Author| Xiao Sanjun
The total pre-sale box office of Spring Festival movies has exceeded 300 million, which is really exciting news for the entire film industry. For the first Spring Festival stall after the end of the epidemic, cinemas have been looking forward to it for too long. At present, the Spring Festival file has been scheduled for seven films, both live-action films and animated films, and the genre includes science fiction, suspense, comedy and other types, from this point of view, this year's Spring Festival file has no genre cluster, showing a diversified and healthy distribution.
But diversity means more choice, and the uncertainty of each film's total box office increases. After all, there are very few people who watch all the films in the Spring Festival file, and the vast majority of audiences can only choose one or a few films to watch according to interest, so the competition for this Spring Festival file will be extremely fierce.
Pre-sale box office list
The battle of the movie schedule, the first rearrangement of the film. For many low-frequency moviegoers, the Spring Festival is the only time of the year when they enter the cinema. Only by striving for the arrangement of films as much as possible can we better attract these audiences and increase the overall box office of the film. In this year's Spring Festival file, "The Wandering Earth 2" is more optimistic about the theater because of the success of the previous film at the box office, and it also has a strong attraction to the audience. And "Manjiang Red" and "Nameless" are very positive about the first day of filming because of the participation of traffic stars. This year's Spring Festival competition for the first day of scheduling is mainly concentrated in the middle of these three films.
The top three films are fiercely competitive, and the later films are not to be outdone, "Exchange Life" as a comedy, "Deep Sea" as an animated film also has its own selling points, and "Chinese Table Tennis Jedi Strikes Back" is a retreat and announced that it will be postponed from the first day of the Lunar New Year to the third day of the Lunar New Year. Whether the box office of this year's Spring Festival file can regain its previous glory or even set a new record depends on the quality of these seven works.
Double factors, start the Spring Festival film war
The arrangement of films is directly related to the revenue of the theater line, and as the Spring Festival file with the largest proportion of the box office in the year, the problem of its arrangement is naturally the top priority. A good scheduling strategy can bring more revenue to cinemas, while poor scheduling may lead to a sharp decline in revenue, affecting cinemas' revenue throughout the year. But the problem is that it is not easy to arrange films for this year's Spring Festival.
The first is the length factor.
According to the data, among the films released on the first day of the first year, the duration of "The Wandering Earth 2" is 173 minutes, the duration of "Manjiang Hong" is 159 minutes, the duration of "Nameless" is 128 minutes, the duration of "Exchange Life" is 110 minutes, the duration of "Deep Sea" is 112 minutes, and the duration of "Bear Haunted" is 96 minutes.
According to a well-known studio manager: "The Spring Festival has the most people, the number of performances needed must be maximized, and if a film is too long, it will consider reducing its schedule." It is scheduled for two days, other films only need one and a half days, if the attendance is equal, then the shorter films must be prioritized. ”
Among the movies that need to be considered in the arrangement, "Bear Haunted" is the easiest, because its audience is very fixed, according to the logic of the previous arrangement. The difficulty lies in "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Manjiang Red", both of which exceed 2 and a half hours in duration, and "The Wandering Earth 2" is even close to 3 hours. If only from the perspective of time, such a long film will lead to a decrease in the turnover rate of the cinema, and the proportion of films should be reduced.
But the paradox is that these longer films are the head films of this year. "Manjiang Hong" is Zhang Yimou's work to fight the Spring Festival file, the director himself has a strong box office appeal in the middle-aged and elderly group, the cast is luxurious, in addition to traffic stars, there are Shen Teng, Zhang Yi, Lei Jiayin and others, which have a strong attraction to the audience, so they are optimistic about many studio managers.
"The Wandering Earth 2" has high hopes from sci-fi fans, considering the box office scale of 4.886 billion yuan in the previous film, its IP appeal and popularity are very high, and it is also optimistic about the managers of the studios, and even gave the highest ranking on the first day. The trade-offs in between really take some thought.
