Iran's response to the United States on negotiations on returning to the nuclear deal may be difficult to reach in the near future

Reporter | Anjing

After the European Union submitted the final text of the negotiations on its return to the Iranian nuclear agreement, the United States handed over the country's reply to Iran at the end of August. Today, Iran has also handed over its reply to the United States through the European Union.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said the response provided a constructive way to conclude the negotiations, but the U.S. State Department believed that Iran's response was "not constructive," and some officials even used "retreat" to describe Iran's response.

U.S. officials have previously revealed that Iran has abandoned the "red line" requirement it has been adhering to, and the outside world is optimistic about the rapid agreement between the United States and Iran. But the latest outflows suggest that it is difficult for the two countries to reach an agreement in the near future.

Another stalemate

According to the Tehran Times reported on September 2, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Kanani announced on the same day that Iran had handed over the reply to the United States on Thursday night after receiving a reply from the United States on the return to negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement.

Kanani did not disclose the content of Iran's reply, saying only that Iran's response "provides a constructive path to the final conclusion of the negotiations."

The United States has a different view of Iran's claims.

On Friday, a U.S. State Department spokesman confirmed that a response from Iran had been received and is currently being evaluated, after which feedback will be given to Iran through the European Union. Regarding the content of Iran's reply, the US State Department said it was "unfortunate and not constructive."

In an interview with The American Political News Network, U.S. officials said Iran's response was not only uninspiring, but also "backsliding." EU officials expressed a similar view, arguing that Iran's response was "negative and unwarranted."

On August 8, the United States and Iran concluded a new round of negotiations in Vienna on a return to the Iranian nuclear deal. The content is based on a document submitted by borel, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, which is also known as the final text.

After the negotiations, neither the U.S. nor Iran officially announced how it would respond to the final text. At the end of August, senior U.S. officials revealed that Iran had abandoned the "red line" demand it had been insisting on: removing Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of terrorist organizations in the United States.

Removing Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of terrorist organizations is a major point of disagreement in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, and the United States has insisted that sanctions against Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have nothing to do with the JCPOA. Biden even made harsh remarks, threatening that even if the Iranian nuclear agreement collapsed, the organization would not be removed from the list of terrorist organizations.

In addition to making concessions on the list of terrorist organizations, U.S. officials revealed that Iran has also waived its demand that the United States lift sanctions on several companies associated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iranian hardliners have sent out a list of U.S. compromises. According to the list, after the United States and Iran reach an agreement, the content of the agreement will be implemented in four phases within 120 days.

Immediately after the agreement is signed, the United States will lift sanctions on 17 Iranian banks, including the Iranian central bank and banks linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; The United States will also lift sanctions on 150 institutions and entities, including those associated with Iran's Supreme Leader, Khamenei.

Separately, South Korea will unfreeze Iran's $7 billion in assets in the country; Within 120 days, Iran will be allowed to sell 50 million barrels of oil. Shipping intelligence company Kpler estimates that Iran has about 100 million barrels of oil loaded on tankers to be shipped quickly when needed. Half of the oil loaded on board is crude oil and the rest is condensate.

With information from U.S. officials and this list of U.S. compromises, there is optimism that the U.S.-Iran will reach an agreement in the near future. The US State Department's statement on Friday broke the expectations of the outside world, and it may be difficult for the United States and Iran to reach an agreement in the short term.

Major disagreements

After a statement from the State Department, White House National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said the United States and Iran had cleared some of their differences in recent weeks, "but there are still differences unresolved."

Iranian and U.S. sources revealed that the current differences between the two sides are focused on two sides.

One of the differences is Iran's demand that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stop its investigation into Iran's undeclared nuclear material. In 2019, the IAEA found traces of undeclared uranium at three of Iran's nuclear facilities, and the agency has been investigating the matter ever since.

The IAEA has repeatedly met with Iran on this matter, arguing that Iran has not given a reasonable explanation for the origin and destination of the relevant uranium material. Iran accused the IAEA of investigating being unfair, unprofessional and politically motivated.

On Monday, Iranian President Raishi warned that it would be "pointless" to discuss a return to the JCPOA if the IAEA did not stop the investigation. On Friday, White House spokesman Jean-Pierre said there was no restrictive relationship between returning to negotiations on the Iranian nuclear deal and the IAEA investigation.

Another difference is that Iran requires the United States to provide economic guarantees to prevent the future U.S. government from undermining Iran's economic interests after it withdraws from the Iranian nuclear agreement again.

U.S. Republicans are adamantly opposed to the JCPOA. Former Vice President Pence has said that if the Biden administration makes a deal with Iran, by the time the Republicans take office, Republicans will tear up the deal on the "first day." Iran worries that even if the country now has a deal with the United States, foreign companies will not be willing to invest in Iran, considering the possibility of future REPUBLICAN rise to power in the United States.

Previously, it was reported that the United States agreed that if the country withdraws from the Iranian nuclear agreement again and imposes sanctions on Iran, companies with economic contacts with Iran will enjoy exemptions for up to one year. But then Watson, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said the United States had not made new concessions on the issue of returning to negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement.

As negotiations on the return to the Iranian nuclear deal reach an impasse, the United States and Iran continue to exert pressure on each other.

Last month, the United States carried out three air strikes against pro-Iranian forces in Syria, which then launched rocket attacks on U.S. bases in Syria, injuring three U.S. troops. On Thursday, Iran seized two U.S. Navy drones in the Red Sea before returning them at the behest of the U.S. military.

This week, Iran also expanded the use of advanced centrifuges at the Natanz nuclear facility, starting uranium enrichment activities with a second IR-6 centrifuge. The JCPOA only allows Iran to use the IR-1 first-generation centrifuge.

Ali Vaez, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, pointed out that if the United States reaches an agreement with Iran, the agreement may need to be reviewed by the United States. As the U.S. midterm elections approach, more Democrats will avoid debating Iran in Congress. He believes that given the current state of negotiations, it is difficult to imagine that the United States and Iran can reach an agreement before the midterm elections.

Eurasia Group previously predicted a 45 percent chance of a U.S.-Iran return to the Iranian nuclear deal this year. Analysts expect iran's crude oil exports to reach 1 million to 1.3 million bpd in the next three to six months once the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement.