【Text/Catherine Entina, Translator/Master student Xia Qing, Shanghai University of Foreign Chinese】
What happened in Kosovo since last night (July 31) is not surprising, and the escalation of the conflict caused by provocations by albanians in the Kosovo region is bound to happen sometime after Russia's military operations against Ukraine. To its chagrin, it happens to be in August, where the holidays are most prevalent, and there are signs that this is just the beginning.
Why is the escalation of the conflict in Kosovo not surprising? Since the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the Serbs have been a completely unresolved national problem in the Balkans. The issue of the Serbs concerns not only the provinces of Kosovo and Metohija, but also the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a "man-made state" that has been in severe decline for nearly a decade. This is a question about the future of Montenegrin Serbs. Montenegro is building its own national model according to the template of Ukraine's "anti-Russian" program. Finally, it is also about the status of the Serbian Orthodox Church, which is being tightly surrounded by pagans.
A closer look reveals that the provinces of Kosovo and Metohija are the "dead ends" in the collective game between Serbia and the West today.
First, the Serbian and Kosovo authorities have been negotiating for a long time on the normalization of relations under the coordination of the United Nations and the European Union. Over the past decade, the two sides have had many discussions on the terms of Serbia's recognition of the so-called independence of Kosovo. That is to say, the situation that has been created is the result of negotiations between the Serbian and Kosovo authorities, and it can only be so, and the West has no doubt about this. In 2011, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel made politically erroneous reservations about Kosovo, not without reason. After that, the EU's darling Boris Tadić lost his presidency. One early morning in June, German Chancellor Zollz said in the Kosovo region that negotiations between Serbia and the Kosovo authorities should end with mutual recognition. Although the phrase "normalization of legally binding relations" appeared in all EU documents after Merkel' affair, Scholz's words still seem less professional.
Secondly, 95 per cent of the population of the province of Kosovo and Metohija is Albanian, while Serbs are not only concentrated in the northern part of the Kosovo region (Serbs are the most populous group in the north), but also scattered in small enclaves in the south. As a result, any successful military operation by the Serbian army in the region would be seen as "ethnic cleansing" by the outside world, and apart from confirming the barbarian image of Serbia in Europe, I do not understand what such a military operation can bring to Serbia.
In recent years, Serbia has been actively promoting the "Open Balkans" initiative, which is in fact aimed at establishing a transport-logistics corridor through Serbs and Albanians (Tirana) to the southern sea and into the port of Durrës. Serbia could use it to normalize relations with Albanians and to develop economic cooperation with North African countries. Of course, this could also serve as one of NATO's important passages in South-Eastern Europe, but there are also indications that this is not the real reason why the Serbian leadership needs it.
Third, the Serbian people held large-scale rallies (more than in Russia) to express their support for Russia. According to different polls, more than 80% of Serbian citizens support Russia. The changes in the geopolitical situation have greatly changed the emotional perception of reality among Serbs: they believe in and await a revival in Russia, which is the only chance to restore national pride and historical justice. In their eyes, a strong Russia is a strong Serbia.
Pro-Russian demonstration in Belgrade Photo from social media
It is voter support for Russia that makes Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic unprepared and unlikely to impose sanctions on Russia. Similarly, he is even less able than all his predecessors to make any rash moves on Kosovo. What is happening now is tantamount to betraying Serbia and reclaiming this sacred land in some way, which the Serbs will not accept. Complicating the situation even more is the fact that Serbia is forming a new cabinet and government after the April 2022 election, and Vucic wants to delay the outcome of the cabinet government as much as possible in order to create a balanced political structure – neither to the West nor to Russia". September is the deadline, and the provocations in Kosovo seem to be a reminder to the West to hurry up.
Finally, it is an open fact that the Kosovo issue cannot be resolved through negotiations for the West, and especially for the European Union. EU mediation failed as early as November 2018, when negotiations between serbian and Kosovo authorities were halted by Albanians imposing 100% tariffs on exports from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. If the West admits that mediation has failed, it is showing its own incompetence.
