April 27, 2023 | Issue 3218
In the five-and-a-half-day schedule, 17 new films were released in a pile, and the May 1st file that opened tomorrow formed a fierce market scene.
With a large number of new films, will the high-profile "King of the Long Sky" succeed in winning the championship? Romance films, comedy films, disaster movies gather, which film can become a box office dark horse? Will the country's hot holiday tourism market have a negative impact on the movie market?
In recent years, the film distribution business of Maoyan and Taobao Ticket has risen, and behind the box office sales of popular films, the distribution teams of these two companies are always indispensable. What are the advantages of ticketing platforms in the field of film distribution?
With these questions, the film and television monologue invited film critic Tübingen Carpenter, producer Fujii Shu, and market expert Liancheng Yi Crisp to chat online about May 1st together. The guests made a detailed and unique analysis of the film's prospects, market output, and platform advantages.
01: The pre-sale box office of "King of the Long Sky" has exceeded 96 million yuan, far ahead of the same films. Has it already locked in the slotment champion in advance? Can the final box office of the film exceed 1 billion yuan?
Tübingen Carpenter: I am personally not optimistic about this year's May 1st file, there are fewer popular movies in the schedule, and only the pre-sale of "The King of the Long Sky" is relatively high.
"King of the Long Sky" is an Air Force movie, and military fans will pay great attention to this movie. If there are some errors in military details in the film, there will be negative public opinion. Therefore, if the film's word-of-mouth response is not good, not only will its box office not explode, but the market market will also be pulled down.
Fujii Shu: Wang Yibo's previous work "Nameless" has a good artistic texture and good reputation. This is a positive incentive for his fans. They are sure that their favorite idols are suitable for filmmaking, and they are willing to pay for their idols' works. This resulted in the outstanding pre-sale of "King of the Long Sky".
"King of the Long Sky" is an Air Force movie. Its investment scale, shooting difficulty, technical threshold, and cast, all aspects of advantages are very obvious in this year's May 1st file. However, I am also cautious about whether the film can reach 1 billion yuan.
"Slam Dunk" was released on April 20, and the film did not fully release box office energy before the festival. The film's selling influence will continue until the May Day period, which brings certain variables to the market pattern.
Liancheng is brittle: "King of the Long Sky" is likely to be the box office champion of May 1st. However, the chances of the film eventually rushing to the box office of 1 billion yuan are not great.
"Nameless" was released in the Spring Festival and eventually failed to reach 1 billion. The large market volume of the May 1st file is limited, and the box office of "King of the Long Sky" should not exceed "Nameless".
As the two teachers said, the reputation of "King of the Long Sky" and the play of "Slam Dunk" are indeed unknown factors, which also leads to the uncertain box office results of the film.
02: Maoyan and Taoqiao each have film distribution teams. What are the advantages of Maotao over traditional film distribution companies? Will the box office of the films released by Maotao be significantly improved?
Tübingen Carpenter: The rise of Taoqiao and Maoyan issuance is essentially the rise of the Internet platform economy. After a certain format in the market is penetrated by Internet commerce, it will form an oligopolistic platform economy, such as takeaway platforms are mainly Ele.me and Meituan.
The same goes for ticketing platforms, with Maoyan and Taobao dominating the ticketing space. Therefore, these two companies are the most direct to reach users.
When the user opens the Maoyan or Taobao ticket APP, it will select the top video on the homepage. Then, after a film is released in cooperation with Maotao, this film should be focused on recommended resources.
Fujii: Wanda and Huayi both have distribution companies or teams, but the movies they release must also be put on the Maoyan and Taobao Ticket APP for ticket sales, and the platform terminal advantage of MaoTao is unmatched by other distribution companies.
Therefore, the distribution of new films should consider cooperation with Maoyan or Taobao. However, the cooperation between the film and Maotao is only a blessing in the distribution link, which is the icing on the cake. If the film is bad, it is difficult for any platform to change the fate of the bad film.
CityLink is brittle: Traditional film distribution companies do not have platform support, they only have the relevant data of their own films. However, Maotao has sufficient data on movies released in the mobile Internet era, and this difference is clear at a glance.
MaoTao has a large amount of user portrait data, and the two platforms can clearly see the market segmentation content behind the movie. Viewing preferences of viewers in each region, percentage of male and female audiences, etc. With these data to participate in the distribution of the film, they can achieve accurate publicity, and the effect is naturally obvious.
03: In the May 1st file, which film has the appearance of a dark horse at the box office?
