Thirteen years after Jian'an, Cao Cao marched south to Jingzhou. Before he arrived, Liu Biao fell ill and died. He was succeeded by his son Liu Chun. In September of the same year, Cao Cao's army marched to Xiangyang, and Liu Chun raised the state to surrender. At this point, Cao Cao did not spend a single soldier and pawn, and he obtained the place where soldiers had to fight since ancient times, Jingzhou.
Jingzhou fell so easily that people had to wonder whether Liu Shi, who covered an area of thousands of miles and had a hundred thousand armor, really fulfilled the nursery rhyme rumor in the Book of Search for God. According to the "Book of Searching Gods", in the early years of Jian'an, there was such a nursery rhyme circulating in Jingzhou. "In the past eight or nine years, it has begun to decline, and there will be no widows in thirteen years", which refers to the Liu Biao family.
But is the decline of the Liu Biao family really doomed, the answer is no, although there is no rumor, but Liu's surrender to Cao Cao actually has a definite number.
The foundation is not deep, and there is no death plan under his command
In the first year of Chuping, Liu Biao served as the Assassin of Jingzhou. According to Sima Biao's "Strategy", Liu Biaochu was Jingzhou, Jiangnan Zong was entrenched, Yuan Shu was a hidden danger in Luyang, Su Dai led Changsha Taishou, Bei Yu was Hua Rongchang, and each led the army to rebel, so the three forces, and Liu Biao entered Yicheng and was isolated and helpless. Later, with the help of local scholars, Qu Liang, Ku Yue, and Cai Mao, he gradually obtained the Land of Jingzhou. It can be said that it is self-made.
Although such a self-made start is admirable, it actually buries a lot of hidden dangers. One of the biggest hidden dangers is that Liu Biao's foundation is still shallow, and he lacks subordinates who are happy to die for him.
From the time he ascended the throne in 190 AD, liu died in 208 AD. In this short period of 18 years, Liu Biao, with the help of his advisers, easily seized the lands of Jingzhou and collected hundreds of thousands of troops. According to the "Romance of the Three Kingdoms", it is thousands of miles in the place, with more than 100,000 armor.
But such an achievement could not make his advisers loyal to him to the death. When Cao Cao and Yuan Shao were holding on to Guandu, his advisers Han Song and Liu Xian said such a passage.
"Cao Cao and Yuan Shao are fighting, and the focus of the world lies in your choice, general." If you want to make a difference, it is time to take advantage of the evils of his battle; otherwise, you should choose a good Lord to submit to him. The general has a crowd of 100,000 people, sits and watches, sees the wise and cannot help, please and does not give a clear word, so that the two forces will inevitably resent you, and the general cannot choose neutrality. Cao Cao is enlightened and wise, and all the wise men and gentlemen in the world are subordinate to Cao, and his power will inevitably surpass Yuan Shao, and then Cao Cao will turn his spearhead to you, and I am afraid that the general will not be able to resist it when he arrives. Now I will dedicate myself to the general, and it is better to surrender to Cao Cao, who will inevitably be more virtuous than the general, enjoy this blessing for a long time, and pass it on to future generations.
This paragraph expresses a total of three meanings.
1 We cannot watch the fire from across the shore;
2 Fight or fall;
3 It is recommended to descend, and to descend Cao Cao.
Among them, the first two meanings are expressed more clearly, while the expression of the third layer of meanings is more obscure. The reason why we say that the surrender is recommended is because in the expression of this passage, in the aspect of "war", only this way out is mentioned, and no specific strategy is mentioned; on the question of "surrender", even the object of surrender has long been thought out. The meaning is self-evident.
It is true that such a plan may not be a feasible plan, surrender is to get the peace of Taishan, but for Liu Biao, the lord of one side, covering an area of thousands of miles, with more than 100,000 armor, completely possessing the hegemonic side, and even having the opportunity to seize the world; bending down and surrendering is not so much a fool's errand as a stupid and cowardly move.
At this point, a question may be renewed. Why did Liu Biao's advisers persuade Him to surrender to Cao Cao and come to Cao Cao's men, and what good would it do them?
In the chaotic world, judging the Lord can be said to be an indispensable skill for every good strategist. Liu Biao's subordinates Ku Yue and Han Song were no exception, they knew that although Liu Biao was not thin, he was by no means an overlord, and Jingzhou, the place where successive generations of soldiers had to fight, was too conspicuous in the world to be safe for a long time, so choosing a good lord again became one of the most important things for them at the moment, and Cao Cao was the good lord.
