Text/Wang Xinxi
After the release of Huawei Mate60 series, it triggered extensive discussions between domestic and external networks, from the current situation of netizens posting new machines, sales are also very hot, third-party research institute Nafoss chief analyst Li Huaibin expects that Huawei Mate 60 series sales can exceed 6 million units. This may influence the export decision of lithography machines in the Netherlands.
Today is the fourth day of Huawei's Mate 60 on sale, and it is also the day that the Netherlands previously announced the implementation of semiconductor export controls officially took effect (September 1), but ASML's latest response is that it has submitted an application for an export license for the lithography system to the Dutch government.
According to the Global Times, ASML, a Dutch lithography machine manufacturer, confirmed to China Daily that ASML has submitted an export license application for TWINSCAN NXT:2000i and subsequent immersion lithography systems to the Dutch government.
"The Dutch government has also issued the licenses we need until September 1 to allow ASML to continue shipping the TWINSCAN NXT:2000i and subsequent immersion lithography systems this year." ASML said that under the new export control regulations, it will still be able to fulfill the contract with customers to ship these lithography equipment by the end of this year.
That is to say, the Netherlands has been licensed, and by the end of the year, lithography machines can still be exported to China.
Obviously, after Huawei mate60 came out, it was a signal for the Netherlands. At present, Huawei mate60 is basically a nationally produced mobile phone, using a double-stacked Kirin 9000s chip, and it is a pure domestic CPU and 5G. Kirin 9000S It is a completely new design chip, which is completely different from the Kirin 9000. And the small core is the Cortex-A510, a new architecture launched in mid-2021, a 5nm manufacturing process.
From the perspective of network speed measurement, it is completely 5G speed, and it is said that its communication supports 5.5G.
In addition, Jianghuai Motors recently released the Huawei 9610 chip, which uses a 7nm process, with twice the computing power of Qualcomm 8155, with powerful computing power and artificial intelligence functions.
How did all this come about? At present, there are many speculations, because the confidentiality work is too good, all walks of life are still speculating, after all, the chip industry involves too much high technology, from machinery to optics to materials to chemistry, global collaboration is the best choice, but Huawei has come up with an independent 5G chip with 5nm process technology under the all-round blockade, which means that it has completed the breakthrough from 0 to 1.
The lithography agency is coming to a halt, and there are signs of relaxation of Dutch export controls?
This may leave both the United States and the Netherlands a little scratching their heads, and from ASML's current claims, Dutch export controls are showing signs of relaxation.
Earlier, during negotiations with China, Raimondo strongly urged China to prevent Huawei from developing semiconductor technology, otherwise it will take tougher semiconductor sanctions. However, Huawei directly released the new Kirin 9000S chip, which sent a message to the arrogant Americans: chip sanctions may have expired.
This in fact just confirms a view of Zhang Zhaozhong three years ago, as early as 2020, Zhang Zhaozhong once said: If the United States sanctions China for three years, there will be no need to export it in the future, cover it at home, no one wants it, no one wants 5nm, because China is full of streets, believe it or not.
Now, the facts prove Zhang Zhaozhong's prediction.
At present, domestic chip imports are getting less and less, self-sufficiency rate is getting higher and higher, due to the global market chip demand, the Chinese market accounts for half of the country, China's self-sufficiency rate is increasing, foreign semiconductor demand is declining, lithography mechanism tide may be coming. At present, after TSMC, South Korea's chip factories have also shut down EVU lithography machines.
In particular, Huawei's Kirin 9000s has achieved a 5nm process process, which is a very obvious signal, which means that foreign chips will be in a more serious surplus state in the future, which is why the three major semiconductor giants in the United States lobbied Biden to abandon sanctions some time ago, or because they saw the stupidity of the US sanctions policy.
As some netizens pointed out, why should the United States sanction China's semiconductors, the United States has been producing chips, isn't it good that China has been buying chips (for the United States)? If the Chinese chip industry emerges, the price of American chips will be lowered a little, and the Chinese chip industry will be directly crushed, and then the unit price will be returned through iteration, and so on, the Chinese chip industry will never get up.
