The article tells a story that involves both military and strategic issues, talking about tensions in the South China Sea region and the options that China may face. In a simple and easy-to-understand preface, it can be expressed like this:
"Today, we are going to talk about a story full of military strategy, about China's important choices in the South China Sea region. The article mentions the complex situation in the South China Sea and the tactics that China may adopt in the face of challenges. "
Japanese Prime Minister's visit to the Philippines, strategic analysis of the South China Sea
On November 3, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to visit the Philippines, a visit that will be a key event in the South China Sea strategy. At the same time, the Philippines will send staff officers to participate in joint military exercises in the Sea of Japan by the United States, Australia and Canada, indicating its ambitions in the South China Sea. This article will analyze why Japan chose to work with the Philippines rather than directly challenge China.
There is no shame in pinching soft persimmons
In international politics, the proverb "there is no shame in pinching a soft persimmon" is often used to emphasize choosing to challenge targets that are relatively fragile and easier to deal with, rather than directly confronting powerful opponents. In the current situation in the South China Sea, the Philippines seems to have become this "persimmon with strategic vision", while China's Frog Island is the powerful "persimmon". Choosing to challenge the Philippines seems to be more of a strategic interest, as it can provide more advantages in terms of geographical location, military power, and strategic stage.
Strategically located
The article mentions that the Philippines occupies eight islands in the South China Sea, which are geographically important, and controlling them means controlling the sovereignty barrier of the South China Sea. This can be used not only to restrict shipping in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, but also to put pressure on their economies. By mastering these strategic locations, Japan can effectively exert influence in the South China Sea.
Strategic phase
The article discusses a strategic plan consisting of three strategic phases. Start with small-scale operations and escalate to eventually divide the Philippines and take control of important areas. This phased strategy takes into account the risks and costs of Frog Island and passes them on to the Philippines, thus gaining an advantageous position in the geopolitical competition.
Comparison of military power
The article compares the military power of China and the Philippines. There is no doubt that China is far ahead in terms of military power, and the Philippines will struggle to withstand a Chinese attack when war breaks out. This makes challenging the Philippines relatively low-risk, as China is unlikely to confront a relatively weak country directly.
Strategic Context
The article mentions that countries such as the United States will face greater financial pressure, and if they get involved in a war with the Philippines, this is similar to the Ukraine crisis, but on a larger scale. Therefore, Japan's choice to challenge the Philippines rather than directly challenge China also reflects its consideration of the international context and the financial constraints of all parties.
Selected strategic objectives
The article stresses that it is more strategic to choose to challenge the Philippines rather than China. Because China, as a big country, is more difficult to control and has more strategic variables. As a small country, the Philippines is more susceptible to external pressure and therefore a more strategic target.
Strategy map
The importance of the South China Sea throughout the Asia-Pacific region was emphasized, especially as control of the South China Sea could limit the actions of other countries. This also provides an explanation for why the South China Sea region has become the focus of geopolitical competition.
Prevent the Philippines from following suit
Finally, the article highlights the need to prevent the Philippines from using high-tech weapons such as drones, which could expand in the South China Sea conflict. It also shows Japan's deep analysis of the situation in the South China Sea and its concern about possible variables.
Taken together, this article explains why Japan chose to work with the Philippines rather than directly challenge China. The importance of factors such as strategic vision, geographical location, strategic stage and military power balance was emphasized. This analysis contributes to a better understanding of the geopolitical dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region and the role that countries play in it.