Image source: Visual China
The evaluation of Silicon Valley "Iron Man" Elon Musk has always been mixed, but Musk himself may not care. As he said in a Tweet post: "Even the worst critical speech, I hope to stay on Twitter, because that's what free speech means." ”
To combat the lack of freedom of speech on Twitter, the platform "influencer" Musk will pocket Twitter for $44 billion.
Now, Musk sits on Twitter, Tesla, spaceX, these three heavyweights are social media platforms, electric vehicles, commercial space field model.
Especially in the field of commercial aerospace, with SpaceX's unique secret technology: recycling and reuse (rocket vertical recycling and reuse technology), it is enough to make Musk stand alone and become the head of commercial aerospace.
The reason why it is a unique secret skill, that is, others can't do it, only this one technology. To say that social platforms and electric vehicles, for the time being, no matter whether other families do it well or not, it can always be done, but this SpaceX has several tricks, and no hero in the current martial arts has really learned.
However, there is always a question hanging over the heads of domestic commercial space track players: where is the domestic "Iron Man" and his SpaceX?
"This kind of team is really closed eyes"
"It's very clear which direction the domestic industry should go, and you can go how SpaceX goes." Wu Chao, vice president of sincere investment, told Titanium Media Venture Capitalists that in his view, benchmarking SpaceX seems to be an industry consensus.
Divide SpaceX's business into four components: 1. 2. Commercial rocket manufacturing and reuse; 2. Satellite communications; 4. Round trip between heaven and earth; Deep space exploration.
It can be seen that it is a model of the whole industry chain, of which commercial rocket manufacturing and satellite communications are the two most familiar and account for the largest proportion of SpaceX revenue.
SpaceX has formed a layout in the rocket manufacturing industry with the Falcon series (power vertical recovery rockets), ships (carrier ships), and starships (flight around the moon, Mars exploration) as the core.
Near the return of Shenzhou Thirteen, space has welcomed several new passengers. SpaceX manned Dragon spacecraft carrying a Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from Kennedy Space Center 39A launch pad in Florida and successfully landed on the International Space Station on April 8, EST, including three wealthy businessmen from the United States, Canada and Israel and a former NASA astronaut.
Then, on April 27, four astronauts boarded the manned Freedom spacecraft to the International Space Station for scientific expeditions, and the carrier rocket for the mission remained Falcon 9.
Only 20 days later, Falcon 9 twice transported manned spacecraft to the International Space Station, breaking the fastest reuse turnover record, while the previous record of two launches in 27 days was also set by Falcon 9, which surprised the efficiency of Falcon 9. But for Musk, who is committed to achieving the "flightization" of space travel, this will never be the final record.
At the 2022 Starship launch conference, Musk unveiled the latest "second-generation raptor engine", which is said to be enough to achieve high-frequency launches 3 times a day.
We often think about reducing costs and increasing efficiency, in addition to efficiency, all-round cost reduction is SpaceX's killer skill.
The total cost per launch of the Falcon 9 booster is $62 million, while reusing the booster could save SpaceX $37 million in manufacturing costs, or 60 percent of the total cost, and reusing the fairing could save $6 million, or 10 percent of the total cost.
The technology of one arrow and multiple stars has fundamentally reduced the number of rocket emissions and greatly reduced the cost. In January 2021, Falcon 9 was successfully launched with 143 satellites, breaking the human space record. For comparison, the mainland's highest record of multiple stars so far is that the Long March 8 launches 22 satellites at a time.
In addition, Musk also introduced at the starship launch: "The starship can send 100 to 150 tons of payload into orbit for only a few million dollars per flight, or even as low as $1 million." ”
If the orbital payload cost of a starship is calculated at $100/kg, compared to the actual payload cost of the space shuttle of $22,500/kg (2011), SpaceX reduces the cost by 99.5%.
"Pulling the utilization of funds to the limit, this kind of team is really closing its eyes." An investor sighed.
The Grand Voyage 3.0 era is not to be missed
Turning back to satellite communications, Musk aims to create a communications system that covers the whole world, surpassing all previous old systems.
In the 2021 Launch Plan submitted by SpaceX to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), it is shown that it will use "starships" to launch its second-generation starlink Gen 2, which explicitly deploys 29,996 satellites into 12 orbits between 328 and 614 kilometers in orbit and plans to launch 42,000 satellites by 2025, compared with just over 500 satellites on the mainland.
