Do you know how long you can live?
74 years ago, the answer to this question might have been 35.
At that time, our ancestors needed to face famine, smallpox, polio... These now sound somewhat distant "enemies".
In 1949, the average life expectancy on the mainland was only 35 years[1].
With the rapid social and economic development of the mainland, the "health cause" of the people has also taken off.
In 2019, that answer became 77.7 years old [2].
Will Chinese live longer?
(Source: Internet)
The answer is, yes!
Not long ago, researchers from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published a modeling study of Chinese average life expectancy in The Lancet, predicting the life expectancy of the population of Chinese mainland and its provinces in 2035 [3].
In the foreseeable future, Chinese is about to kick the door of "80" years old and move towards the goal of a longer life!
(Source: Soogif)
Life expectancy refers to the average number of years a person born during the same period is expected to survive, assuming that the current mortality rate by age group remains unchanged. In fact, mortality is constantly changing, so life expectancy can change from year to year.
It sounds complicated, but in simple terms, life expectancy (generally life expectancy at birth) refers to how old the average baby is for a newborn baby to live that year.
For example, in 2019 Chinese average life expectancy was 77.7 years, which means that people born in 2019 can live to an average of 77.7 years.
Every year of increase in life expectancy has a positive meaning!
Improved sanitation, economic income, living standards and awareness of environmental protection will increase the life expectancy of people born in different eras and years.
The study found that life expectancy at birth will further increase in mainland China:
2019 – 77.7 years old
2030 - 79 years old
2035 – 81.3 years old!
By 2035, the probability of life expectancy in the mainland exceeding 80 years is as high as 93%, of which the life expectancy of women is 85.1 years and that of men is 78.1 years.
(Source: Soogif)
1. Life expectancy of mainland women
From the perspective of different regions, in 2035, women in Beijing are expected to become the group with the highest life expectancy, followed by women in Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu.
In 2035, the probability that women in Beijing will have a birth life expectancy of more than 90 years is 81%. Women in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Shanghai are 78%, 62% and 54% more likely to be over 90, respectively.
The complete ranking of female life expectancy in mainland China is detailed in the figure below ⬇️
2. Life expectancy of mainland men
The first place in male life expectancy "flowers" in Shanghai.
In 2035, the probability of male life expectancy in Shanghai exceeding 80 years is 98% and the probability of exceeding 83 years is 77%.
Men in Beijing, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Fujian are also "not to be outdone." In all these areas, the probability of male life expectancy exceeding 80 years is more than 50%.
The complete ranking of male life expectancy in mainland China is detailed in the figure below ⬇️
3. These regions "leap forward"
According to the projections of life expectancy from 2019 to 2035, the provinces with the largest increase in female life expectancy are Guangdong, Beijing, Zhejiang and Fujian, where the probability of female life expectancy increasing by more than 5 years is at least 53%.
For men, the provinces with the largest increases in life expectancy were Tibet, Fujian, Guangdong and Jilin, where at least 53 percent were likely to increase by more than 4 years.
It is worth noting that mainland women will live longer than men, and it is expected to increase further.
In 2019, the life expectancy of mainland women was 6.2 years higher than that of men, and this gender gap will increase to 7 years by 2035.
According to 2019 data, Guangxi, Liaoning, Guangdong and Beijing regions have the largest gap in average life expectancy between men and women (7.7, 7.4, 7.3 and 7.1 years, respectively), while Jilin has the smallest gender gap (only 2.7 years).
The gap in average life expectancy between men and women is expected to widen in most parts of the mainland (except Tibet, Jilin and Guizhou) by 2035.
(Source: Soogif)
The study pointed out that in most provinces, the increase in life expectancy is mainly due to the increase in the life expectancy of people over 65 years old, especially women.
This also shows that the mainland has made great progress in improving its health.
In addition to the decrease in neonatal mortality, the increase in life expectancy is also associated with the decline in mortality from various chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and tumors.
Then, to change the idea, if we want to live long, we must try not to suffer from these chronic diseases, and in case of these diseases, do a good job in disease management!
So, how to do a good job in disease prevention and management?
Statistics from the World Health Organization show that 60% of chronic diseases are associated with unhealthy lifestyles [4].
What is a "healthy lifestyle"? We have also sorted out the 4 most important points of "healthy lifestyle" for you -
"Can eat, move, sleep, have fun"
Although it may seem a bit cliché, it is important to every modern person!
