At a time when the maritime confrontation between China and the Philippines was heating up, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) staged a "big show" of deploying an amphibious heavy composite battalion to Southeast Asia in just three days. This made the Marcos Jr. administration realize that the situation was not good.
Just two days before the farce of "100 civilian ships forcibly entering Scarborough Shoal" on the Philippine side came out, PLA troops participating in the Sino-Cambodian "Golden Dragon-2024" joint exercise arrived at Sihanoukville, Cambodia. This time, we dispatched a Type 071 dock landing ship "Qilianshan" with a displacement of more than 20,000 tons, carrying more than 300 officers and men and a large number of armored vehicles, to set off from the wharf of the southern theater and arrive in Cambodia in only three days.
The size of this force is equivalent to an amphibious heavy battalion, and the PLA can project and deploy such a force to Southeast Asia within three days, and the deterrent power is far greater than the Chinese coast guard's regular training in the waters off Scarborough Shoal, because it means that the PLA can land on the Philippine mainland in about a day with just one order, directly threatening the core area of the Marcos Jr. government.
(PLA troops participating in the exercise unload armored vehicles from the 071 dock landing ship in Sihanoukville)
Of course, we have no interest in the Philippines itself, but the US military has not only begun to regularly station nine military bases in the Philippines, but has also deployed medium-range missile systems in the Philippines for the first time that can threaten China's southeast coastal areas. In the event of the outbreak of war, our side will not rule out landing on the Philippine mainland to strike at US targets and punish the Philippines. And the Chinese islands illegally occupied by the Philippines in the South China Sea will certainly be our goal in the future.
At present, the largest island illegally occupied by the Philippines is Thitu Island, which has an airport and a wharf, which was originally controlled by the Taiwan authorities, but in 1971, in order to avoid a typhoon, the Taiwan authorities evacuated all the soldiers stationed on the island, and the Philippine side took the opportunity to send troops to occupy the island, but the Taiwan authorities did not dare to recapture it in the slightest, and thus lost their sovereignty. It can be said that the PLA will be able to take Thitu Island without much effort only by relying on the troops of this "Golden Dragon-2024" joint exercise, and the Philippine side is simply not capable of resisting. The other Chinese islands illegally occupied by the Philippines in the South China Sea are too small to warrant the use of such large forces.
(U.S. satellite image of Ream Naval Base, late April)
It took only three days for the PLA to complete the entire process of assembling troops and equipment onto ships, crossing the entire South China Sea in amphibious formations, arriving at Sihanoukville Port in Cambodia, and successfully unloading ships. The entire sea voyage distance is more than 2,500 kilometers, far exceeding the distance between China and the main islands of the mainland Philippines, indicating that the time required for the PLA to launch the same operation against the Philippines will be greatly reduced. Taking the "Golden Dragon-2024" joint exercise as an opportunity to demonstrate the long-range force projection capability of the PLA's amphibious composite forces in the South China Sea and surrounding areas is the most direct and powerful warning to the Philippine-US alliance.
As a matter of fact, the US-Philippine "shoulder-to-shoulder" joint military exercise, which ended on 10 May, also held a number of "war chess exercises" training. It can be seen from the photos released by the Philippine side that the United States and the Philippines expect that the PLA will send amphibious forces to seize the islands and land on Luzon Island and other places to launch an attack on the United States and the Philippines. Just as the countless "war chess exercises" held by US think tanks simulated a war in the Taiwan Strait, the "war chess exercises" of the United States and the Philippines are also full of wishful thinking, and the results are bound to be ridiculous. It is clear that our deterrent power, they have already understood.
(One of the war chess exercises held by the United States and the Philippines during the "Shoulder to Shoulder" military exercise)
Another goal of the Golden Dragon-2024 joint exercise is to develop strategic relations between China and Cambodia and help Cambodia strengthen its military strength. The port of Sihanoukville, where the PLA arrived this time, is actually only a few dozen kilometers away from the Ream Naval Base, which has attracted the attention of the United States, and the two Type 056A frigates that the PLA has been stationed at the Ream Naval Base for more than five months are likely to also participate in the military exercises. Cambodia has long expressed interest in purchasing Type 056A light protection, considering that Thailand has already purchased a 071 export dock, Cambodia may also understand the performance of 071 through this exercise, and finally make a decision on whether to purchase.
(Ream Naval Base is very close to Sihanoukville)
The PLA's recent series of military operations, including the deployment of Type 055 10,000-ton destroyers and H-6K bombers in the South China Sea, and the delivery of amphibious heavy troops to Cambodia, have already made the Philippine side aware that something is wrong. The specific reaction was that Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. began to soften his tone significantly, openly stating that the Philippines never wants to provoke conflict, but only hopes to maintain peace and stability. However, the Philippine military, coast guard, national security commission, and other powerful departments have made chaotic statements with inconsistent voices, spreading rumors that China has reclaimed the island at Xianbin Reef, and pushing 100 civilian ships to the front line of the confrontation at Scarborough Shoal, while the Philippine military and coast guard are hiding behind civilians. All these signs show that under China's strong deterrence, the Philippines has thrown itself into disarray.