The second is the impact caused by the fans of traffic stars rushing to arrange the film.
In order to ensure the proportion of films scheduled on the first day of the film, fans will buy a large number of tickets in the pre-sale stage and create popularity through chartering and other forms to achieve the purpose of increasing the arrangement of films. In the view of the studio manager, the ticket purchase behavior of fans will drive a certain amount of popularity, but relying on fans alone is obviously not enough. "The ticket buying behavior of fans will indeed win more than expected schedules for the movie, but it will not increase the number of screenings, and we will consider the popularity of passers-by's ticket purchase."
There is also an interesting phenomenon in the pre-sale process, that is, "Nameless", which initially had the highest proportion of the total box office in the pre-sale, did not have a high proportion of films on the first day. Its arrangement is not only lower than "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Manjiang Red", but even lower than "Exchange of Life", you must know that the former's pre-sale box office is more than twice as much as the latter.
For this unusual phenomenon, a studio manager in the southwest region answered: "The competition for the head film this year is very fierce, so more emphasis is placed on attendance, and we dare not put the treasure on the fans of a movie, the studio depends on the final attendance, not a moment." Compared with the previous time when the fan economy was strong, the current arrangement of films is much more cautious, and the influence of fans on the arrangement of films is limited. The scale of the final arrangement depends on the type, starring actor, and director, and the landing point is still the quality of word of mouth. ”
"Nameless"'s first-day pre-sale box office advantage did not last. According to the data of Maoyan Professional Edition, on the afternoon of January 17, the first-day pre-sale box office ranking of "Nameless" was successively surpassed by "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2" and became the third place. Such a change was expected by some studio managers, according to a well-known studio manager in Beijing: ""Manjiang Hong" was originally a popular film in the eyes of theater managers, and it is reasonable to have more rows. And "Nameless" because the box office of its director Cheng Er's previous work is not high, and the theater manager is not optimistic about its first-day box office. As for "The Wandering Earth 2", it should be the best film for passers-by, and the attendance should not worry, like our studio, the big hall gives priority to it. ”
The release has its own tricks, and the dark horse still has a probability of killing
"The first day is life and death", these are the words that many people in the industry hang on their lips. Then in order to compete for the first day of film as much as possible, it is necessary to create enough heat in the early stage.
"The Wandering Earth 2" has the longest front, and it was officially announced at the Golden Rooster Film Festival on November 27, 2020, and there has been no major movement since then. Until the release of the "Little White Dot" version of the trailer in August last year, attracting the attention of netizens, three trailers were released in December to warm up, on the basis of the IP popularity of the movie itself, aroused the interest of netizens from multiple angles.
On January 1, 2023, the topic #Reunion of the Wandering Earth Across 4 Years# was launched on Weibo and Douyin, and accompanied by a short video of "Encounter" to awaken the memories of netizens. On the day before the pre-sale opened on January 13, the "departure" trailer further strengthened the cognition of netizens, focusing on the big scene and shock, highlighting its hardcore sci-fi background, this warm-up According to the data of Maoyan and Lighthouse, nearly 50,000 people wanted to see it on that day. On the day of the opening of the pre-sale, the theme song sung by Zhou Shen was released, which boosted the pre-sale volume of the movie.
"Manjiang Hong" seized this advantage in publicity because of the participation of traffic stars to increase popularity. On the day of the finalization, in addition to the release of the first trailer, the topics on Douyin and Weibo were mainly based on the cast, of which nearly half were related to Yi Yangqianxi, showing a relationship that was obviously closely bound to traffic, and Maoyan added more than 65,000 people who wanted to watch.
But in the subsequent marketing actions, "Manjiang Hong" was not limited to Yi Yangqianxi, but gradually showed its lineup. For example, on December 31, in the Douyin marketing topic #Shen Teng waited for 30 years to cooperate with Zhang Yimou#, on January 9, Zhang Yi's character trailer and related hot search were launched, and Lei Jiayin's character trailer and related hot search were launched on January 10 to attract more audiences. The day before the pre-sale began, "Manjiang Hong" shifted the focus of publicity back to traffic stars. Among the more than 30 hot search topics that day, more than half involved Yi Yangqianxi. The trailer of the "Suspense Tube Enough" version released on the day of the opening of the pre-sale strengthened the suspense of the film in the minds of netizens.
