The "cold to hot" Arctic: Under the melting ice cap, the Arctic may become a new battlefield for the game between Russia and the West

According to a report by Bloomberg on December 24, 2023, the United States unilaterally announced the expansion of its claims to the continental shelf in the Arctic and large areas of the Bering Sea. The continental shelf claimed by the United States covers an area of about 1 million square kilometers, mainly in the Arctic and the Bering Sea.

Although the US side claimed that the expansion of its claim to the Arctic continental shelf would not trigger a territorial dispute with Russia, its unilateral decision was strongly opposed by Russia. The chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, Haritonov, responded that the decision was "unacceptable" and could lead to an increase in tensions.

Once upon a time, the Arctic was considered an "exceptional" place, unaffected by geopolitical factors. However, climate change is changing the face of the entire Arctic region, making the once-frozen shipping lanes impassable for longer periods of time and exposing resources hidden under the ice. In recent years, especially after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the perception of "Arctic exceptionalism" is being broken, and this extremely cold land, which is becoming increasingly strategically important, is becoming another battleground in the game between Russia and the West, led by the United States.

"Treasures" under the ice sheet

Although the United States claims that the expansion of its claims to the Arctic continental shelf is "a matter of geography rather than resources," it is widely believed that the untapped treasure trove of resources beneath the Arctic ice sheet is one of the key objectives of its expanded sovereignty claim. The U.S. is seeking critical minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy projects, which the Biden administration has identified as a key issue for U.S. national security.

According to Xinhua News Agency, according to the Arctic oil and gas assessment data released by the United States Geological Survey in 2008, the 25 regions north of the Arctic Circle have about 18.6 billion tons (134 billion barrels of oil equivalent) reserves to be discovered, accounting for about 15% of the world's conventional oil resources to be discovered, and natural gas is about 47 trillion cubic meters (42.3 billion tons of oil equivalent), accounting for about 30% of the world's conventional natural gas resources to be discovered. In addition, the Arctic is rich in metallic and non-metallic minerals. In the context of the transformation of the global energy structure, these resources are "treasures" that need to be developed urgently for all countries.

According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the continental shelf of a coastal State, which includes the entire natural extension of its land territory beyond its territorial sea, may extend from a baseline from which the breadth of its territorial sea is measured to a distance of 200 nautical miles from the outer edge of the continental margin. The fixed points of the outer boundary of the continental shelf on the seabed shall not exceed 350 nautical miles from the baselines from which the breadth of the territorial sea is measured, or 100 nautical miles from the 2,500-metre isobath connecting points at a depth of 2,500 metres. Within the 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone and within the "outer continental shelf", which extends beyond 200 nautical miles, coastal States have the right to explore and exploit resources. It is precisely for this reason that the sovereignty of the continental shelf in the Arctic region has become the focus of attention of countries seeking more opportunities for resource development.

In addition to the United States, Russia, Canada, Norway and Denmark have all made claims to the continental shelf in the Arctic region in recent years and submitted relevant materials to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf established under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. However, the scope of the continental shelf claimed by various countries often overlaps, which in turn leads to disputes over sovereignty over the continental shelf.

It is reported that about 520,400 square kilometers of the expanded continental shelf announced by the United States are located in the area where Alaska extends north to the Arctic Ocean, including an area that overlaps with Canada's sovereignty claim to the continental shelf. Another 176,300 square kilometers of an area in the Bering Sea between Alaska and Russia is on the U.S. side of the U.S.-Russian maritime border, which the State Department says will not trigger a territorial dispute with Russia. But in the future, the United States will need to delineate maritime boundaries with Canada in areas where its sovereignty claims overlap.

Although the United States claims that the claim is based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and says that the United States has an "outer continental shelf" of about 1 million square kilometers extending beyond 200 nautical miles in the Arctic, the Atlantic Ocean (east coast), the Bering Sea, the Pacific Ocean (west coast), the Mariana Islands, and the Gulf of Mexico, the United States has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Rebecca Pincas, director of the Polar Research Institute of the Wilson Center, a US think tank, recently analyzed that the United States' behavior of circumventing the convention and unilaterally expanding its claim to sovereignty over the continental shelf without submitting materials to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf may arouse the anger of other countries.

Regarding the US approach, Kosachev, deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Council (upper house of parliament), said that the US move lacks international legal basis, and the international community has the right not to recognize the "new borders" it claims. The chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, Haritonov, responded that the decision was "unacceptable" and could lead to an increase in tensions.

A "high-speed corridor" connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans

In addition to natural resources, the navigable time of Arctic shipping lanes is gradually becoming longer under the influence of climate change under the melting sea ice in the Arctic.

