The Spring Festival in 2023 is an important node for the revitalization of China's film industry. The positive development of the three-year "black swan" event, coupled with the public's optimistic expectations for the economic situation in the new year, has allowed various industries to reinvigorate confidence in the market. Among them, the film industry is a significant microcosm.
Judging from the number of "contested" films in the 2023 Spring Festival file, it has been confirmed that seven movies have entered the Spring Festival file so far: "The Wandering Earth 2", "Exchange Life", "Nameless", "Manjiang Red", "Deep Sea", "Chinese Table Tennis Jedi Strikes Back" and "Bear Haunted, Bear Infested "Bear Core".
Although there is still a gap with the "strongest New Year file" of 15 movies such as "The Wandering Earth", "The New King of Comedy" and "Crazy Alien" in 2019, there is still the possibility of competition.
Overall, the 2023 Spring Festival file is significantly favorable - diversified genres, many high-investment productions, a strong return behind the scenes of the gold medal, a generally luxurious cast, and the overall appearance is worth looking forward to. Coupled with the strong vision of the whole people eager to celebrate the Spring Festival in a new life, it is not difficult to predict that this year's Spring Festival box office will usher in a big surprise.
From the perspective of the audience, fans also have good expectations for this year's Spring Festival, and many people have long entered the prediction market of the top three at the box office. Compared with the Spring Festival file in previous years, there is often a single big box office leader, this year's Spring Festival movie who will win is actually not easy to predict, the theme difference is obvious, each film has a big cast seated, several have a hit photo, we may wish to do an industry analysis of this year's box office ranking from several dimensions.
The data of each platform "want to see" is released
"The Wandering Earth 2", "Exchange Life" and "Manjiang Red" won big
Who can be among the top three box office movies in 2023? Let's first take a holistic look at the data distribution of major film professional platforms and social platforms.
First of all, from the "want to see" data of Taobao Tickets, "The Wandering Earth 2", which focuses on sci-fi and disaster themes, ranks first with favorable factors such as the label advantage of "big IP", the stickiness of the story sequel, the blessing of money-burning special effects, and the attractiveness of the IMAX version, and the number of "want to see" people on a single platform is as high as 947,000.
The next three are "Nameless", which focuses on plot and historical themes, 677,000; Zhang Yimou's suspense drama "Manjiang Hong", 335,000; and the only family comedy "Exchange Life" in the Spring Festival file, 274,000.
Similar to the ranking of Taotao Tickets, the top four lists given by Maoyan Professional Edition's third-party media advanced predictions are "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Manjiang Hong", the third place has changed from "Nameless" to the national comic film "Deep Sea", and the fourth place is still "Exchange Life" that fits the joyful atmosphere of the whole people.
Obviously, the distribution of themes in this year's Spring Festival file is more diverse, each with its own audience, but comedy is undoubtedly "missing treasure", if the whole family acts together and takes care of the aesthetics of three generations at the same time, then the funny and not tired "Exchange Life" and "Buy Not Loss" "The Wandering Earth 2" must be good choices.
Looking at the data analysis given by Lighthouse Professional Edition, the first place in the proportion of users who click on the poster is "Exchange Life", both the cast and the warm atmosphere full of joy, which gives the audience a reason to "fall in love at first sight".
There is also Douyin, a short video giant that can represent the aesthetics of the public, and the relevant playback ranking of each film in the Spring Festival file can also explain a lot of problems. The top three broadcasts are "The Wandering Earth 2" with 1.2 billion, "Exchange Life" with 1 billion, and "Manjiang Hong" with 800 million.
At the same time, the ranking of new views on Douyin topics also represents the sprint power of the film, ranking first #电影中国乒乓 with 212 million new views, followed by #SwapLife, #电影满江红, and #流量地球.
On the major lists, the audience's expectations for the Spring Festival films are also different. For example, on the Weibo popularity list, "Nameless" ranked first with a popularity score of 99.26; the second place was occupied by "Manjiang Hong" with a popularity score of 86.68; It was followed by "Exchange of Life", with a popularity score of 80.88 points, higher than the fourth place "The Wandering Earth 2" with 1.74 points.
The next three films of the national comic "Deep Sea", the first Chinese table tennis-themed film "Chinese Table Tennis Jedi Strikes Back", the evergreen animation IP "Bear Haunted, Accompany Me "Bear Core"" Weibo popularity score and the first echelon appeared a large cliff, of course, this does not mean that their box office "Waterloo", after all, the probability of dark horses appearing in the past Spring Festival file is very high, for example, the first part of "The Wandering Earth" once created a counterattack myth.
The hot search topics of "Nameless" and "Manjiang Hong" are mainly based on the cast, the former #Movie Nameless has Huang Lei Zhang Jingyi #, and the latter's #Yi Yangqianxi played Sun Jun is a little ruthless# have boosted the popularity of the movie.