"Nameless" also has the participation of traffic stars. Since the official announcement on January 1, 2023, Wang Yibo's fans have made great efforts to promote "Nameless". As early as the pre-sale of "King of the Long Sky", Wang Yibo's fans showed great ability, and the pre-sale of "Nameless", through fan chartering and other means, made the total box office of "Nameless" in the initial pre-sale stage ranked first until it was surpassed by "Manjiang Red". When the full lineup was officially announced on January 7, the focus of the announcement was on styling, makeup and eye killing, and the Maoyan Professional Edition and Lighthouse Professional Edition were newly added to more than 20,000 people on the same day.
The day before the pre-sale opened on January 13, "Nameless" chose a similar publicity strategy to "Manjiang Red". Among the 13 hot searches on Weibo and Douyin, 9 involved Wang Yibo, with the Maoyan Professional version adding nearly 40,000 people on the same day, while the Lighthouse Professional version added more than 46,000 people on the same day. It can be said that the popularity of "Nameless" is closely related to the fans of traffic stars, which also makes "Nameless" have a strong Wang Yibo color in publicity.
Comedy has always been regarded as a rigid need for the Spring Festival, and comedies are scarce this year. "Exchange of Life" released the first trailer before it was finalized, using the comedy color of Zhang Xiaofei and Lei Jiayin to emphasize the characteristics of the film. Since then, until the pre-sale opened, the focus of the publicity was on the two leading actors, making articles around the plot, spitting and other aspects, focusing on the concept of "laughing at the New Year".
Welcome New Year Creative by Entertainment Capital AI Drawing
As a comedy, "Exchange Life" has a fit for the festive atmosphere, and if the follow-up can be fermented in word of mouth, it should be able to make a big breakthrough at the box office. And its proportion of films on the first day is higher than that of "Nameless", which has a certain first-hand advantage, which fully shows that many theater managers are optimistic about the film. More importantly, "Exchange Life" is shorter in length, and more performances can be scheduled in the same time, as long as the reputation is okay, there is great potential to be tapped.
"Deep Sea" is scheduled for January 3, as an animation that entered the Spring Festival file, the tone at the beginning was visual effects, and then fermented around this point, such as on January 7 on Weibo and Douyin both launched the topic of #Movie Deep Sea 1 shot has 2 billion particles#, and the behind-the-scenes documentary was first exposed on January 8. Before the pre-sale opened, it focused on warmth and healing strategies, and impressed users with topics such as #Being stunned by the furry sea otter of the deep sea#, #Deep sea dubbing scene infectious #, #Movie Deep Sea Sincere Laughter and Healing# and other topics on Douyin.
On the day of the pre-sale, "Deep Sea" released a linkage with "The Return of the Great Sage", both films are the works directed by Tian Xiaopeng, using the significance of "The Return of the Great Sage" as a landmark work of national comics to strengthen netizens' cognition of "Deep Sea". If "Deep Sea" itself is of excellent quality, there is still a lot of room for reverie at the box office of the Spring Festival file. The film side of "Deep Sea" is obviously aware of this, and has announced that it will open 100 IMAX screenings nationwide on January 19, hoping to use the screening to drive word of mouth, like "The Return of the Great Saint" to achieve a counterattack, improve the arrangement and box office.
