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Recently, amid tensions across the Taiwan Strait, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a combat readiness patrol around the island and the "Joint Sword" exercise to counter U.S. collusion with Taiwan. However, the Philippines took the initiative to participate in it, which sparked widespread discussion.
The Manila Times, a Philippine media, believes that the exercise of the Chinese People's Liberation Army may be aimed at the defense cooperation agreement signed between the United States and the Philippines, which involves US military bases in the Philippines. This cooperation agreement actually provides logistical support for the United States to implement its strategy in the Taiwan Strait.
Under the agreement, the United States could set up military installations at three military bases in the Philippines, all located in northern Luzon, facing Taiwan. If the U.S. uses these bases to operate, the Philippines could become a potential conflict zone.
The Philippines fears that the PLA's round-the-island maneuvers could lead to two adverse consequences. First, they fear that the PLA may continue to reclaim land, as they did on Scarborough Shoal. This has caused concern in the Philippines, because after the Scarborough Shoal crisis, China reclaimed land and even built a 2,700-meter-long runway, which stopped the Philippines' attempts to expand its influence in the South China Sea.
What really worries the Philippines, however, is that land reclamation is just the beginning. The possible subsequent deployment of Chinese military installations on these artificial islands is a matter of greater concern. The Philippines will gradually lose control of Scarborough Shoal and its surrounding waters, which will pose a threat to the country's national security.
Second, the Philippines fears that economic and trade relations between China and the Philippines will be damaged, similar to the wrong approach of the Morrison government in Australia. China is the Philippines' largest trading partner, and cooperation between the two countries has broad prospects. China is also a major export market for Philippine agricultural products, especially fruits and other agricultural products. However, in some past South China Sea disputes, China has taken some measures, such as restricting the import of certain Philippine fruits and reducing Chinese tourists' travel to the Philippines, which has led to economic losses for the Philippines.
In summary, the Philippines' concerns stem primarily from the U.S.-Philippines Defense Cooperation Agreement, which links U.S. strategic needs with the country's national security needs. However, the agreement has been controversial in the Philippines, with some politicians and ordinary citizens worried that U.S. geopolitical goals could jeopardize the country's national interests. Now, the Philippines has felt the pressure from the PLA, and it is beginning to re-examine its relationship with China and the United States, suggesting that dialogue and compromise may still be the way to solve the problem.
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