The Arctic shipping lane, which passes through the Arctic Ocean, is a "high-speed corridor" connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, which can shorten the transportation cycle, reduce costs, and have huge economic benefits. The route consists of three main shipping lanes: the Northwest Passage (NWP) in the waters of the Canadian Arctic archipelago, the Northeast Passage (NEP) off the Siberian coast of northern Russia, and the Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) through the central Arctic Ocean. Among them, the "Northeast Passage" is currently a relatively long navigation route in the Arctic region, which can last from two and a half to three months, and the period is roughly from late July to mid-early October every year.

For Russia, which is facing all-round Western sanctions and the destruction of its logistics chain after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Arctic shipping lanes play a crucial role in its "breakthrough".

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in the face of Western sanctions in many fields, including Russian energy, Russia accelerated the process of "turning east". Especially in the energy sector, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak has said that in May 2022, Russia's oil exports to Asian countries have exceeded exports to Europe. Throughout 2022, nearly 40 million tons of oil and petroleum products originally supplied by Russia to the European market were resold to the Eastern market. Against this background, the northern shipping lanes have become a window to help Russia achieve a "breakthrough."

In 2022, Russia announced that it would invest about 1.8 trillion rubles (about 143.7 billion yuan) by 2035 for the development of the "Northern Sea Route", that is, the "Northeast Passage" in the Arctic region. Located between the Barents Sea near the Russian-Norwegian border and the Bering Strait in the North Pacific Ocean, the route stretches for more than 5,550 kilometers and is the shortest shipping route between Asia and Europe, shortened by one-third compared to the traditional Strait of Malacca and Suez Canal routes. In December 2023, Novak said that Russia's oil transportation along the "Northern Sea Route" in 2023 reached 1.5 million tons, and it will continue to grow in the future.

At present, due to the long ice time of the shipping lanes in the Arctic region, the short navigable time of the whole year, and the high cost of icebreaking and insurance, the potential of Russia's "Northern Sea Route" cannot be fully released. However, Russia is speeding up the year-round opening of this route. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing in October 2023 that the Northern Sea Route will be open to icebreaker-class cargo ships all year round from 2024.

Russia is not alone in paying attention to the Arctic shipping lanes. Now, with the chain reaction triggered by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the increasingly tense situation in the Red Sea, the traditional shipping routes between Asia and Europe have been greatly impacted. In addition, due to the ongoing drought, the Panama Canal has deteriorated the passage of ships and hindered the movement of goods. The blockage of the two major shipping arteries has made the fragility of global supply chains increasingly prominent, and the Arctic shipping lanes have also attracted increasing international attention.

Nikolai Korchunov, ambassador-at-large of the Russian Foreign Ministry and chairman of the Arctic Council's Committee of Senior Officials, recently said that Russia's "Northern Sea Route" could become an alternative route to the Red Sea route.

However, as with the abundant natural resources of the Arctic, there are differing positions on control of the Arctic shipping lanes. As the navigable time of shipping lanes slowly becomes longer under the influence of climate change, the competition for Arctic shipping lanes is likely to become even more intense.

According to the Global Times, citing the Russian newspaper "Izvestia", in December 2023, the formation of the Russian Northern Fleet was just announced

A mixed aviation corps to protect Russian shipping lanes in the Arctic region. The corps has commenced combat missions and its strength includes two fighter aviation regiments, one mixed aviation regiment and one helicopter regiment. Russian experts note that at present, Russia needs to strengthen the protection of its northern borders due to the disputes over the ownership of the Russian Arctic shipping lanes in some countries.

Militarization Trend Pressing the "Accelerator Button"

Driven by the competing interests in the Arctic region, the militarization of the Arctic is intensifying. In addition to resource competition, the Arctic, as the shortest path for ICBMs and bombers between the United States and Russia to reach each other's targets, has long been a key area in the military game before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the militarization of the Arctic region has been pressed the "acceleration button".

Shortly after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO held the "Cold Response-2022" military Xi exercise in Norway and its nearby waters in March-April 2022, which was also the largest Xi NATO has held near the Arctic in nearly 30 years. At that time, Sweden and Finland, which had not yet applied to join NATO, participated in the exercises with 25 NATO member states.

Subsequently, Finland and Sweden jointly applied to join NATO in May 2022. Among them, Finland has become the 31st member of NATO in April 2023. And once Sweden completes the process of joining NATO, Russia will become the only non-NATO country among the eight countries around the Arctic – Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia, and the United States.

In October 2022, the United States released a new version of the National Strategy for the Arctic Region. The new strategy places special emphasis on "growing strategic competition in the Arctic," prioritizing U.S. national security ahead of the environment, economic development, and international cooperation as the main pillars of U.S. interests in the region, and calling for deeper cooperation among allies to strengthen the military presence in the region.

