Article author: North Wind Snow Forest
Yesterday, the capital markets staged another "spectacle", but this time unexpectedly, I think it is precisely the sign that everything "has settled".
Yesterday afternoon, after the opening of Hong Kong stocks, Alibaba, which was listed on both U.S. stocks and Hong Kong stocks, suddenly jumped more than 5% in the Hong Kong stock market.
The reason for everyone's shock is that Ali Group, or the Internet industry, did not have "major positive" news yesterday.
In the past few months, whether it is Jack Ma's return to China or Ali's senior management change, the capital market has not had such a jump.
The only explanation is that someone "received Ali's upcoming favorable announcement" and entered the game early.
So everyone is waiting tonight to see what "shocking benefits" Alibaba will advertise.
As a result, Ali's official announcement did not wait, but waited for the financial regulatory authorities to impose fines on Ant Group, plus confiscation of illegal gains, a total of 7.123 billion yuan.
After two years, the huge fine for the "platform economy leader" has actually reappeared, isn't this the negative news of "destroying the world and destroying the earth"?
How can it still bring about a 5% jump in Hong Kong stocks?
What surprised many people was that the financial regulator's punishment for Ant Group was officially announced at 8 p.m., and the opening time of the US stock market and the domestic market had a time difference of nearly 12 disappears, so the US stock Alibaba opened immediately after tonight's "official announcement of 7.123 billion penalties".
If Hong Kong stocks rose 5% before they received fines from financial regulators, then U.S. stocks opened after the announcement of large fines, and they must "fall first", right?
As a result, the US stock Alibaba was even more crazy, actually jumping 6% at the open, which shows that the US capital market is more optimistic about Ali, who is "after being punished by a large amount".
Many people can't understand Hong Kong stocks and US stocks Alibaba, and the trend is completely opposite to the bad news of large fines in China.
That's because they can't understand that in the eyes of Hong Kong stock investors and stockless investors, the penalty of 7.123 billion yuan on Ant Group this time is indeed "good news".
Why?
Because the penalty announcement of our national financial department is very clear, this punishment is a correction and rectification of many illegal acts of Ant Group since the strict supervision of finance in November 2020, so this time it is a comprehensive punishment for Ant Group's mistakes made in the past few years.
It is not only to give the "coffin conclusion" of the strict investigation and supervision of Ant Group for more than two years, but also the end of rectification and correction in the past two years, and Ant Group can "start again".
For Alibaba Group, for Jack Ma, for Hong Kong stock investors and US stock investors, since November 2020, the sword of Damocles hanging over Alibaba's head has not been cut down, and the "boots do not land" after the final rectification is the biggest risk and uncertainty of the platform economy such as Alibaba.
Yesterday's penalty of 7.123 billion yuan on Ant Group, in terms of amount, is second only to the punishment of more than 18 billion yuan on Ali in 2021, but this time, as the end of "forced rectification", at least indicates that Ali's reorganization, spin-off and listing, can be lightly loaded and pushed forward.
After the financial institution officially announced a penalty of 7.123 billion yuan on Ant Group this time, some netizens did not see the signal clearly and "cheered the start of a new round of platform enterprises to crack down" in the comment area.
And some people say on the Internet that they spend money, and the days they borrow are equivalent to "borrowing usury", hoping that Alipay will be "strictly investigated".
But in fact, yesterday the regulator said that "in the past two years, the outstanding problems reflected in the platform economy have been rectified".
In this punishment, the only project banned by Ant Group is "mutual treasure", and the state requires Ant Group to stop the "mutual treasure" business and compensate investment customers for the loss of profits while punishing it.
Therefore, in the Alipay business, only "mutual treasure" is affected. Only consumers who have invested money in each other in the past few years can claim compensation.
Alipay's Huabei and borrowing are in normal operation, indicating that no matter how much the handling fee of Huabei installment is, and how much the interest on borrowing is after it is cost-effective, they are in this round of regulatory rectification, in a compliant state, and continue to operate.
So those netizens who complain about Huabei and borrowing are going to be disappointed.
Another signal yesterday was that the "Tenpay" company, which belongs to WeChat Pay, was also issued a fine, confiscating illegal gains and fines, accumulating nearly 3 billion yuan.
For the punishment of "Tenpay", many netizens are even more confused, they believe that "WeChat Pay increased service fees for efficiency some time ago", which triggered heavy fines from regulators.
These two have no causal relationship at all, or there is a "backward causal relationship".
The punishment of Tenpay this time, judging from the official notice, is very different from the problem of Ant Group.
Ant Group has illegally operated projects such as "bancassurance wealth management" that exceed risks, and its own ambitions and financial risks are too great.
The punishment of Fortune Connect is because "WeChat Pay" is too convenient, too low threshold, too lack of supervision, resulting in illegal money laundering, tax evasion and other tools overseas, so Tenpay is "reduced to a convenient tool for criminals to evade supervision" and is fined, and Ant Group's financial empire dream of "replacing bank insurance and financial management" are two concepts.
The punishment of the regulator this time is precisely to block the payment function of Tenpay, and it will continue to become a "gray production tool" to obtain profits in the future because of the low threshold, loose supervision and high convenience.
The "partial door" is blocked, which will lead to the payment company's pursuit of excess profits in "universities and other scenarios".
So I say that there is a "backward causal relationship" between the two.
Although Ant Group and Fortune Connect were punished for completely different reasons, the punishment announcement was issued at intervals of one hour on the same day yesterday, which also made the signal of "the rectification of the platform economy end and start again" stronger.
Historical problems have been rectified, and today's platform economy operates under "normalized supervision", and for everyone, "the risk of heavy penalties is increased", and the certainty of the future is improved.
July every year is an important moment for the state to set the tone and exert its strength for the economy in the second half of the year. Yesterday, the State Council convened an economic symposium with eight economic experts.
Judging from the public positions of these eight experts in the past, they also hope to give the platform economy the opportunity to develop in compliance and let the platform economy play a greater role in this round of economic recovery!
Affected by the epidemic in the second quarter of last year, the economic base was low, so the "comparative economic data" in the second quarter will be better, but the overall manufacturing and employment situation has not fundamentally improved.
In the second half of the year, and even the whole year of next year, it is necessary to gather every part of the society and concentrate on fighting the economy.
At this time, the momentum of the platform economy in driving consumption and solving employment must be stimulated, and there can be no more internal consumption.
Yesterday's punishment of Ant and Tenpay was a collective clearance of negative problems in two and a half years of strict regulatory rectification, so it is no wonder that Hong Kong stocks and US stocks have bucked the trend.
Global investors' optimism about the mainland platform economy is also optimistic about our more solid economic recovery in the second half of the year!