Tencent Senior Vice President Tanyuan Universe: It is too early to discuss the details, and it is expected to usher in qualitative changes in 2030

Photo: Liang Yuanhao

Source: 21tech

Author: Poplar

Editor: Zhang Weixian

Ma Xiaoyi, a member of Tencent's General Office and senior vice president, recently shared a discussion on the topic of meta-universe at the alumni meeting of the School of Management of Fudan University. As the helmsman of Tencent's game business, Ma Xiaoyi's thinking and judgment on the metaverse can also reflect the most cutting-edge exploration of China's Internet industry in the metacosm.

Ma Xiaoyi said that the metaverse is not a new topic, and the sudden heat up in the past two years is mainly because compared with the past, the technology of the entire industry has now reached a critical point. However, if you want to plan a roadmap for the metaverse, Ma Xiaoyi believes that it is too early to discuss the details of the metacosm.

"If you look at the short-term 1-3 years, I (the attitude towards the metaverse) is more pessimistic than most people, after looking at the long-term 10 years, I will be more optimistic than most people, I will think that the scene of these new technologies will bring great changes to the entire human society", in Ma Xiaoyi's view, some key technologies to achieve the metaverse will be released on a large scale between 2025 and 2027, and the real roll-out will be done until 2030.

technology

A major feature of the real metaverse is the immersion experience, around the "immersion", Ma Xiaoyi believes that there are two main directions: one is the human-computer interface and interaction mode, and the other is the experience of VR and other devices.

The current VR equipment can achieve 3D tracking in 6 dimensions, but in its view, it is more noteworthy to pay attention to the operation of the hand. "There is a consensus in the industry that a more natural interaction is to interact with the hand", but now VR devices also need to use the handle to enter information. Therefore, the next important technical direction is to capture the movement of fingers, in addition, it is also very important to capture expressions through facial recognition technology.

In terms of VR device display experience, Ma Xiaoyi saw some exciting technological developments. For example, silicon-based OLED displays with 4K resolution already on the production line will provide a high enough resolution for VR headsets.

In terms of brightness, the previous LCD screen is only about 400-500nit brightness, and the current silicon-based OLED display, to the future MicroOLED display, can provide higher brightness. "Now we can already see 2000nit, and from the roadmap for future development, we have seen 10000nit in research."

Ma Xiaoyi said that the above technologies can solve a very large bottleneck problem, that is, to improve the technology of the display unit and increase the user's immersion. And there are also some molded products on the market.

On this basis, there is another important development direction in the future, that is, folding optical path technology. "Previous VR devices were usually thick, heavy and large, and it was uncomfortable to wear on the head. In the future, we can see devices that fold the optical path, which can make the VR headset unit very thin, closer to the feeling of ordinary wearing glasses."

Ma Xiaoyi said that at present, the technology roadmap for human-machine interface has developed very clearly, in addition to the battery is subject to many restrictions, almost all other aspects have solutions, and are in progress, "which is also the reason why we have confidence in the development of metaversics and VR/AR."

In addition to hardware technology, software technology is equally important. For example, to make a more realistic interaction, you need a believable environment, a believable character, and a believable interaction, which requires a lot of tools to be able to provide a lot of tools to companies that do metaverse, VR/AR, so that they can make more believable world and character relationships.

content

In addition to technology, content is also an important support for the metaverse. Ma Xiaoyi admitted that he did not know what content the metaverse needed to contain, but at present, it should be divided into two dimensions: professional content and general content.

When a technology has not yet reached the point of importance, it is often just a relatively professional, dedicated application; and general-purpose classes, such as mobile phones, now have thousands of ways to use it. Ma Xiaoyi proposed that 2030 will be a baseline, until then, the metaverse will be a dedicated stage, after which it may have the opportunity to move towards a more general state.

The real metaverse should be a general state that integrates everyone's life into this virtual world, but this premise is that there needs to be enough content for users to be willing to live in it.

For the metaverse content, Ma Xiaoyi believes that it can be divided into three routes:

The first is the professional production of PGC. Companies such as Tencent produce movies, games, and TV series, which will be an important part of the content of the metaverse. At present, with the development of technology, some large-scale virtual world scenarios that were almost impossible to achieve in the past are also gradually being realized.

According to Ma Xiaoyi, Tencent and Epic Games have two projects in cooperation, one is to import the real world through AI, and the other is a virtual person project called "Siren". In these projects, new technologies have made large-scale production more efficient.

This is followed by UGC content. For this part of the content, Ma Xiaoyi and Roblox CEO David have had a lot of exchanges, and they all believe that the key to the success of UGC content is the principle of the community, transparency, and the need for strong centralized execution.

And this is not contrary to the outside world's perception of decentralization, Ma Xiaoyi said that the outside world said decentralization, should refer to the decentralization of capabilities, such as tools, capabilities, resources to users, so that everyone does not need a centralized platform, you can create their own content. But what supports these contents should be a continuous, principled, long-term stable platform.

Finally, there is the content of the combination of virtual and real. "The purpose of the metaverse and VR/AR is actually consistent with the previous efforts of the Internet and human society, and human beings have always wanted to break the limitations of physics, such as airplanes and cars, in order to eliminate the limitations of physical distance and improve the efficiency of large-scale collaboration." So in the long run, the metaverse will also think more about how to introduce more external real-world services and content, breaking physical boundaries."

Time

However, although all aspects of technology are rapidly developing, Ma Xiaoyi believes that the true popularization of the metaverse still needs time.

For example, the price problem, the above-mentioned 4K silicon-based OLED display, although the experience is very good, but the price of a display unit alone is equivalent to the current price of the Oculus Quest 2, and it will take a long time to make this price down.

For example, Ma Xiaoyi said that the first special equipment for home use was the game console released in 1977, the Atari 2600, which can benchmark the current Oculus Quest 2. The real popularity of home PCs came after the first version of Windows came out in 1985. As you can see, this process takes at least 6-10 years of development.

In addition, in terms of business model, Ma Xiaoyi said that the Internet existed in the 90s, but now the Internet companies that everyone is familiar with, such as Tencent and Google, were only established in 1998, and these companies really found a business model to support them, probably around 2004, and this process also took a lot of time.

Therefore, the development of the metaverse still needs many years of cultivation. It is gratifying that the current direction of cultivation is clear, and the potential is also very clear.

Ma Xiaoyi said, "In the last 20 years, the contribution of the entire Internet to human society, economy and technology is obvious to all, and I believe that in the next 20-30 years, the Internet experience with the metaverse as the core will bring greater impact to the entire society."

Editor: Lu Taoran