It is expected that Thailand's sugarcane output will be reduced by 10 percent this year, with a total of less than 80 million tons, and the food crisis has boosted the export of Thai rice by 8 million tons
Thailand's rice and sugar production will be severely affected by the increase in global temperatures due to the El Niño phenomenon. The increase in grain reserves is expected to boost Thai rice exports to 8 million tonnes, continuing to lock in the world's second-largest rice exporter, but for the sugar industry, this year could be the worst drought in eight years, with preliminary estimates of a 7-10% reduction in total production of up to 80 million tonnes.
The World Meteorological Organization issued an early warning and reminded countries to prepare for a strong El Niño event in the second half of this year, which could lead to more frequent, widespread and intensified extreme weather. Since June, the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East Pacific Ocean has risen significantly. This is considered to be the one who entered El Niño early.
In the next five years, from 2023 to 2027, at least one year will break the high temperature record set in 2016. Although El Niño affects different parts of the world differently, in many cases El Niño brings heavy rain or drought to many countries in Asia.
The Director of the Office of the Thai Cane Farmers Federation is working with the cane farmers, the sugar chief and the sugar department to discuss a tripartite response plan. At present, preliminary estimates are that this year's sugarcane production will be reduced by at least 10% to about 80 million tons. For cane farmers, switching to cassava, another hardy cash crop, would be a good option.
Panuwa, secretary general of Thailand's sugar management committee, said local authorities have been ordered to increase publicity to enable farmers to properly deal with the effects of El Niño, for example, the climate problem will reduce yields and reduce cultivated areas, ultimately leading to a reduction in sugar cane harvests.
The Thai Institute of Industry recommended the establishment of a water resources coordination group composed of the government and private enterprises to effectively address the impact and impact of El Niño on countries around the world. The sugar mill is also actively looking for other channels of assistance for cane farmers.
The total output of sugarcane in the 2022 crushing season was about 94 million tons, an increase of 1.97% year-on-year. But this year's decline could be as high as 7%-10%, leaving only 80 million tons of total production.
But it has a pulling effect on Taimy's exports this year, as countries are increasing food imports to prevent a food security crisis caused by a domestic drought. As the world's second largest rice exporter, Thailand is expected to export no less than 8 million tonnes of rice by the end of this year.
In June 2023, Thailand successfully exported about 700,000 tons of rice, with major importers including ASEAN countries, the Middle East and Africa. From January 1 to the end of May this year, Thailand exported a total of 3,467,368 tons of rice, worth 64.322 billion baht, of which the total export volume increased by 26.5% and the export value increased by 34.6%.
However, Thai research institutions predict that due to the impact of El Niño, the comprehensive loss of Thailand's agricultural economy may exceed 60 billion baht. Governments need to develop effective responses as soon as possible.