Great inflation is already on the way, and the United States simply cannot hold on

#时事热点头条说#

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Today's Text:

Recently, Lao Zhu vaguely felt a problem from the bits and pieces of news - the big inflation in the United States has hit the road.

The following blue text paragraph, you can choose to glance at it or skip it directly:

According to a Fox Business Channel report on the 1st, among the many weak economic data released by the Labor Department, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index showed that US consumer prices rose 0.2% from the previous month. On an annualized basis, prices rose 3.3 percent, up from 3 percent the previous month, highlighting the challenges facing the U.S. in curbing high inflation. Core prices (excluding volatile food and energy) rose 0.2 percent from the previous month and 4.2 percent from a year earlier.

At this point, if I say that I don't believe in the statistics of the "government departments" in the United States, you must think that it is my personal problem, in fact, I believe in the American private sector more than the American government departments.

The following data is still from Fox Business Channel, but not from the US government department, but from the US banking industry and independent business research agencies:

Fact 1: The percentage of Americans using credit cards is increasing.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S. consumer credit card debt has reached an all-time high of $1.03 trillion as of the second quarter of 2023.

Some people have several credit cards, back and forth, to maintain a normal life, the annual interest rate of US credit cards has exceeded 20%, not to mention the possible unemployment, that is, not unemployed, how long can this life of tearing down the east wall to make up for the west wall last?

Data 2: Mortgage rates over 7%

There is something to mortgage, which means that there are also assets, and in the context of economic recession, it is even more difficult for individuals and businesses to make more than 7% of profits.

What kind of people would choose to mortgage? Credit cards can no longer be swiped, and those who need a lot of money to turnover, and once these people can't pay back, it means that the bank's bad debt rate will soar, and the bank's bad debt rate soars, which means greater financial risk.

Data 3: Since 2022, excess savings in the U.S. have declined by an average of $100 billion per month.

Excess savings, a technical term, are mainly concentrated in middle- and upper-income people with stable incomes.

What does it mean that excess savings are reduced by $100 billion a month?

For example, a certain Silicon Valley elite, who originally had a high salary of $200,000 a month, suddenly one day, unemployed, so, not only the monthly income of 200,000 yuan is gone, but also the monthly mortgage car loan has to be taken out of the deposit tens of thousands, so that this person's "excess savings" are less than 200,000.

According to the San Francisco Fed, just over two years ago, Americans had a record $2.1 trillion in excess savings, and now, only $190 billion remains.

At first, Lao Zhu thought that the data was wrong and there was a 0 less, but in a flash, he thought that it was reduced by 100 billion a month, and it fell for 23 consecutive months, which is not right.

The San Francisco Fed estimates that remaining household savings will run out this quarter.

Inflation, mortgage rates of more than 7% and interest rates of more than 20% per annum on credit cards are pushing all income brackets into a situation where they can't make ends meet. These are the exact words from Fox Business Channel's September 2 program.

Data 4: The proportion of RMB cross-border payments soared

According to data from the SWIFT system, the share of the renminbi in international payments in July this year was 3.06%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, according to the Russian satellite news agency sputniknews on August 31. Compared with the indicator two years ago, the share of the renminbi has risen by 1 percentage point.

If you only look at this, you will feel that the internationalization of the renminbi is not good.

And the previous data:

According to statistics from People's Bank of China, in the first half of 2023, the total amount of RMB cross-border payments increased by 20% over the same period last year, reaching 24.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 57% of all settlements, and the proportion of RMB in commodity trade jumped from 6.7% to 23% during the reporting period.

At this point, the question is, why is there such a big gap between the data of our own statistics and the data of the SWIFT system?

The answer is that SWIFT statistics are far from covering all international payment transactions. Some transactions made through the RMB Cross-Border Payment System (CIPS) are not counted.

At this moment, are you a little confused by these messy data?

There is no hurry, Lao Zhu mixed these data together and pinched a line, and you can understand:

During the epidemic, the United States frantically printed money, constantly sending money to the people, everyone not only had money in their pockets, but also had money to consume, so that it was easy for enterprises to make money, so "excess savings" hit a record high.

The tide receded and the swimming trunks began to expose.

The wealth in society has not increased, and if you print money wildly, it will definitely lead to inflation, so the Fed began to raise interest rates, and it has increased interest rates more than a dozen times in less than two years.

The crazy printing of money by the United States made the countries and individuals holding the dollar in their hands see, Nima, pit Laozi, so everyone began to replace the dollar with the yuan, the euro and the "currency swap" between countries.

Everyone did not use dollars, and the interest rate in the United States was high, so the money began to flow back to the United States.

If capital flows back into the dollar, if it enters the industry, then it is a good thing for the United States, but the problem is that the money returned does not want to invest in the industry at all, as long as it lies on the bank's account and eats interest.

Interest rates have risen, economic recession, no one has taken out loans, there is more and more money in the bank, the bank is not engaged in charity, the interest rate on deposits is high, and Lao Tzu has also raised when he lends abroad.

With wages not rising much, interest rates on credit cards and mortgages rising all the time, more money pouring in, and rising inflation, it is only a matter of time before individuals and businesses go bankrupt.

Yesterday, Lao Zhu brushed that a Chinese man in the United States complained that seven or eight years ago he ate bowls of noodles in a Chinese restaurant for seven or eight yuan, but now it has risen to 26.

Although it is to earn dollars and spend dollars, the problem is that the average income of three or five thousand can not withstand the price of a bowl of noodles 26!

When you take advantage of the dollar's high interest rate of 5%, you often ignore that a bowl of noodles has quietly risen by 200%.

Interest rates on the dollar are still high, people's savings are plummeting, and prices are soaring, so I say I suspect that there is something wrong with the statistics of the US government, do you still think that I am allergic?

"What ordinary people are not allowed to do is not to share with you; What you are called to do is for you to fill the pit", this law is universal.

The big inflation in the United States has been on the road, the financial crisis may break out at any time, these days, every time I see those people who run out on the Internet show their happy life in the United States, Lao Zhu can't help but want to say: Deser, there is a day when you cry!

Beer, drinks, mineral water, peanuts, melon seeds, ham sausages...