1. Will eat, quit smoking and alcohol
The Chinese Nutrition Society has clearly pointed out in the research report that the problems of unbalanced diet, high oil and salt, overweight and obesity of mainland residents are very prominent, which are the main risk factors for the occurrence of chronic diseases [5].
Eating a sensible diet and eating too much or too little is not good for health and longevity.
The Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents clearly state these points [6]:
2. Will move
Everyone knows that exercise is good for health, but very few people can actually do it and stick to it.
Studies have shown that consuming 150 kcal per day, or 1000 kcal per week, can reduce the risk of coronary heart disease by 50%, and the risk of hypertension, diabetes, and cancer by 30%~35% [7].
Danish scientists collected the amateur sports of 8,577 volunteers and followed them for 25 consecutive years, publishing the results in 2018. It was found that different types of exercise significantly increased life expectancy compared with sedentary control groups without exercise hobbies [8]. The top 7 major sports and their life extension are as follows:
(1) Tennis: 9.7 years
(2) Badminton: 6.2 years
(3) Soccer: 4.7 years
(4) Cycling: 3.7 years
(5) Swimming: 3.4 years
(6) Jogging: 3.2 years
(7) Calisthenics: 3.1 years
3. Will sleep
It has long been known that longevity is inextricably linked to sleep.
Studies have found that people who sleep less than 6 hours or more than 8 hours a day have a higher mortality and risk of cardiovascular disease than people who sleep 6~8 hours [9].
A word of caution: the more sleep you get, the better! It is most suitable to sleep 7~8 hours a day.
4. Club
The importance of mental health to health is self-evident.
A 2019 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences followed more than 70,000 volunteers for up to 30 years and found that:
In the most optimistic group of volunteers, men lived 11% longer on average and women 15% longer;
The most optimistic group of volunteers, who were 70 percent more likely to live past 85, increased by 70 percent for men and 50 percent for women.
Finally, I would like to say that in the foreseeable future, our lifespan will become longer and longer.
And just as important as the "length" of life is the quality of life.
Therefore, for us personally, the pursuit of "longevity" should actually be the pursuit of "health + happiness".
Live happily every day, and longevity will naturally accumulate in every step of the way.
Review expert: Li Qian
Deputy Chief Physician of the Department of Epidemiology and Endemic Disease Control, Chaoyang District CDC, Beijing
bibliography
1. https://www.unicef.cn/figure-112-life-expectancy-birth-19812015
2.http://www.nhc.gov.cn/guihuaxxs/s10748/202006/ebfe31f24cc145b198dd730603ec4442.shtml
3. Bai, Ruhai, et al. "Projections of future life expectancy in China up to 2035: a modelling study." The Lancet Public Health (2023).
4. Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China. The Information Office of the State Council held a press conference on the "Report on the Status of Nutrition and Chronic Diseases of Chinese Residents (2020)".2020.12.http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2020-12/24/content_5572983.htm
5. Chinese Nutrition Society. Scientific Research Report on Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (2021)
https://www.cnsoc.org/latesachie/files/@CmsXh_54778f33-4c95-4a5e-81d8-19a007838d63.pdf
6. Chinese Nutrition Society. Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (2022 Edition)
7. CDReimers, GKnapp, AKReimers. Does physical activity increase life expectancy? A review of the literature. J Aging Res. 2012;2012:243958.doi: 10.1155/2012/243958.
8. Peter Schnohr, James O'Keefe, et al. Various Leisure-Time Physical Activities Associated With Widely Divergent Life Expectancies: The Copenhagen City Heart Study. Mayo Clin Proc. 2018 Dec;93(12):1775-1785.doi: 10.1016/j.mayocp.2018.06.025.
9. Chuangshi Wang, Shrikant Bangdiwala, et al. Association of estimated sleep duration and naps with mortality and cardiovascular events: a study of 116 632 people from 21 countries. Eur Heart J. 2019 May 21;40(20):1620-1629.doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehy695.
10. Lewina Lee, Peter James, et al. Optimism is associated with exceptional longevity in 2 epidemiologic cohorts of men and women. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Sep 10;116(37):18357-18362.doi: 10.1073/pnas.1900712116.
*Produced by Tencent Medical Codex Content Team