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The Netherlands, as an important part of the lithography machine industry chain, has the world's largest lithography machine manufacturer ASML, and is also the only giant producing EUV lithography machines. However, the huge influence of the lithography machine industry has also made the Netherlands controlled by the United States. In this case, the Netherlands was forced to reach a tripartite agreement with the United States, Japan and the Netherlands to implement export controls on DUV lithography machines. However, at some point, the Netherlands suddenly announced the lifting of the ban on lithography machines in China, allowing ASML to continue to sell DUV lithography machines to China. Foreign media predict that this restriction may take effect again in 2024.
Behind this incident is the future of the global semiconductor industry. The reason why the United States lists lithography machines as a restriction is because lithography machines play a vital role in chip manufacturing. It accurately projects the pattern of the circuit chip onto the silicon chip, which determines the quality and performance of the chip. Therefore, the United States is trying to fundamentally block China's ability to produce high-end chips by restricting the export of lithography machines.
Japan and the Netherlands are both lithography machine powerhouses, with the world's leading lithography machine manufacturers such as Nikon, Canon and ASML. The U.S. deal with these two countries makes it extremely difficult for anyone to break through this limit. ASML, in particular, monopolizes more than 80% of the global market share, plus Nikon and Canon, almost 95% of the market share of front-end lithography machines. This means that Chinese mainland face a huge challenge under the lithography ban.
However, the unexpected move by the Netherlands changed the situation. The Netherlands lifted the ban on lithography machines, and ASML can continue to sell DUV lithography machines to Chinese mainland. This is good news for both ASML and Chinese mainland customers. ASML can get more orders, and Chinese mainland can meet its chip manufacturing needs. ASML is expected to record sales in 2023 and is expected to grow by more than 30%. If ASML can fully support Chinese mainland customers, Chinese mainland is expected to become the second largest market source for ASML, which will be of great significance to the development of China's semiconductor industry.
However, it is important to note that the license obtained by ASML is limited to 2023, after January 2024, the license will expire, and the possibility of subsequent license acquisition is low. This means that ASML only has a few months to sell more high-end DUV lithography machines to Chinese mainland. After the resumption of supply cuts, China's domestic supply chain needs to cope with new challenges.
In order to reduce its dependence on imported lithography machines, it is necessary for China to strengthen its independent research and development capabilities. This includes increasing investment in domestic lithography machine manufacturers, improving their production capacity and technical level, and increasing the production volume of domestic lithography machines. At the same time, China should also promote the upgrading and transformation of the chip industry and strengthen the research and development and production of high-end chips. In addition, expanding cooperation with other countries to find alternative supply channels is also an important strategy. In addition to the Netherlands and Japan, there are many lithography machine parts suppliers to cooperate with, these suppliers may not be on the side of the United States, so China should actively cooperate with them to ensure the supply of lithography machine parts. If foreign components are not available, Chinese domestic manufacturers also need to improve their level of independent innovation and core technology to achieve self-reliance.
In conclusion, the lifting of the ban on lithography machines in the Netherlands is a positive sign, but China still needs to be prepared for the possible resumption of supply cuts in 2024. By strengthening independent research and development, increasing production capacity, promoting industrial upgrading and cooperating with other countries, China is expected to cope with the uncertainty of the lithography machine supply chain, achieve domestic substitution, and ensure the sustainable development of the semiconductor industry. This issue is not only related to technology and industry, but also to national security and economic development, so comprehensive and in-depth strategic planning and response measures are required.
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