At the end of 2023, the United States signed defense agreements with Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, and the three Arctic countries announced the opening of a number of military facilities to the United States. Previously, the United States signed similar defense agreements with Norway and Iceland. Some analysts believe that the defense partnership network between the United States and the Nordic region has been further improved, and more cooperation will be carried out in the future on the integration of military forces in multiple regions, including the Arctic.

At the same time, Russia, as a traditional Arctic country, established the Joint Strategic Command of the Northern Fleet as early as 2014, and upgraded it to an independent military administrative unit in 2021, while regularly holding military exercises in high latitudes, and reopening some bases and airfields in the Arctic that were abandoned after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In July 2022, in the new 55-page edition of the Oceanic Doctrine of the Russian Federation, 22 pages mentioned the Arctic. Among them, Russia identified the activities of the United States and NATO in the Arctic as the "main security threat." In the face of NATO's "encirclement" in the Arctic region, the Russian Ministry of Defense made a decision in July 2023 that the Northern Fleet will build a new combined army of various arms including motorized infantry brigades, regiments and divisions, with the key task of defending Russia's northern borders, and members of the group army will receive polar combat training.

Regarding the increasing militarization of the Arctic region, Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Yevmenov said in December 2023 that the threat to Russia in the Arctic region is increasing with the interruption of cooperation between other countries around the Arctic and Russia, Finland's "accession" and Sweden's application for "accession", as well as the persistence of competition for resources and shipping lanes that have traditionally led to escalation of tensions in the Arctic.

Denmark, which has just taken over the chairmanship of the Nordic Defense Cooperation Organization (NORDEFCO) from Sweden, also said a few days ago that the security environment in the Arctic region is expected to become more unstable due to increased military activity. Citing NATO's Strategic Concept 2022, Denmark noted that Russia has the ability to "undermine Allied reinforcements and freedom of navigation in the North Atlantic," and said Denmark's goal is to "keep tensions low in the North Atlantic and the Arctic region as they face new and special challenges."

The cooperation between the "cold to hot" Arctic and the "hot to cold".

In December 2023, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released the 2023 Arctic Report Sheet. The report noted that the Arctic region experienced its warmest summer in 2023 since records began in 1900, with an average temperature of 6.4 degrees Celsius from July to September, the highest in more than 120 years.

In recent years, a number of studies have shown that the Arctic is becoming the fastest warming region in the world. Warmer temperatures are making the Arctic increasingly strategically important and competitive. However, cooperation in the Arctic has entered a "cold winter". Within the framework of international cooperation in the Arctic region, Russia's cooperation with other countries has almost come to a standstill.

The Arctic Council, the most important cooperation mechanism in the Arctic region, has effectively ceased after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In March 2022, seven member states except Russia – the United States, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland – announced the suspension of their participation in the Arctic Council. In May 2023, Norway took over the rotating presidency of the Arctic Council from Russia, and in September it said the Council was planning for a recovery. However, in the context of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Arctic Council still faces many difficulties in resuming normal operations.

In September of the same year, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced its withdrawal from the Euro-Arctic Council on the Barents Sea, which consists of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the European Commission. According to Xinhua news agency, the Russian side said that the activities of the council have been almost paralyzed since March 2022 due to the fault of Western members. Finland, the current presidency of the Council, has not confirmed the transfer of the rotating presidency to Russia in October 2023, which violates the principle of rotation and disrupts relevant work preparations. As a result, the Russian side was forced to announce its withdrawal from the mechanism.

For countries bordering the Arctic, which are struggling to resume cooperation, the relevant cooperation mechanisms in the region have been paralyzed. This not only deprives all parties of communication channels, but also makes relevant scientific research deadlocked under geopolitical competition.

It is reported that most EU and NATO member states have suspended or significantly restricted academic research involving Russia. Data sharing has been largely banned, and the ability to conduct scholarly exchanges has been extremely limited, which has adversely affected climate research in the Arctic. At a conference on the Arctic in Iceland in October 2023, former Icelandic President Grímsson said that a fundamental question for countries to consider is whether "meaningful Arctic science" and "meaningful global climate science" can be done without access to Arctic data from Russia.

Norway's ambassador to the Arctic Council, Morten Hoglund, also said frankly in an interview a few days ago: "Despite the occasional turmoil, the Arctic Council has been able to more or less continue to work hard." But this time, it's impossible to continue as if nothing happened. Excluding Russia would mean that a significant part of the Arctic region would be excluded from the organization and would also weaken the role of the Arctic Council as a knowledge-sharing platform. ”

Hoglund additionally added: "At this moment, of course, we cannot plan to normalize relations with the Russian Federation." We don't know how long this phase will last, or what will happen in the next 10, 15, 20 years. But when dealing with climate or other environmental issues in the Arctic, it is risky to press the pause button for too long. Can we afford it?"