For the EU, the Kosovo region is not the Middle East, much less Ukraine, but a region that openly falls within a particular geopolitical sphere of influence (all countries in this sphere of influence aspire to membership of the EU), a point recognized by all the geopolitical powers (the United States, Russia, Turkey and China). Small provocations in the area, which then end with a compromise with the Serbs or a Serb counterattack while finally recognizing the so-called independent status of Kosovo — is a good solution.
Moreover, Serbia's sharp response will give the United States, Belgium, Germany and the United Kingdom an opportunity to denounce Vucic's repetition of the "Putin proposal" and provide a "comprehensive" response to the Serbs. Without external support, the Serbs did not have enough air defense capabilities (the West would only respond to any reaction from Serbia in the air).
It is unlikely that Russia will now help Serbia, as it must repel ukraine's counteroffensive in August and consolidate its position on the territories it has occupied. No other country will help Serbia on Kosovo, and such a situation gives the West two wonderful cards: the first is to say "The Russians abandoned you"; The second is "propaganda that Serbia would not lose Kosovo without the conflict in Ukraine". All the assertions of the President of Serbia that "the big powers will not consider the impact of their actions on small States" are very much in line with the plot of the latter. Well, finally, if Russia stands up for the Serbs ... But we remember this history from a century ago.
In the current situation in Kosovo, the only question is: How far will the Western countries allow Albanians to go on the Kosovo issue? The reasons are clearly far-fetched: license plates in Serbia and Kosovo will be applied in Kosovo and Metohija, and as early as the early 2010s, a similar decision was made on the use of personal identity cards in Kosovo through technical dialogue. The question of whether to switch to Kosovo license plates in both areas was finally postponed until a common solution was found between the two sides.
Many believe that the current escalation of the situation in Kosovo is in the interest of both sides. For Serbia, in order to show the EU and the German authorities the gravity of the situation and postpone the decision to choose which chair to sit in: the "Vienna" chair with a beautiful backrest or the Stable "Stool" of Russia-Belarus, because Serbia can no longer sit comfortably in these two chairs as before. The Kosovo region attempts to give further impetus to international recognition of its sovereignty and to gain seats in a number of international organizations and even membership in the United Nations in the context of Russia's military operations against Ukraine.
Vucic's irritability during his emergency address to the nation on July 31, 2022, also confirmed this. On the one hand, he spoke of the fact that there was no state to help Serbia — neither the Countries of the East nor the West wanted to understand the complexity of the situation in Serbia. On the other hand, he mentioned very enthusiastically the long night conversation with Miroslav Lajčák. It should be added that the Kosovo authorities were anxious to escalate the conflict: they began to act hours after the decision to implement the plan, although they could have calmed down in a few days.
On July 31, local time, Serbian President Vucic delivered a national speech pictured from the surging image
However, Serbia, the Kosovo region and the major powers appear to have insufficient control over the current situation and may be vulnerable to loss of control. For nearly a decade, various media movements (not necessarily associated with patriotic feelings), the shattering of the dream of integration into Europe, and the kind of Russian revival that Serbs like — traditionalism and beautiful gilded uniforms — have all pushed Serbian public opinion in a direction that does not allow the state to abandon the Kosovo region. If the Serbian people could rally on a large scale in support of Russia, it is impossible to predict how they would behave in response to events in their country. Moreover, Kosovo's leader, Albin Kurti, is no ordinary demagogue, a professional politician who grew up in barricade warfare in the late 1990s. After years of struggle, he came to power under the slogan "No negotiations with the Serbs".
It is also important to note that in the south of Serbia there are a number of Albanian and Muslim areas (there are three sizable areas) that in many ways are only legally Serbian. How could Kurti have given up on the issue of a territorial swap between serbian and Kosovo authorities, the area most likely in the Presevo Valley, where Kurti and Kurti's predecessor, the infamous Hashem Sánch, had discussed the issue of territorial exchanges between the Authorities of Serbia and Kosovo?
Finally, the October elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina were by no means a simple event. Therefore, it is still necessary to wait for relevant reports from the Balkan region. Even if today's Kosovo region is just a test firing, we will hear new and more active artillery lines in the surrounding area at the latest in early October. In short, the Balkans are a large region – from Moldova to Turkey.
(Originally published in Russian on August 1 on the website of Russia in Global Politics)
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