There are also movies known for their reputation and expectations, such as the hot search topic of "Exchange Life" is #Lei Jiayin, Zhang Xiaofei Zhang Youhao's first trailer#, #Finally waiting for Zhang Xiaofei's new movie#, #Jia Ling's detective class Zhang Xiaofei's laughter tears#. In addition to the quality of the film itself, if you want to compete for the Spring Festival file, you also need superb marketing methods.
On the whole, the four films "The Wandering Earth 2", "Nameless", "Exchange Life" and "Manjiang Hong" are undoubtedly the most favorable competitors in the top four of this year's Spring Festival, and who can rank among the top three depends on the film's scheduling rate and the word-of-mouth factor after its release on New Year's Day.
Family fun themes are scarce and become unique seedlings
The shorter the length, the more popular it is for arrangement
The genre of comedy themes has always been the "just need" of the Spring Festival film market, and the "family fun" atmosphere suitable for the whole family to watch together often allows comedy movies to achieve the market effect of "small and broad". But interestingly, since the "Operation Red Sea" genre broke the ice in 2018, it seems that all themes can appear in the Spring Festival file, and the seven movies released this year cover many themes such as science fiction, suspense, costume, animation, sports, etc., and the family comedy theme that best fits the Spring Festival atmosphere is only "Exchange Life".
In fact, after the economic environment for the resumption of work and production is improving, many people in the industry, like the author, are predicting the release of many comedy-themed movies from different angles during the Spring Festival. After all, we have experienced too many ups and downs in 2022, and we need a comedy blockbuster that allows us to let go of all baggage, dispel all the haze, and let the whole family get together to enjoy a happy time, but for now, such a heavy responsibility seems to fall on "Exchange Life".
Judging from the trailer announced so far, this film does have many comedy elements that fit the temperament of the Spring Festival file. The movie tells the story of Lei Jiayin and Zhang Xiaofei after a blind date, accidentally exchanged bodies with Zhang Youhao, a teenager who secretly loves Zhang Xiaofei, and also accidentally exchanged family members, thus starting a strange "exchange" journey.
Let's start with the laughter, although the trailers are only a little over a minute, they have already made many netizens laugh from the bottom of their hearts. Whether it is Zhang Youhao's "goose-like anxiety" after flapping his wings and breaking thoughts after turning into a big white goose due to a "forehead" hesitation, or the dilemma when he fell in love with the goddess Zhang Xiaofei after exchanging bodies with "uncle" Lei Jiayin, the laughing fruit of "Exchange Life" first appeared.
Obviously, this is a family movie that can capture the peace of mind of all ages, and it is also the one that is most in line with the temperament of the Spring Festival file, especially the special Spring Festival file that has not been able to go home for several years and finally reunited with the family for the New Year, "Exchange Life" should be the most suitable film for the whole family to watch together this year.
Of course, in addition to "Exchange Life", although the other films are not comedy themes, they also have their own "killer features".
For example, the "Wandering Earth" series, which opened the era of science fiction themes in the Chinese film market, although it has been four years since the first release, but the subsequent films such as "Shanghai Fortress" and "Tomorrow's War" have a poor reputation, and the only "Walking on the Moon Alone" with a high box office, the core selling points are also concentrated on high "content" and comedy elements.
"The Wandering Earth 2" is centered on the prequel of the previous one, which will reveal the background proposed by the "Wandering Earth Project", the story is about the destruction of daylight, people have built huge thrusters on the surface of the earth, looking for a new home, with the sci-fi theme and the fan base accumulated by the first part, making this film the most highly anticipated one in this year's Spring Festival file.
The uncertainty of word of mouth and box office of "Nameless" and "Manjiang Red" is relatively high, the former focuses on the hidden front of the treacherous clouds, and the latter tells the story of a group of righteous people eradicating evil in the Southern Song Dynasty. Although the lineup is very good, after all, the Spring Festival file is different from other schedules, and the circle of literary or artistic films is too limited, whether it will affect the theatrical arrangement will be announced on the first day of pre-sale (14th).
According to past experience, three days before the release of the Spring Festival file, the ranking rate determines the basic value of the box office.
For the theater manager, if the set is longer, the number of scenes will be relatively small, because under the premise of the same time period and the same attendance, if a 180-minute film is scheduled for two, a 120-minute film can be scheduled for three times, so the shorter the film, the more popular it is with the arrangement manager.
But this year's Spring Festival file has become the world of ultra-long films, according to the data, "Manjiang Red" 159 minutes, "Nameless" 128 minutes, "The Wandering Earth 2" is a groundbreaking 172 minutes. In contrast, the 110-minute "Exchange Life" and the 115-minute "Deep Sea" are obviously more conducive to scheduling three days before release.
