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On the global political stage, an unprecedented situation is gradually emerging, which is full of complex contradictions and uncertainties. In this situation, the United States is facing serious fiscal problems, and concerns about China are growing.
America's fiscal problems stem from the absurd fiscal policies of previous presidents. Today, the United States is mired in a serious fiscal imbalance that all late-stage empires in history have faced. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently discussed balancing fiscal policy and national security at a House hearing. At this meeting, Barr, a member of the Ad Hoc Committee on China's Strategic Competition, raised a striking question: If war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, China will dump more than $800 billion worth of US debt, will the United States respond to it? Yellen's answer was worrying, saying the U.S. was not specifically prepared to deal with such risks. That answer sparked disappointment among lawmakers, who argued that the United States should prepare for a potential U.S.-China war in the Taiwan Strait and a possible massive dump of U.S. Treasuries by China.
The reason why the United States is so worried about China's dumping of U.S. bonds is that China is the second-largest creditor of the United States and the second-largest buyer of U.S. Treasuries, and if China suddenly sells all of its U.S. debt, it will cause the value of U.S. Treasuries to fall sharply, potentially triggering a collapse of the financial system. In addition, the value of the US dollar, as the backbone of the world monetary system, is also supported by the confidence of international capital. China has been the engine of the world economy, and the increase or sale of its financial assets has become a bellwether for the world economy. Therefore, China's dumping of US debt will not only hinder Sino-US cooperation, but also negatively affect the US economic outlook.
Although the U.S. government is working hard with allies, fiscal issues cannot be ignored. With more than $3 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, there is a risk of lightning explosions, and it is difficult to issue bonds with lower interest rates or raise interest rates to attract buyers. Therefore, the United States is now afraid not only of China's selling of US debt, but also of decoupling from China. The dollar's status has changed from being backed by gold and oil in the past to supporting various commodities in the world economic system, a large part of which is related to China. Once China and the United States decouple, the dollar hegemony will face great challenges.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden has made three major gifts to India in an attempt to forge a stronger partnership in this important international player. These gifts cover the political, military and economic spheres. First, Biden expressed support for India to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which is a political gift to India. Second, General Electric of the United States transferred the technology of aero-engine manufacturing technology to India and invested in production lines in India, which is a gift to India's military strength. Finally, Micron plans to build a chip factory in India to pull India into the chip supply chain, which is a gift to the Indian economy.
This series of gifts shows that the United States wants India to become stronger in the political and military spheres so that it can better confront China and Russia in international affairs. However, while the United States is active in political and military cooperation, it appears cautious in economic cooperation. This is because the United States understands that India's ambitions are not entirely in line with the long-term strategy of the United States. India not only wants to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, but also aspires to become a pole of the world on an equal footing with China and the United States. This may not be an ideal scenario for the United States, which has found it impossible to easily control or change China, and it does not want India to become too powerful.
At the same time, Germany is also strengthening economic cooperation with China, but still maintains a certain degree of vigilance. Germany needs to cooperate with China both economically and politically, but it also needs to criticize China politically in order to maintain a balance in its political position. Germany's economy has been in recession for two consecutive quarters, so more external cooperation is needed to stabilize the economy. Moreover, Germany has long been critical of other countries on the moral high ground, so it is also politically necessary to criticize China politically. However, the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair and should not be blamed by other countries.
In general, the current global political situation is full of uncertainty
Sex and variables. China's rise has brought new patterns and challenges to the world. In this pattern, India has become a high-profile country with growing ambitions to be on an equal footing with China and the United States.
A recent article published in the German press raised this point, stating that India wants to become the new world power on an equal footing with China and the United States. India's ambitions are limitless, with multiple advantages that make it possible to become a superpower. First, India has a population of 1.4 billion, which is one of the necessary conditions for becoming a superpower. Secondly, India's vast territory and geographical location offer it great advantages. India is bordered by the ocean to the north and south, and has abundant marine resources, which is of great significance in the era of the marine economy. Moreover, although India claims to be democratic, its government can elect strong leaders, such as Modi, who will stop at nothing to achieve an end. In addition, India possesses nuclear weapons, which makes other countries dare not act rashly and provoke nuclear countries.
However, India's rise also raises a complex set of political and strategic questions. In the trilateral landscape of China, the United States has adopted a stance that both wants to cooperate with India and fears its rise. The United States wants to see India as a strategic tool to suppress China and isolate Russia, but India's rise is not good for the United States in the long run. India is also well aware of this, so during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the United States, it tried its best to avoid touching on sensitive issues and only emphasized US-India cooperation, but there are still many insurmountable differences in cooperation between the two countries.
In addition, China's rise has also made other countries nervous, Germany, as a traditional industrial powerhouse, has always had strong strength in areas such as automobiles and medical equipment, but China's rapid development may become its rival. Especially in the current context of global turmoil, Germany needs to strengthen economic cooperation with China to stabilize its economy, but it has to keep a certain distance politically.
In short, the current international landscape is full of complexities and challenges. Competition and cooperation between the United States, the United States and India will continue to influence global political and economic trends. At this turbulent time, all States need to proceed cautiously in order to balance their own interests with the need for international cooperation in order to ensure a peaceful and stable international order.
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