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Looking back at last year's "exceptionally severe drought," the southern peasants still have unforgettable memories. However, in the spring of 2023, rain is still scarce and farmland is dry up. In the upcoming Qingming Festival, farmers are busy preparing to plant melons and beans, but without rain-moisturized land, they have to work hard to fetch water for water, and they have to endure this trouble in order not to miss the planting season.
The long-unseen spring drought in the south has raised concerns, especially after last year's worst drought. The old farmers in the village said that this year's situation is not optimistic, and they talked about the agricultural proverb "this year is ten oxen to plow the field". What does this mean? Let's explore it together.
This year's second lunar month coincides with a leap year of double spring, and there is a proverb that says: "Ten oxen plow the fields, one dragon cures the water." Based on these ancient traditions, old farmers speculate that this year's drought may be worse than last year's. This inference is based on their interpretation of the Spring Bull Chart.
The Spring Ox Map is an ancient illustrated book used to predict the weather, rainfall, and crop harvest of the year. This ancient method has a history of thousands of years and flourished during the Yuan, Ming, and Qing dynasties. Its main features are a picture of a cow and corresponding verses, as well as a yellow calendar marked with 24 solar terms. In the past, people often posted spring cow pictures at home because it not only guided farming, but also served as a blessing.
This year's spring cattle chart shows that the number of cultivated cattle reached ten, instead of two in previous years. This means that the fields become extremely difficult and require more cattle to help. This phenomenon is related to the lack of rainfall, severe drought, and dry land that is difficult to cultivate.
Last spring, when the spring cattle map marked "five oxen ploughing the field", there was already a drought. This year, the number of cattle has increased to ten, leaving many farmers worried that this year's drought will worsen.
On the other hand, people also judge the amount of rain according to the saying "several dragons control water". This year's spring cow chart reads "One Dragon Governs Water", which means that rain is scarce. According to ancient sayings, "the dragon is more waterlogged, the dragon is less dependent, and the five dragons and six dragons are smooth in the wind and rain", that is, the more dragons, the more likely drought is to occur. Therefore, this year's precipitation forecast seems to be in line with reality. Last year's spring was marked "Eight Dragons Governing Water", so the drought was more serious.
So, is 2023 really prone to a mega-drought? At present, a number of institutions have released the latest forecasts, among which the Yunnan Provincial Water Resources Department predicts that "drought and flood disasters in 2023 will be more severe than last year, and the situation is grim". According to other media reports, the precipitation in southwest China this year is less than the same period of the year, and southern Sichuan and Yunnan are more than 80% less. Coupled with high temperatures, the drought is continuing to spread.
The National Climate Center also released a forecast for the climate year in 2023, pointing out that this year's annual situation is generally biased, and extreme weather and climate events are frequent and strong. In particular, it is worth noting that there may be persistent high temperature weather in summer, and the cycle of average concentrated rainfall in China will be shortened in the future, and the frequency of extreme drought events will increase.
Both the old agricultural proverb and the modern weather forecast indicate that this year's weather conditions are not optimistic. It is hoped that farmers can prepare in advance, pay close attention to weather dynamics, and take effective preventive measures to reduce losses. Because whether it is the traditional spring cow diagram or modern science, they remind us that the power of nature should not be underestimated, and only by being prepared can we get through the difficulties.
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