In the past two days, the Philippine Coast Guard has publicized that it has found signs of artificial reclamation in the investigation of Xianbin Reef, and directly pointed the finger at China, claiming that it is an island-reclamation activity led by China.
First of all, I want to make it clear that no matter whether the matter of the reclamation of the Xianbin Reef is true or not, it is a matter of the South China Sea, and it has nothing to do with the Philippines, and the Philippines is not qualified to point fingers.
In response to a reporter's question, a spokesman for the mainland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs also made it clear that the Philippines was spreading rumors.
But this incident also caused me to think, is this Xianbin Reef worth blowing?
According to the map information, Xianbin Reef is an atoll to the southeast of Wufang Reef and east of Ren'ai Reef.
The name Ren'ai Jiao must be familiar to everyone, the Philippine grounded ship, in Ren'ai Jiao, in the recent long period, several conflicts between China and the Philippines have originated from this broken ship, the Chinese coast guard is firmly guarding the bottom line, not a single supply ship loaded with construction materials has been put over.
But I am afraid that few people know that in 2016, a Philippine transport ship ran aground on Wufang Reef, and in order to prevent a recurrence of the Ren'ai Jiao incident, the mainland sent a salvage ship to tow the stranded transport ship out, leaving the Philippines' plan stillborn. Therefore, from the perspective of geographical location, Xianbin Reef, which is located near Ren'ai Reef and Wufang Reef, is still relatively special. According to the maritime survey, a small sandbar is suspected to appear on an island and reef in the southwest of Xianbin Reef, that is to say, Xianbin Reef itself actually has the natural conditions for land reclamation, coupled with China's unique land reclamation technology, Xianbin Reef can become "Mischief Island" at any time like Mischief Reef becomes "Mischief Island".
But the question is that Senbin Reef is too close to the Philippines, and Mischief Reef, not far northwest of Senbin Reef, was reclaimed as early as 2015. More importantly, Xianbin Reef is an atoll, and the freshwater is basically all dependent on external supplies, if it does reclaim land, will it increase the supply pressure of the PLA in the South China Sea?
Judging from the current situation, the impact of the reclamation of Xianbin Reef on the situation in the South China Sea is not great, but not filling it in now does not mean that it will not be filled in the future; after the settlement of the dispute in the South China Sea, the reclamation of Xianbin Reef will be of great value to consolidating sovereignty in the South China Sea, and if it can complement the advantages of the base at Mischief Reef, the two sides will defend the "eastern gate" of the South China Sea in a manner, and can even directly deter US warships and planes in the entire western Pacific. Even if we don't build a military base, we can build a beach and sea view house for us to travel.
But in the final analysis, the Philippines' use of Xianbin Reef shows that Marcos Jr. and the United States behind it are not dead set on doing things in the South China Sea. According to relevant Philippine organizations, the Philippines has amassed a large number of fishing boats with the intention of attacking the disputed islands and reefs and completely disturbing the muddy waters of the South China Sea.
I don't know whether the news is true or not, but it is indeed like the tactics that the United States has always used, inciting confrontation and forcibly creating contradictions and conflicts, which are demonstrations at small scales and color revolutions at large levels.
According to authoritative media sources on the mainland, the mainland coast guard has stepped up patrols in the South China Sea and has achieved regular deployment near Scarborough Shoal, according to the Russian satellite news agency, the number of warships near the disputed islands in the South China Sea is unknown, but the coast guard has at least four coast guard ships and 26 large maritime militia ships.
Once the Philippines takes the initiative to make a big fuss, China will certainly not miss the opportunity to solve all problems at once. You must know that the mainland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs conducted a round of intensive diplomatic interaction with Southeast Asia as early as a month ago, and whether or not it mentioned saying hello on the South China Sea issue is something that the Philippines and the United States can try.