"Chinese Table Tennis Jedi Strikes Back" announced on January 6 that it was scheduled for the first day of the Chinese New Year, but its want to see index has always ranked low. For this reason, until January 16, the official announcement of "Chinese Table Tennis" was postponed, and when all the films were piled up in the first year of junior high school, the third year of junior high school was chosen. This is a dangerous move, the third year of junior high for the Spring Festival file, the opening of the movie reputation has all come out, the basic layout of the film has been decided, "Chinese Table Tennis" wants to make a late attack, then it must rely on excellent quality to highlight the encirclement. However, this move also saves the scheduling fee on the first day of the Spring Festival file, and the money can be used for follow-up publicity. In terms of publicity channels, "Chinese Table Tennis" seems to emphasize Douyin more, laying out a large number of short films of Deng Chao, Sun Li, deep love and children's happiness, which resonated with many ordinary users.
The winner of the Spring Festival stall has never looked at the results of the first day, but the subsequent word-of-mouth fermentation, the so-called "fat first is not fat, then fat overwhelms the kang". In the past, the box office champion on the first day of the Spring Festival file did not laugh much, like the 2021 Spring Festival file leading is "Detective Chinatown 3", and then overtaken by "Hello, Li Huanying", and the 2019 Spring Festival file is "Crazy Alien", and then overtaken by "The Wandering Earth".
The level of the first day of film arrangement can only indicate the market forecast before the opening of the painting, and once officially released, only the word of mouth of the film is determined by the proportion of the film, and the quality of the film is still the key to breaking the game. Iron also needs to be hard, if you want to become a dark horse in the schedule, you must first have excellent quality. According to the experience of the previous Spring Festival file, the third day of junior high school will be the day when the dark horse kills, and whether the films with the lowest proportion of films can enter the top three depends on the word-of-mouth fermentation in the early stage. Who killed the deer is unknown.
In addition to expectations, there are still hidden worries
The Spring Festival file is about the movie, but it is not entirely about the movie, and this year's Spring Festival file, in addition to the quality of the movie itself, still has some hidden worries.
One of the most direct and realistic hidden worries is whether the fading viewing habit can be restored. The three years from 2020 to 2022 are three years of gradual decline in the number of moviegoers, and also three years of the rapid rise of short videos, a large number of viewers are diverted, and a large number of viewers are accustomed to the days of not going to the cinema. When the Spring Festival stall reopens its arms to the audience, how much can this part of the audience come back?
The second concern is the high ticket price. Although you can buy movie tickets at the right price in the pre-sale stage, the Spring Festival file is a special schedule, and many people's viewing conditions are often on-site tickets, and excessive ticket prices will dissuade many audiences. The high ticket price of the 2022 Spring Festival stall has aroused a lot of opinions from the audience, and a ticket is often hundreds of yuan, or even 150 yuan a piece, resulting in a reduction of 46 million moviegoers in the entire schedule compared with 2021.
So will the ticket price of this year's Spring Festival stall be reduced? I'm afraid it's not easy.
In the past three years, both the studio and the theater line have been greatly impacted and urgently need to be recovered. For the film side, the pressure to return to the capital is not low, especially for films with a high level of industrialization like "The Wandering Earth 2". According to past experience, high ticket prices will definitely reduce the audience's viewing frequency, and the original plan to watch two films may become one, which is obviously unfavorable to the overall box office of the Spring Festival file.
Another concern that cannot be ignored is the residual effects of Omicron. Although the major first-tier cities have basically passed the peak, the "Yangkang" group has no pressure to enter the cinema, but for many places, there are still many people who have not "Yang". Moreover, the resistance of the elderly and children is relatively weak, and many families will choose to cancel their viewing plans out of concern about their health. This caused the Spring Festival stall to focus on family fun, and as a result, the audience did not come directly to the family.
If these three hidden worries are not solved, there are still many difficulties for the Spring Festival file to return to its previous glory or even set a new record. It is true that the audience is willing to pay for good works, but the premise is that it is worth it, in any case, this Spring Festival file needs some high-quality, high-reputation works to reawaken the audience's enthusiasm for watching movies. I am looking forward to achieving good results in this Spring Festival, but from the perspective of the industry, we should remain cautiously optimistic, after all, today is different. All the results need to be left for the first day of the new year to be tested.