In fact, the three major semiconductor giants in the United States have also seen that American politicians cut off the supply of Chinese chips, and in the case of large-scale shrinking profits, over time, the problem will become serious. The best way to disrupt the development of China's chip industry is dumping, not sanctions.
Earlier, the New York Times also revealed a deep concern in a report, the New York Times said:
"These controls cannot contain China once and for all. Even at their best, they are a delaying tactic designed to give the United States and its allies room to expand their leadership in key technologies. The question is how much time BIS can buy for the West. ”
The New York Times believes that if the United States cannot win, it must fight, and there is no way back. The mentality of the United States has changed from wanting to win to being afraid of losing.
So in this case, the export control of Dutch lithography machines seems to be showing signs of relaxation. Because from the current point of view, the specific progress of the country makes the outside world a little confused, but it is obvious that a lot of results have been achieved. The reversal moment is also coming, and the foresight of the domestic chip industry is actually far beyond our imagination.
In the past, from home and abroad, more than one person asked who could digest these chips if they were not sold to China, and the pace of China's independent substitution is also steadily advancing.
The next generation of gallium nitride chips, China's curve overtaking may be realized in advance?
Why is it afraid of losing, because behind Huawei mate60, is the product of China's resistance to US sanctions, in the past, the country has been worried about the progress of lithography machines and chips, in the past a consensus is that the mainland's chips stay at 14nm ~ 28nm, domestic lithography machines even stay at 90nm, did not expect Huawei to take out 5nm, which means that the chip breaks through the neck of the card, the progress of China's chip industry chain and even the progress of the lithography machine, faster than expected, to go far.
Since the progress in China has been kept secret, it may be that the real situation is beyond our imagination, and in a few years, there may be a possibility of overtaking in a corner. After all, with the cultivation of China's chip industry chain, market technology and chip raw materials are all in China.
From the perspective of raw materials, the manufacture of chips is inseparable from gallium and germanium. After the release of China's gallium and germanium export control policy, the EU tried to find gallium and germanium items to supply minerals in China, and found a harsh reality: more than half of Europe's local alumina refineries have been closed.
In response to the release of Huawei mate60, Taiwan Province current affairs commentator Jie Wenji pointed out a few days ago that Huawei mate60 Pro is another great shock to the United States and the world's major manufacturers, this shock will make China overtake in the chip manufacturing curve or even realize it in advance. Because the second generation of chips, that is, the next generation of chips is gallium nitride, but gallium nitride that gallium and germanium, gallium, China masters 90%.
"So if the second generation of gallium nitride chips comes out in the future, the whole raw material is in China's hands, so in this case, the market technology is in China, the raw materials are in China, you ask what space are there for these factories in the United States?" So who forced this out? It's the United States. ”
Therefore, the results brought about by the US sanctions precisely confirm the saying that the more sanctions are restricted, the more fruitful they are, and what the United States restricts, what can China do? This is constantly proven by history. Of course, from the current situation, Huawei is still in the breakthrough from 0 to 1, from 1 to N, it will take time to grow and progress, Huawei's success is not only China's achievement, but also serves the world's technology industry and global consumers.
But in the current situation, the situation is stronger than people, and past historical experience tells us that once China makes a breakthrough in a certain technical field, foreign brands will begin to increase shipments, and even limit the R&D investment and product competitiveness of domestic brands through market price reduction and dumping.
At the current domestic breakthrough node, the possibility of foreign future unbanning of chips and lithography machines and dumping exists. The Chinese market is an open market, and if foreign countries lift the ban and open it to us, we may still not refuse.
After all, China has never been afraid of competition, of course it will open its market to free competition, and of course, we cannot underestimate the sense of crisis that our companies have cultivated in today's market environment. The domestic chip industry chain has finally gradually stepped from chaos to the right track, and industrial chain enterprises and R & D personnel will not give up the opportunity to independently win the commanding heights of technology.
The general trend of the times is difficult to change artificially, and the next 3~5 years may be the time for us to witness history.
Author: Wang Xinxi TMT Senior Reviewer This article is not reprinted without permission