Zhang Zhiyong, founding partner of Yuanhang Capital, told Titanium Media Venture Capitalists that the satellite spectrum belongs to global resources, and radio frequency resources also adopt a "first-come, first-served" principle internationally. All satellite systems must be submitted to the ITU (International Telecommunication Union) before the frequency and orbit information of the satellite network, requiring operators to apply to the International Telecommunication Union for a low-orbit constellation and communication frequency band, in two years to launch 10% of the total number of satellites, 50% within 5 years, after 7 years the number of satellites will be applied for in full launch, if the construction of the entire constellation can not be completed within the specified time, the operator's application for the frequency band resources will be based on the number of launch satellites completion ratio, Restricted use. Therefore, "frequency preservation" is of great strategic significance.
The development of spaceflight has thus been described as the unmissable era of Grand Voyage 3.0.
In 2016, the state elevated the military-civilian integration of space industry to a national strategy, encouraging support and guiding private capital to participate in commercial space development. Since then, China's aerospace industry has changed from a behemoth closed in the system to a more open and competitive situation.
At present, the number of active commercial aerospace enterprises in China is about 180, many of which have received investment from well-known institutions.
Last year, SpaceX raised $1.85 billion for the whole year, while according to Tianyancha data, there were 37 commercial space financings in mainland China in 2021, totaling 6.45 billion yuan (about $990 million).
In the face of various gaps, can Chinese commercial space companies really benchmark SpaceX?
"Iron Man" can, "Iron Man" can't
In today's capital market, about 300 institutions have invested in commercial space tracks.
In Zhang Zhiyong's view, for some investors without aerospace background, if there is an analogous overseas reference, it can help better understand the product. From this point of view, it is understandable to find domestic companies to benchmark SpaceX.
"But the company is completely following spaceX's route, and I don't think so." Zhang Zhiyong explained that SpaceX is taking the whole industry chain model, from satellite manufacturing, rocket launch and delivery, constellation networking, constellation operation, data services all things are completed in their own ecology, I think this is impossible in China, if anyone follows this logic, it is impossible.
To put it simply, you both build satellites, play launches, but also engage in constellation operations, not to mention that the technical ability is not enough, first of all, the fund is a big problem, the second is that there are many other players in the market, doing the whole industry chain means monopoly, and the industry is the enemy, it is almost impossible to do.
Zhang Zhiyong said that at present, domestic aerospace we can see the situation of being divided into civilian, military and commercial aerospace, and the future is also based on the national team in the system, supplemented by private commercial aerospace.
Wu Chao also told titanium media venture capitalists that from many levels, the commercial aerospace industry has no advantages over the system, because the stability of the system is better, the scale is larger, the funds are more sufficient, the talent reserve is more, and China's aerospace has begun to develop from the 60s, and now has more than 60 years of history, while the development of commercial aerospace is less than 10 years.
Therefore, private enterprises and national teams form an industrial chain synergy between each other, which can develop benignly and orderly in China's aerospace ecology.
SpaceX is a good example to learn from, but it can't be copied. Becoming "Iron Man" is OK, but "Iron Man" is not.
There are also some institutions whose investment teams have done very good homework training, have their own cognition and understanding of the domestic aerospace industry, and carry out targeted investment ecology layout based on the research of the industry and industrial chain, such institutions have a very clear investment logic and investment determination.
So, how should domestic commercial aerospace companies find the technical route and their own positioning?
The cost of spaceflight in the traditional class is very high, which is far from acceptable for commercial spaceflight. Commercial spaceflight is to solve the seeming paradox of "high reliability, low cost", otherwise there is no chance.
Wu Chao told Titanium Media Venture Capitalists that clarifying the technical path is the top priority of the company's development, taking recyclable rocket technology as an example, the short-term requirements for launch success rates in the system are higher than the cost, but in the long run, the cost has to be put in an increasingly heavy priority. In the process of transformation, if commercial space companies can seize the time window and give priority to recyclable rocket technology, it will become one of the highest links in the value chain of China's aerospace development.
