, the development of the mobile Internet also has a limit, that is, human time and energy. A person can't always play with his mobile phone every day, and the APP on his mobile phone also has a saturation point, beyond which people will not feel fresh and interesting.
For example, when social software goes from QQ to WeChat, the user's experience is a qualitative leap. But now, if you launch a new social software, then at this time, people will no longer feel attractive, because people's social circles are also limited, and it is impossible to always meet new friends, and old friends, and there are no new topics. This is another example of technical tinkering, which only makes some minor adjustments to the original technology, but does not bring new markets and opportunities, but makes the technology less innovative, more competitive, and fewer jobs.
In general, without revolutionary technological breakthroughs, technology will inevitably kill employment. That's very simple, 1500 years ago, because of technical limitations, it took a person half a year to weave a piece of cloth. So today, with the highest technology and machines, the entire human race of 8 billion people only needs less than 1 million people to meet all textile needs. However, human needs are limited. A person can't always buy new clothes every day. Globally, it has a population of 8 billion, and this market, it is not unlimited. Today, the difficulty of finding employment in China is not only a problem for us as individuals, but also for the whole world. Because since the breakthrough of the Internet, there has been no new technology that is revolutionary and changes our lives. The only shadow that can be seen is GPT, which is an artificial intelligence technology that can generate all kinds of text, such as news, novels, poems, code, and more.
In the future, it will have a rapid development, however, after the development of GPT, it will bring a wave of layoffs, because it will replace more positions, such as writing, translation, editing, and so on. Silicon Valley in the United States, since two years ago, began to lay off employees. Whether it is Twitter or Amazon, not only is he not expanding, but he is also laying off employees. Up to now, the employment problem, or economic problem, is a common problem faced by all mankind. Its underlying roots are still in the development of technology.
If war had been waged 100 years ago, war would have been waged long ago, and demand would have been generated by war, or in other words, war would have been relied upon to promote the development of technology. But now, humanity has to thank that with nuclear weapons, there is a balance between the great powers. Therefore, it is very difficult for a large-scale war to occur. What we just talked about was technology.
Next, I want to say that before there is a decisive breakthrough in technology, the great power game is the only efficient means to solve the employment rate. The reason is very simple, so why, the American and Western groups, his life pressure is less than ours, his welfare is higher than ours, and his position is more high-end than ours?
First, the United States and the Western bloc, he has the right to speak, luxury goods, and brand power. They make a package, and the profit generated is worth 10,000 bags for us. Second, the United States and Western groups, they have the underlying technology, they make chips, make engines, not only high profits, but also the supply chain is very long, and there are more high-end formats to solve. Third, the US-Western bloc, which has the right to mint money, can directly print banknotes, distribute benefits, and let the world bear the consequences of their inflation. If we had 100 Hermes, 100 apples, plus mintage, would the problem we face today? These three issues are directly related to the international discourse, the Sino-US science and technology game, and the internationalization of the RMB. That's why it's getting harder and harder to find jobs.