Tübingen Carpenter: Couples are the mainstream consumer group of cinema audiences, so the romance films in the schedule are more likely to stand out. "King of the Long Sky" is a military theme, and it has obvious genre differences from romance films. Young female audiences may be easily attracted to romance films, and once a well-known romance film appears in the schedule, it will become a box office dark horse.
Fujii: That's right, I'm optimistic about "So Many Years". Every year, there will be one or two romance film dark horses, and even if the reputation of romance films is not good, such as "Your Wedding" and "Sad Stories Than Sadness", it does not prevent the film from selling. Romance films are just in demand in the market.
Zhang Xincheng and Sun Qian in "So Many Years" I like it very much. The film is adapted from August Chang'an's novel of the same name. The film has an IP foundation and has an excellent market appearance.
City Link is brittle: 17 new films in the May 1st file, at least 10 of which will have a Douban score below 7 points. Assuming a work with a score of 7.5 appears, it will become a dark horse.
I am personally optimistic about "Changsha Nightlife", produced by Chen Kexin and directed by Zhang Ji, and the "Winning the Championship" that the two previously collaborated on was written by Zhang Ji. The cast and sales of the film are good.
04: There are as many as 17 new films released on May 1st, why should they squeeze into this schedule?
Tübingen Carpenter: First of all, the film market is still recovering after the pandemic. "Prosecutor Storm" and "Shocking Rescue" were previously scheduled, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the release was postponed, and the market is digesting these accumulated films.
Secondly, it is normal for movies to be crowded in important schedules, and the big schedule before the epidemic was so lively. Film production capacity is recovering, and congestion will increase in future schedules.
Fujii: There are 17 new films on the schedule, but several films are released like a formality, and they will not make a splash in the market. In the May 1st file, there are 5~6 films with a heavier level, and they are willing to get together because they see the advantages of the schedule.
The big schedule is a very important box office booster. A new film will release greater energy in a strong schedule. On the contrary, if the new film chooses to be released in the off-season of the market, the road to the box office will be more tiring. For example, the box office revenue of "Keep You Safe" is 680 million yuan. If it is placed in the May 1st file, with the emotional resonance generated by the film, it should be an order of 1 billion yuan.
Therefore, the film side will favor such a stable schedule as May 1st. There are enough moviegoers in the schedule, and the released films will eventually gain something.
Liancheng is brittle: Only "The King of the Long Sky" is a relatively large film in May 1st this year. Head films are scarce, and small and medium-sized films dare to get together in this schedule, and who is cannon fodder at that time is not certain. If there are "Super Family" and "Fast and Furious 10" in the May 1st file, then many films will definitely have to be changed.
Although the May 1st file is crowded, small and medium-sized films will think that the competition in the summer file and the National Day file will be fiercer, so it is better to launch it as early as the May 1st file.
05: In 2021, the box office revenue of May 1st was 1.673 billion yuan, and last year, the same file was only reported to 297 million yuan due to the impact of the epidemic. Can this year's May 1st gear exceed the results of 2021?
Fujii: I default that "Slam Dunk" is also a new film on May 1st, and this film will produce a high box office in the middle of the schedule. If it plays well, the total box office of this year's May 1st file will not be bad.
City brittle: The five-day holiday, calculated according to the volume of 1.6 billion, needs to produce more than 300 million box office every day. According to this calculation, the box office of this year's May 1st file should be similar to that of 2021.
If movies such as "The King of the Long Sky", "Slam Dunk" and "Life Road Unfamiliar" play well, the box office may rush to 1.7 billion yuan. If the box office is poor, it may fall at the level of 1.5 billion yuan.
Tübingen Carpenter: I think it will be difficult to surpass the results of May 1st in 2021. Movie consumption is not just needed, consumers will not necessarily go to the movies because of the holiday.
Outdoor consumption is now very popular, and people may have been holding back a lot in the past three years. Everyone is now keen to travel and go out to see the famous mountains and rivers.
I also hope that "King of the Long Sky" will soar into the sky. However, the film's current pre-sale box office should be fan-driven, can it continue this boom momentum after that? This is a question mark.
06: The tourism market of May 1st is hot, will it affect the ticket sales? After May 1st, when people return from travel, will there be a new increase in the box office of the scheduled movies?
Tübingen Carpenter: I don't think tourism has a direct impact on the box office, which only shows that there are more entertainment options for the masses. Whether the movie sells well depends on the quality of the film itself.