Taking Deep Blue Aerospace as an example, its main business is the development of vertical recovery carrier rockets and round-trip transportation services between heaven and earth, and it is the first private enterprise in China to complete the vertical recovery test of VTVL in the 100-meter class, and it is expected to realize the recovery of liquid rockets into orbit in 2024. In the future, it is expected that the cost of rocket launch can be reduced to one-half to one-tenth of the existing price, and once the test is successful, it can make up for the shortcomings of the mainland in the normalization of the launch of vertical recovery rockets, and solve the pain points of China's aerospace with stars and arrows, more stars and fewer arrows, and cheap stars and expensive arrows.
Zhang Zhiyong believes that when choosing a technical route and business model, enterprises must be highly matched with industrial needs and their own strategic direction. This is also the reason why Yuanhang Capital chose to invest in micro-nano starry sky, galaxy power, aerospace driving star, cloud remote aerospace, and nine days of song.
For example, when investing in micro-nano starry sky, micro-nano firmly do a good job of satellites, do low-cost satellites, make satellites more reliable, do not grab other people's cake, and focus on their own products to the extreme. Galaxy Power insists on choosing liquid oxygen kerosene instead of liquid methane, which most investors are very buy-in. This is not to say that liquid oxygen methane is not good, but liquid oxygen kerosene is the best choice to meet our current needs in terms of safety and technical maturity. Liquid methane is only necessary when we have the need for interstellar voyages and Mars colonization.
"Don't think of commercial spaceflight as a science"
In the field of investment, everyone shows a very polarized attitude towards commercial spaceflight, on the one hand, everyone has great doubts about it, thinking that the space industry should not be done by private enterprises, so does it mean that private capital should not invest in commercial spaceflight?
As an investor in the era of hard technology, you will have such doubts, and you can imagine how the whole society will perceive this. The total financing of the entire commercial space in 2021 is 6.45 billion yuan, which is frankly a very small number.
From another point of view, taking shared bicycles as an example, Ofo has carried out 12 rounds of financing and received at least $2 billion in capital, and Mobike has conducted 8 rounds of financing and received at least $1.5 billion in capital, and the capital investment of Green Orange, Harrow and so on has not been calculated. The total financing of the shared bicycle industry as a whole is also conservatively estimated to be more than 30 billion, almost five times the annual financing of commercial space tracks.
Zhang Zhiyong said bluntly that he has been thinking, if we spend this 30 billion yuan on excellent commercial aerospace talents, what kind of value can it produce? Although the two are one to C and one to B, the number of users is not the same, but for commercial aerospace enterprises, as the crown and pearl of high-tech manufacturing, it is more necessary to use their own actions, engineering experience, technology research and development, and products to stimulate demand, drive the development of the entire industrial manufacturing industry, and use reality to prove that the commercial value and social value of commercial aerospace are more worthy of venture capital and industrial capital investment.
On the other hand, with the gradual prominence of the value of commercial aerospace, some investors have taken commercial aerospace as a science, especially in the United States VC institutions, commercial aerospace has become a very important investment direction after the Internet, thinking that if they do not invest, they are not on the trend.
In fact, commercial aerospace is a long-term, technology-intensive, capital-intensive, high-risk, high-threshold, high-yield industry. First it is limited by the laws of physics, and then it takes time to accumulate. What kind of models a team has done before, what kind of R&D experience and accumulation, what kind of professional background, what kind of science and engineering training has been obtained, the complementarity between teams, mutual trust, the relationship between values and synergy, and the stability of the team? All of this determines how far the company can go in the future, not that it can be smashed out only by money.
Those institutions that choose to enter this track are not based on the recognition of the industry and professional accumulation, but think that commercial aerospace is cool, very tall, and have very good stories to tell in the capital market, and they are very tolerant of being fooled by some PPT companies, and they may taste very big evil consequences today or in the future.
Zhang Zhiyong then added: "But I think most astronauts and most of the investment institutions that enter commercial space are still in awe of commercial space, even with a mission." ”
"Can you imagine? Galaxy Power has been a company with a valuation of more than 10 billion today, but several founders will still choose the cheapest flights on business trips, stay in hotels or two or three hundred economic hotels, and even sometimes go to the launch site to do experiments, in order to save one night accommodation, choose to leave at night, and start working during the day. Zhang Zhiyong said.
"I think these entrepreneurs are really very ambitious, very idealistic, very emotional, very mission-minded, and at the same time very simple, you can see the hope for China's future from them." 」
(This article was first published by Titanium Media Venture Capitalist, author |.) Zhang Yinan)