01 High-frequency indicator tracking
This week (January 21 to January 27), a total of 55 high-frequency indicators were updated in the fixed income fundamental monitoring system of SDIC Securities. We calculated the month-on-month growth of 42 of these indicators, and the results showed that, overall, the number of "positive" and "negative" indicators was 25 and 17 respectively. Among them, the "good" is mainly reflected in the crude steel output, the transaction area of commercial housing, the transaction area of land, the subway passenger volume, and the price of most industrial products, etc., and the "negative" is mainly reflected in coal consumption, commodity housing prices, China's export container freight index, and the prices of most agricultural products.
02 Top 10 Coincident Indicators This week (January 21 to January 27), the signals released by the top 10 coincident indicators of interest rates are mainly "positive", accounting for 6/10, and the changes from last week are: the U.S. dollar index sent a "positive" signal. Specifically: (1) excavator sales year-on-year (6MMA) was -30.0%, lower than the previous value of -26.9%, the attribute was "good" ;(2) cement prices were -19.6% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of -23.1%, the attribute was "negative" ;(3) the crude steel output of key enterprises was 0.5% year-on-year (6MMA), lower than the previous value of 1.4%, and the attribute was "good" ;(4) the land transfer income was -17.9% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of -20.5%, and the attribute was "negative"; (5) Iron ore port inventory was 119 million tons, higher than the previous value of 115 million tons, and the attribute was "negative" ;(6) PMI was -1.4% year-on-year, higher than the previous value of -3.4%, and the attribute was "negative" ;(7) the credit cycle was 0.1%, higher than the previous value of -0.1%, and the attribute was "positive" ;(8) bill financing was 13.2 trillion, higher than the previous value of 12.8 trillion, and the attribute was "positive" ;(9) the US dollar index was 102.8, higher than the previous value of 102.6, and the attribute was "positive"; (10) The copper-gold ratio is 18.7, lower than the previous value of 18.9, and the attribute is "good".
Analysts of this report
尹睿哲 SAC执业证书编号：S1450523120003
刘 冬 SAC执业证书编号：S1450523120006
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