After May 1st, the market popularity will normally decline, and there will be more new films released, and the audience's choice of new films will enter the next stage.
Fujii: I think the hot travel market will definitely affect the box office of movies. During the winter holiday and Spring Festival in January this year, everyone is recuperating at home, so there are not too many people traveling. The box office of the Spring Festival file is a big hit because many people go back to their hometown for the New Year, and they will ask friends to watch movies at home.
The May Day holiday is different, when spring is in full bloom, and the tourism market will cause customer diversion to the film market. After the May Day holiday, people are usually very busy at work. Therefore, it is difficult for scheduled films to generate new growth points after the festival.
Liancheng Yi Crisp: I looked at the data, during the May Day holiday in 2021, the number of domestic tourists reached 230 million. In the same year, the May Day of the film market, the number of moviegoers was 44.26 million. From this point of view, the number of moviegoers is relatively small. Therefore, the impact of tourism on the box office of movies will not be particularly large.
After the end of the May 1st program, the imported film "Guardians of the Galaxy 3" will be released, and the audience's attention will turn to the new film. Films that are not very competitive in the May 1st show will soon be eliminated by the market.
07: Before the box office of "Suzu Bud Journey" broke 700 million, and then "Slam Dunk" set off a box office boom, why are Japanese animated films performing so strongly this year? Will Japanese animated films have a stronger appeal in the mainland market in the future?
Tübingen Carpenter: The popularity of one or two films does not indicate the rise of a certain genre. For example, the "Wandering Earth" series is a big seller, which does not mean that domestic sci-fi films are comprehensive.
The mainland film market will introduce a number of Japanese animated films every year, such as "Doraemon" and "Detective Conan", but their box office is mostly in the range of 2~300 million yuan. Therefore, the Japanese manga market after "Lingbud Journey" and "Slam Dunk" is not too optimistic. If Japanese animation lacks fan support and classic feelings, the market appeal will not be so strong.
At the same time, the popularity of our domestic animation is increasing. In recent years, the box office results of "Nezha: The Devil Child Descends" and "Jiang Ziya" are good. Companies such as Chasing Light Animation and Color Stripe House are launching new works one after another, and the future market of Japanese animation is not necessarily better.
Fujii: The sales of these two Japanese animated films coincided with each other. Both films were released in Japan last year, and the reputation of the film was released early in China. Overseas audiences gave good reviews to the two films, which produced a positive stimulus for domestic audiences.
City Link is brittle: The continuous sales of the two works of "Bell Bud Journey" and "Slam Dunk", there are some accidental factors here. First of all, they happened to be released in the same year, thus forming a box office pattern of two heroes standing side by side. Secondly, both films were imported Chinese mainland by Road Painting Company, and were released before and after, avoiding head-to-head confrontation.
Such success is not replicable at the creative level. Makoto Shinkai, the director of "Suzubud Journey", is a slow worker, and "Slam Dunk" has not said that it will make a sequel, and there may not be Japanese animation of the same magnitude in the market for a long time. However, "Suzu Bud Journey" raised the ceiling of Japanese animated films at the box office in the mainland and is of great significance.
08: "Black Panther 2" and "Ant-Man 3" before Marvel movies were cold at the mainland box office, can "Guardians of the Galaxy 3" released on May 5 set off a movie-watching boom?
Tübingen Carpenter: Marvel is a little aesthetic fatigued, and "Black Panther 2" is already not a big attraction. "Guardians of the Galaxy 3" is not expected to be particularly popular in the mainland market, Marvel iron fans may like it, passers-by and audiences are difficult to have a strong sense of substitution for the story of the film.
Hollywood movies attract audiences with their visual effects spectacle, but the more they watch such movies, the audience will be immune. Therefore, it is difficult for Hollywood movies to form a crushing box office like "Avatar" in the past, but the domestic films "Manjiang Hong" and "The Wandering Earth 2" that can make the audience empathize with the box office rushed to the order of 4 billion yuan.
Fujii: Most Hollywood movies are sequels to super IPs, and the audience is a little tired of watching them now. The box office of "Guardians of the Galaxy 3" will definitely be better than "Black Panther 2" and "Ant-Man 3", but its market volume will not be too large. The real Hollywood hit this year was Fast and Furious 10.
Liancheng is brittle: The mainland box office of "Ant-Man 3" is not good, and I think "Silver Guard 3" also has market risks. The box office of the first two films of "Silver Guard" is not particularly high in the mainland, and I will cautiously expect its market performance in the third part.
【Text/Cui Ting】