Media Conan (ID: yujibuyuji) learned about the willingness to arrange in several large theater managers across the country is also true, weighing the magnitude, quality, fan power and duration of the film, the top three films in the current willingness to arrange films are "The Wandering Earth 2", "Nameless" and "Exchange Life".
The production team, cast, and national reputation are indispensable
Content is king to determine the final box office
Although the box office in the first three days depends on the rate of arrangement, the box office in the following days is all determined by word of mouth, and the quality of content is always the key to the success or failure of box office results.
Although several films have not yet been released, we can still subjectively predict the quality of the film in advance from the production team, cast, and national reputation of the film.
The first is "The Wandering Earth 2", which can win the championship without accident. Before the first release, in fact, "The Wandering Earth" was not placed on high hopes, and the early scheduling rate did not have any advantages, but as the reputation continued to rise, "The Wandering Earth" finally not only became the dark horse of the year, but also won a total box office of 460,000, becoming the fourth place in the box office of Chinese films.
After four years, the expectations of fans are constantly full, and "The Wandering Earth 2" is not only the original team of director Guo Fan + Wu Jing, but also invited Andy Lau to form a "double male protagonist mode". Judging from the continuous release of posters and trailers in December last year, the atmosphere and texture of the story have steadily improved compared to four years ago.
With the fan base paved by the blockbuster of the previous work, coupled with Liu Tianwang's huge box office driving force, I want to see the number of people leading the way, if the story of the film does not have a big bug, it should be won at the box office, at least more than 300,000.
In contrast, the box office predictions of "Nameless" by various professional bodies are more controversial. On the one hand, it is the main theme film produced by Bona Film, and it is a popular spy war theme in recent years, coupled with the blessing of top movie casts such as Tony Leung and Zhou Xun, as well as Wang Yibo's incomparable fan appeal, it can be said that "Nameless" is definitely a film with explosive appearance.
But on the other hand, director Cheng Er's works often fall into the dilemma of "applauding but not applauding", and Tony Leung has lost some popularity because of the previous defeat of "Monster Hunt 2", and how long Wang Yibo's fan effect can last is unknown, so some professionals have reservations about the final box office of "Nameless".
"Manjiang Hong" is the most mysterious film in the Spring Festival file, and the early secrecy work is too good that some people think that this is an airborne Spring Festival film. Zhang Yimou's artistic level is undoubted, it can be said that the use of lenses and colors is unmatched, even the posters and trailers are the most textured in several films, and the theme of costume suspense is the strength of Lao Mozi.
On the other hand, Shen Teng and Yi Yangqianxi are both box office managers, Zhang Yimou & Shen Teng & Yi Yangqianxi seem to be cooperating with each other for the first time, too many "first BUFF" bonuses, and the box office of "Manjiang Red" should not be bad.
The other "Exchange Life" is also a relatively stable one in terms of team, lineup and national popularity.
The first is the production company behind Ruyi Film and Television, which is the company that created the box office myth of "Hello, Li Huanying", and the expectations of Ruyi inside and outside the industry are very high, and "Exchange Life" and "Hello, Li Huanying" are the same genre, both are comedy works with tears in laughter, and the foundation is stable.
Director Su Lun, the previous work "Living Together in Time and Space" won a win-win at the box office, and the strength has been verified and the quality is stable.
In terms of the lineup, Zhang Xiaofei and Lei Jiayin are the most popular actors, plus both of them have created explosive film and television works before, and what kind of different hormonal sparks will collide with a funny and cute combination, which is really expected, so it seems that the national reputation is also stable.
Coupled with the special festive atmosphere of the Spring Festival file and the family comedy genre without competitors, although it may be difficult to compete with a film of the magnitude of "The Wandering Earth 2", "Exchange Life" ranks among the top three at the box office of the Spring Festival file, and there is no big problem.
In addition, the "Bear Haunted" series, which has never been absent from the Spring Festival file, continues to launch "Bear Haunted, Accompany Me "Bear Core" this year, which can be said to be the most stable Chinese animated film, which can share 500 million box office every year, and won nearly 1 billion last year. But this year there is another animated film "Deep Sea" that is not low, and the two works may have some box office diversion due to similar audience circles.
The box office expectations of another "Chinese Table Tennis Jedi Strikes Back" are relatively low, after all, the popularity of sports-themed movies has passed, and it is difficult for the stereotyped narrative model to gain an advantage in the theater market, not to mention the fiercely competitive Spring Festival file.
Overall, "The Wandering Earth 2" is basically a foregone conclusion at the box office, "Manjiang Red" and "Exchange Life" are likely to be ranked second, and whether "Nameless" can counterattack depends on the reputation of the three days of release. But regardless of the box office ranking, the long-lost blooming of the Spring Festival file still boosted the confidence of the Chinese film industry, it is understood that there are still many film projects planned to start after the Spring Festival, with more quality masterpieces projected, started, completed, released, China's film industry has returned to the peak and continues to surpass, the future can be expected.