Since the end of 2019, the world has been shrouded in the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic for nearly three years. Today, in many parts of the world, the prevention and control measures against the new crown pneumonia epidemic have been lifted, and people have taken off their masks and lived and worked as before, the global pandemic of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is not over!
Looking at the global epidemic, the number of confirmed cases has exceeded 4 million, this number is still growing, when will the new crown epidemic end, I am afraid that many friends are very concerned about the problem, but unfortunately, from the current epidemic situation, the specific end time of the epidemic is really difficult to predict.
If we want to estimate, we can only make a preliminary speculation based on the current situation.
Why does the new crown virus mutate so fast?
The new coronavirus belongs to the β coronavirus, this virus has a coating, the particles are round or oval, the surface is uneven, the shape is like a crown, so it is called a coronavirus, this virus is another coronavirus in addition to the 6 coronaviruses known to humans so far, so it is called a new coronavirus.
Viruses mutate because they are constantly replicating themselves in large quantities, and the probability of error (mutation) is high every time they spread from one person to another, for example, assuming you type very fast, and as you type more, the longer it takes.
The more likely you are to make a typo during this time, which is exactly how the virus mutates. The greater the number of people infected by a pandemic and the longer it rages, the more likely it is that the virus will evolve, especially in unvaccinated individuals.
Relatively speaking, RNA viruses are prone to mutation because they are single-stranded viruses, and if there is a mistake in the replication process, there is no other chain to correct the error, so the rate of variation is relatively high, such viruses include coronavirus, influenza virus, hepatitis C virus, etc., which is also one of the reasons why the new coronavirus is easy to mutate.
When will the COVID-19 pandemic end? Huang Jianping, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, made a prediction
During the three-year anti-epidemic period, the strain has been constantly mutating, and since the emergence of Omicron, there has been another large-scale outbreak of infection. Many people said that their hearts were very tired, and they did not know how the follow-up of the new crown pandemic would develop, when it would end, and whether it could return to a dull life.
Academician Huang Jianping's team predicts: An article published by the team of academician Huang Jianping of Lanzhou University on "Whether the Omiljung pandemic will end" predicts that the new crown pandemic will end around November 2023.
A team of academicians From Lanzhou University, Academician Huang Jianping published a commentary article titled "Is the Omilon Pandemic Coming to An End" in Cell, a sub-journal of Innovation, in which the research team used the Global COVID-19 Prediction System (GPCP) and an improved SEIR model to predict the development of the epidemic.
The number of imported cases abroad continues to increase, and there are still new cases of new coronavirus infection, which will not end in a short period of time, and it is necessary to strengthen prevention and control to prevent the continuous outbreak of the epidemic.
This is just a prediction, when the new crown virus will be completely eliminated is still an unknown, and it should be adjusted accordingly according to the development of the subsequent epidemic, so we still need to do a good job of protective measures, both to protect ourselves and to be responsible for others.
The relevant departments believe that the virus elimination must meet three conditions
First, the need for the spread of the new crown virus is getting weaker and weaker;
Second, vaccines should be more effective, it can play a preventive role, but also can block the disease at an early stage;
Third, the global epidemic situation has decreased, and the virus solution is targeted.
Experts predict that the epidemic will be difficult to end in a short period of time, and we must be mentally prepared to fight the new crown for a long time. It is necessary to further strengthen confidence in defeating the new crown, and at the same time not be blinded by the optimistic message that "the epidemic will end this year".
"Dynamic zeroing" is still an important prevention and control measure
Unlike other countries' approach to fighting the epidemic, the mainland has adopted "dynamic zero clearance" prevention and control measures.
The core of "dynamic zero clearance" is rapid response, precise prevention and control. Taking Tianjin as an example, when the epidemic occurred in Tianjin in January 2022, the nucleic acid testing speed of all employees became faster and faster, and the fourth sampling took only 4.5 hours to exceed 10 million, and the sealing and control area was accurate to merchants and units.
China's anti-epidemic practice shows that the 1.4 billion Chinese adhere to the "dynamic clearance" epidemic prevention line is the greatest contribution to the international fight against the epidemic and the stable recovery of the global economy.
We are not pursuing "zero infection", but with the lowest social cost, in the shortest possible time to control the epidemic, to ensure that the vast majority of areas, the vast majority of people production and life normal, if not the pursuit of dynamic clearance, the spread of social aspects will continue to connect, the formation of a large-scale rebound.
The fundamental purpose of dynamic zero clearance is to find an epidemic, extinguish an epidemic, and prevent the epidemic from 'taking root' in the local area.