Q1 China Market Mobile Phone Shipment Data Report: Unification under Chaos

Recently, the mobile phone Q1 data of major market research companies have been released, and the famous IDC, Canalys, and Counterpoint have successively announced the statistics of smartphone shipments in the Chinese market in Q1 2022. However, a closer look at these data is really maddening, because there are huge differences in the shipment data of various market research companies: not only the top 5 manufacturers are different, but also in terms of market share, there is also a huge divergence. For example, Counterpoint believes that vivo shipments are the first, accounting for up to 19.7% of the market, while Canalys data believes that vivo shipments are only fourth, accounting for 16%. The data difference between the two M&A companies is as high as 3.7%, which means that in the statistics of the two M&A companies, vivo's shipments difference has reached 20%. In the market share data of other manufacturers, there are also large differences between the three reports.

The reason for the data discrepancy

Although in the past shipment data, due to the statistical methods and channel collection of each family, there must be certain differences in the data of the three major market research companies, but like this year's Q1, such a huge difference is still quite rare, we do not doubt the fairness of these market research companies themselves, then the biggest difference in data may be because the original statistical methods and channel collection are not in line with the existing market, resulting in some companies' data differences.

When the market is stable, the market adjustment is relatively simple, and the accuracy is relatively high, but if the market changes drastically, then the original market adjustment method is difficult to keep up with the market changes, so it is easy to deviate from the survey data, and from this year's situation. The impact of the epidemic will not only affect the offline markets of many cities, but also distort the data of the market research company.

At the same time, brands have experienced rollercoaster-like ups and downs in recent years. From robbing the market left by Huawei when it faded to the market loss after the rise of Glory; from the OV tilt sub-brand, striving for the online market to the glory of Xiaomi's offline store opening fever, competing for the offline market; from the rapid growth of the total mobile phone market to the uncertain and then declining.

All these changes have actually put forward new requirements for the sampling and statistical methods of the market research company, but the violent fluctuations in the market environment in a short period of time may make it difficult for the market research company to adapt, resulting in data errors.

Due to the huge differences in the data of each market research company, we can not know which market research company's data is closer to the real situation, so directly quoting the data of which company may be biased, but combined with the data of the three companies, we can still see some commonalities and market trends.

Commonality one: the domestic mobile phone market has shrunk in an all-round way, and the stock market is almost a foregone conclusion

The reports of the three companies reflect the overall contraction of domestic mobile phone shipments, in fact, this is not something that only appeared in Q1 this year, in fact, in recent years, the decline in domestic mobile phone shipments has become the norm, and growth has become a temporary rebound behavior. In this regard, there have been various interpretations, such as the impact of the epidemic to reduce mobile phone sales; mobile phones are no longer a product that shows identity, and everyone is reluctant to replace them; young people's mentality is more flat, not pursuing new mobile phones and so on.

These statements have a certain truth, but we believe that the most critical factor is that mobile phones are highly mature, and their market has changed from the original incremental market to the stock market. In the past, the increase in mobile phones mainly relied on two markets to complete, first of all, it was the newly adult population and the elderly and other people who did not have mobile phones to buy mobile phones to achieve an increase, but with the full popularity of mobile phones, the elderly generally have mobile phones, and the use of smart phones has also appeared young age, these two markets are also saturated, it is difficult to provide enough sales.

Another increase comes from the lack of mobile phone performance caused by the expansion of the application, which makes many consumers have to replace the mobile phone in advance due to stuttering when the mobile phone has not been damaged. However, with the improvement of mobile phone performance and the use of optimized technology by manufacturers, in many application areas, mobile phones also appear to have excess performance, so that consumers lack the power to change machines, and this incremental market will inevitably shrink significantly.

The shrinkage of the incremental market also means that mobile phones have entered the stock market stage, and their sales mainly rely on mobile phone damage, and consumers naturally replace them. The extension of the replacement time will inevitably lead to a decrease in shipments. And this process, will last for a long time, it can even be said that unless the mobile phone industry has the production and application of disruptive technology, otherwise, the mobile phone market will enter a long stable sales stage after experiencing a period of decline, and it is difficult to reproduce the rapid growth of the scene.