Cao Cao's criterion for selecting talents at that time was "meritocracy", so Zhang Xiu's initial surrender and rebellion, rebellion and then surrender, can still get Cao Cao's preferential treatment; after Wei's rebellion against Cao Cao and cao' surrender, Cao Cao still entrusted him with heavy responsibilities, giving him the reason that "only his talent". Compared with Yuan Shao's self-sufficiency, Cao Cao was really the best choice at that time.
The power is strong, giving talent a place to play, so that the strategist of the table returns to Cao like an arrow. After Liu Chun surrendered, they were also able to meet their satisfaction. Fifteen marquises such as Ku Yue were Guanglu Xun; Han Song was DaHongxu; Liu Xian was Shang Shuling; and the rest were mostly high officials.
With so many strategists under Liu Biao, it can be said that they are good strategists, but they are by no means dead soldiers. Most of their plans and suggestions are centered on themselves, and the reason for this is nothing more than the four words that the foundation is not deep. In just eighteen years, compared with Yuan Shao's fourth and third dukes, Cao Cao's twenty-year career in horse fighting was indeed not long, experienced a shortage, and could not effectively cultivate the strategists who were willing to die for themselves. Although Yuan Shao was arrogant, He still vowed not to surrender after his defeat; although Cao Cao was weak, Xun Yu would also defend The City of Yi alone after Lü Bu rebelled against Yanzhou and defended Cao Cao's family business. Compared with Liu Biao's strategist, it can only be more than that.
All in all, one of the important reasons for Liu's surrender to Cao was the lack of loyal strategists under his hands. Subsequently, behind Liu Chun's choice to surrender was obedience to the words of Qu Yue, Fu Xun and others.
However, the fall of a group, only attributed to the disadvantages of the people under his hands, also seems unreasonable, the master's achievements are sometimes much more useful than the words of his subordinate advisers, and Liu Biao's calculation is the master of the work, and what should be the strategy adopted after he took the throne, please continue to look down.
Strategic mistakes, dilemmas and failures
Liu Formed entered Jingzhou by gun and horse, and the appointees personnel and ministers seized the land of Jingzhou, which must be a hero. And just after he had just captured the huge Jingzhou, the strategic strategy for the outside world was set to curry favor with both sides and wait for change.
According to the Chronicle of the Three Kingdoms, after Cao Cao welcomed Tianzi to the capital Xu Du, Liu Biao sent envoys to the imperial court to pay tribute to Yuan Shao, and this practice can be directly dismissed as "eating inside and outside". Neither allied with Cao Cao nor allied with Yuan Shao, indicating that both sides were pleased, but in fact both sides resented him, in the words of Han Song, "seeing the sage and not helping, please make peace but not, these two grievances will be concentrated in the general."
As a result, its strategy is wrong with this.
Second, since Liu Biao took charge of Jingzhou, he has always adopted a strategic policy that cannot be adhered to. As Cao Cao said, "Liu Biao, the thief who guards himself."
Cao Cao and Yuan Shao held each other at Guandu, and they adopted a neutral and wait-and-see attitude, delusionally trying to compete with the sandpipers and clams, and the fishermen gained.
Cao Cao, Yuan Shao may be said to be a sandpiper, and Liu Biao can never be regarded as a fisherman.
Thirteen years after Jian'an, just after Cao Cao had just pacified the north, he raised an army to cut it. In the following month, Liu Chun raised the state to fall, and liu biao's group declined.
The mistake of Liu Biao's strategy directly led to the end of sitting still. The final situation of losing ground is also due to the mistake of its strategic approach.
For the rest of his life, Liu Biao relied on the luck of the times and the help of the wise men to obtain Jingzhou, which was not easy. It is a pity that opportunities can be encountered but not sought, but their descendants are unable to cherish them, and it is a pity that they are given to others in vain. The reason for this is that, first, there is no death plan for his subordinates, and second, the mistakes of the strategic policy have made Yu everywhere subject to internal and external restraints and finally lose his family business.
At the end of the final event, although Liu Biao's own reasons are significant, the analysis in this article is mainly objective, and there is no mention of Liu Biao's subjective factors, and behind these two objective factors, it is mainly caused by his subjective factors, or it can be said that the objective factors produced under the subjective influence of Liu Biao have caused its decline. If Liu Biao himself knew people well, had great ambitions, and attacked at the right time, his outcome would be diametrically opposite and unknown. In short, the fall of Jingzhou is actually fixed in the background that has existed before, and the decline of the Liu Biao family also clarifies the important position occupied by the scholar class in the era at that time, and the talented people have won the world, which may be verified in this counterexample.