Affected by the lack of revolutionary functional stimuli and the epidemic, domestic smartphone sales have continued to decline. According to the analysis report on the operation of the domestic mobile phone market released by the Academy of Information and Communications Technology, from January to February this year, the shipment of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 47.886 million units, down 22.6% year-on-year. Among them, february shipments reached 14.864 million units, down 31.7% year-on-year, and domestic brand mobile phone shipments were 12.783 million units, down 34.7% year-on-year.
Lack of innovative breakthroughs
Mobile phone manufacturer inner roll
Recently, topics such as "how long have you not changed your mobile phone" and "why young people are reluctant to change mobile phones" have repeatedly rushed to the hot search, and the back of the topic reflects the nightmare of the smart phone industry: with the maturity of smart phone technology, in recent years, there has been no generational innovation of application scenarios and functions, and it is impossible to stimulate the enthusiasm of young people to change machines. Under the above hot search topic, a number of young people said that their mobile phones have been used for three or four years, and the reason for not changing is that mobile phones are selling more and more expensive, and the second is that mobile phones have no transformative innovation, only make some small adjustments in function, and cannot stimulate their shopping desire at all.
Studies and data from a number of institutions also provide corroboration. According to data released by industry analysis company Counterpoint, the average replacement cycle of users has exceeded 31 months. Market research firm Strategy Analytics said that the average replacement cycle of Chinese users is 28 months.
Major mobile phone manufacturers have to do everything in their power to develop new products and new features to attract people. On the evening of April 11, vivo X Fold folding screen mobile phone opened omni-channel pre-sale, so far, the five major domestic mobile phone manufacturers Huawei, Glory, Millet, OPPO, vivo, have become players in the folding screen mobile phone market. This is the major mobile phone manufacturers in order to cope with the continuous rolling, fierce competition in the smart phone market, aiming at the new focus of competition track - folding screen mobile phone, but also the domestic mobile phone hopes to compete with Apple in the high-end market products.
According to IDC, a data research agency, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones reached 7.1 million in 2021, an increase of 264.3% year-on-year; of which the market size of China's folding screen mobile phones reached 1.5 million. It is expected that by 2025, global folding screen mobile phone shipments will reach 27.6 million units, with a compound growth rate of 69.9% from 2020 to 2025. From the perspective of the e-commerce platform, the folding screen mobile phone seems to be "difficult to find", and several brands of folding screen mobile phones are in a state of shortage.
However, for domestic folding screen mobile phones, it will be difficult to start for a while and a half. Mr. He, a senior mobile phone industry person, said in an interview with reporters that on the one hand, Samsung entered the folding screen market relatively early, occupying an absolute king position, as of the end of 2021, the cumulative shipment of global folding screen smart phones is 11.5 million, and Samsung has shipped more than 10 million units, accounting for 87% of the sales of folding screen mobile phones. On the other hand, the global chip shortage problem has not been completely solved, and there are technical difficulties in the hinge design and screen of folding screen mobile phones, or will affect the shipment of folding screen mobile phones to a certain extent. In addition, the current folding screen mobile phone pricing from a few thousand yuan to tens of thousands of yuan, is not close to the people, only with the maturity of technology, cost reduction is easy to open the sales space.
In the face of the shrinking market, smartphone manufacturers are combining their brand tone, new changes in the supply chain and potential new needs of consumers, each with the intention of opening up the situation. However, unless there is a major innovation in research and development, it is difficult to impress consumers by relying on "micro-innovation" alone.
Order reduction
The profit of the industrial chain declined
"The repeated epidemics have affected the economy and all walks of life, affecting people's consumption. Mobile phone orders decreased, resulting in intensified competition and fierce price wars, while the cost of production, service research and development, supply chain and other aspects of the cost is rising, resulting in a decline in profits. "As a supporting supplier of the mobile phone industry chain, Mr. Zeng has been more annoyed recently, and he has obviously felt that the market has been cold since the Qingming Festival, there are no new orders, and no proofing has been received."
On April 11, Sunny Optics released March shipment data showing that mobile phone lens shipments fell by 8.1% year-on-year, and the cumulative shipments in the first quarter were 360.6 million pieces, down 11.6% year-on-year.
Sluggish demand superimposed on rising costs, and this pressure is now difficult to pass on to consumers through price increases, mobile phone manufacturers began to reduce market expectations and began to cut mobile phone supply chain orders, and mobile phone products to reduce specifications and reduce configuration operations, which has a far-reaching impact on the entire industry chain.
Recently, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingxi said that major Android mobile phone brands have cut orders, accounting for 20% of this year's shipment plan. He also lowered his forecast for 2022 shipments of the new iPhone SE, expecting shipments to be reduced to 15 million to 20 million units, compared with 25 million to 30 million units. It is also reported that OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi Group have lowered their mobile phone order expectations by 10% in the second quarter of this year.
In this context, the pressure on related companies in the industrial chain is not small, which can also be seen from the stock price performance of listed companies. Since the beginning of this year, the stock prices of Xiaomi Group, Sunny Optics, Luxshare Precision and other companies have fallen by more than 30%.
A person in charge of a medium-sized automation equipment supplier in South China also said that the profit of the mobile phone industry chain is very small, and he has rarely received orders from the industry in recent years.
Multiple shocks
Physical stores continue to shrink
"Business is a lot worse, and sometimes you can't sell a single phone a day." A mobile phone shop owner in Shenzhen's Bao'an District said that it is obvious that the consumer's replacement cycle has become longer, and since the epidemic, sales have dropped by 20 to 30%.
Shenzhen Huaqiang North was once the largest mobile phone trading center in Asia, the major shopping malls are overcrowded, here was once "a shop is difficult to find", and even the price of shops exceeded 300,000 yuan per square meter, and the transfer fee of shops was as high as more than 1 million yuan. Mr. Li from Hunan came to Huaqiang North in 1998 to engage in the business of second-hand mobile phone trading, witnessed the prosperity of Huaqiang North, and is now experiencing the loneliness of Huaqiang North.
Mr. Li has moved many shops, about 1 square meter of glass counter, good location he once rented thirty or forty thousand yuan a month, in 2016 he fixed rent in a market, he remembered that the rent at that time was about 9,000 yuan, and then with the downturn in the mobile phone industry, the rent fell all the way, now only 2,000 yuan, even so, the shop is still mostly empty. "After the epidemic this year, the market was ready to implement single and double number restrictions on the shop, everyone said that there was no need, no limit number and no one came, we now opened the door at 1 p.m., until 3 or 4 o'clock The market was not a little crowded, and then there was no one at 5 o'clock." No one really bought it. He told reporters that the second-hand mobile phone business is difficult to do, in addition to the decline in consumer demand caused by the epidemic, the decline in industry prosperity, there is also a major reason for the impact of e-commerce, and now peers have changed careers, he is also actively looking for opportunities.
Affected by the two-way impact of e-commerce and brand mobile phone stores, as well as the continuous reduction of traffic under the epidemic, the living space of third-party mobile phone physical stores has been further reduced.
In addition to individual small stores, large brands such as Huawei are also shrinking the scale of offline stores. According to huawei's official website, as of March 18, 2022, the number of Huawei's offline stores was 9394, a decrease of 209 from the previous month, of which Huawei HES & HES-H, HESR, and Fortress stores were 2069, 2777, and 4544, respectively, a decrease of 62, 107, and 41 from the previous month, and the scale of offline retail channels gradually contracted.
Editor: Ye Shujun
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