Commonality two: the gap between TOP5 manufacturers has decreased

Even if we don't talk about the era when Huawei is thriving and even occupies nearly half of the market. In the past, there was also a large gap between top5 manufacturers, and the market share gap between the champion and the fifth place was 10% or even higher. But in Q1, we saw that the market share difference of TOP5 manufacturers was greatly reduced, and the data of IDC and Counterpoint showed that the gap between the market share between the champion and the fifth place was less than 5%, while the data of Canalys was only 7%.

This also means that the domestic market has not yet formed a leading manufacturer, the competition between TOP5 manufacturers, at this stage is basically evenly matched, and each manufacturer also has a group of its own fans. And this delicate market form, is often the beginning of a big war, from the existing market situation, the manufacturers of new products continue, the application speed of the difference in new technologies, but also rapidly accelerated, market activities are frequent, the speed of price reduction of new machines is accelerated, and even the mutual tearing on the Internet has become fierce. Maybe just this year, we can see more intense market battles, while glued to the state of competition, or are they broken again?

Commonality three: Strong growth in glory

In Q1, the biggest winner is undoubtedly Glory, IDC, Canalys, Counterpoint data show that Glory has achieved more than 200% year-on-year growth. On Canalys data, it shows that Honor topped with a market share of 20%.

Speaking of the recovery of glory, it is certainly impossible to avoid Huawei, after all, even if glory is flying alone, it inherits some of Huawei's genes, and even in product design, operation and publicity, there is also a Figure of Huawei, and from the perspective of buyers, it is also a fan of the Huawei era. Of course, we can't help but see the efforts of Glory after the single flight, there are bright spots at the product level, the rapid layout of the offline market, etc., all of which give Glory the strength to rise rapidly.

However, while the glory offline market is rising rapidly, the original advantage of the online market has shrunk to a certain extent, which is of course because the glory of the current stage of product focus is biased towards the offline market, but for glory to further enhance the market share, but it has brought great impact. The reason for the high year-on-year growth rate is more because of last year's Q1, Glory due to supply chain problems, the downturn in market occupation. However, in terms of shipments and month-on-month growth, Glory has entered a stable period.

As the only sub-brand glory in the TOP5 domestic brands, want to create two product lines that take into account both online and offline, natural defects, after the main brand market is stable, will Glory launch its own second brand? Worth looking forward to.

Commonality four: red rice is strong, millet is weak, and branches are strong and weak.

In the ranking, the three major market research companies seem to have only one consensus, that is, to put Millet in fifth place. Speaking of millet, there are always too many topics, in fact, to a certain extent, millet is like a serious student. It has the strongest sub-brand Redmi, but the Xiaomi sub-brand is the weakest among several major manufacturers; it can enter the top three or even the second in the international market, but it has been fifth in the domestic market for a long time; the voice on the Internet is huge, but the offline is slightly insufficient, and all of this may be closely related to the network genes on Xiaomi.

Although the position is low, but in detail, Xiaomi's performance is still unsatisfactory, its year-on-year decline is second only to Glory and Apple, and stronger than OV manufacturers, which also shows to a certain extent that Xiaomi's strategy to expand the offline market is still effective, at the same time, the market performance of the Redmi K series is also quite stable. However, while Redmi performed well, Xiaomi 11 was affected by the Wi-Fi incident, and everyone's concern about the snapdragon 8 fever had a certain impact on Xiaomi 12, which not only exacerbated the phenomenon of "red rice is strong, millet is weak", but also affects the market performance of xiaomi to a certain extent.

Commonality Five: Apples, Apples, Apples

Looking closely at the data of the three major market research companies, Apple's performance is very good, the market share and ranking have risen, Canalys data even believes that Apple has a 17% increase in shipments, and unlike the explosive growth brought about by Glory's low base last year, Apple is the growth obtained on a high base, which is even more rare. Moreover, the statistics of the three major companies are only based on shipments, if you look at it from another perspective, in terms of sales or profits, Apple will undoubtedly become the well-deserved first place, and its sales or profits, or close to or even more than the sum of other manufacturers.

And Apple's success, although there is an excellent performance of the iPhone 13, but the high-end no more opponents, is the root cause of Apple's invincibility. In the serious impact of the epidemic, many people's income is affected, the mobile phone replacement speed is reduced by the triple unfavorable situation, the high-priced iPhone can still run rampant, which means that in the case of post-epidemic economic recovery, Apple's sales may increase again, and from the existing situation, although Android manufacturers are at the high-end force, but at least from the existing situation, it is not yet able to threaten Apple.

Apple, Apple, Apple, is the mountain in front of domestic mobile phone manufacturers.