The author | Wang Yunpeng
Produced | automotive grand view
For a long time, there has been a voice in the industry that "plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) are a transitional product from the fuel era to the era of pure electricity" voice.
However, from the current actual situation, due to the increasingly obvious advantages of PHEV products, it also has a tendency to change from "transition" to "mainstream".
This can also be confirmed by the reaction of the market. According to data released by the China Automobile Association, the wholesale volume of new energy passenger cars in China from January to March this year was 1.190 million units, an increase of 145.4% year-on-year. Among them, sales in March were 455,000 units, an increase of 122.4% year-on-year. Focusing on THE PHEV model, sales in March were 84,000 units, up 151.3% year-on-year, ahead of 116.8% of pure electric vehicles.
It is worth mentioning that the year-on-year growth rate of PHEV models this year is higher than that of pure electric is not only in March. According to public data, in the first two months of this year, the production and sales of PHEV vehicles reached 168,000 and 160,000 units, respectively, an increase of 2.8 times and 2.5 times year-on-year, and the growth rate of production and sales was also significantly ahead of pure electric vehicles.
Judging from the current market performance, the PHEV model entering 2022 is not only ushering in a new explosive period, but also has a great trend of changing from "transition" to "mainstream".
Grab the limelight of pure electric vehicles
"In 2022, the share of domestic PHEV models in the total sales of new energy vehicles may not be less than 25%, and the annual sales are expected to reach more than 1 million vehicles." CITIC Securities mentioned in the research report.
For the rest of this year, bydir, Geely, Chery, Great Wall and other mainstream independent brands will continue to launch more PHEV models. Among them, Chery said that the brand's Wuhu Ecotek Powertrain Company is promoting the construction of a hybrid transmission (DHT) project for new energy vehicles. It is planned to build a new assembly test line in the existing plant, which will be built in three phases, and will mainly produce hybrid transmissions for new energy vehicles after completion, with a production capacity of 75,000 units.
In addition, from the perspective of the consumer side, with the popularity of pure electric vehicles, imperfect supporting facilities and imperfect power battery material systems, pure electric vehicles can not completely replace traditional fuel vehicles. Coupled with the "charging difficulty" of pure electric vehicles in the peak travel of holidays in recent years, the frequent occurrence of problems such as sharp reduction in winter battery life, so that the use of pure electric vehicles is very limited. This has also prompted a large number of potential consumers of new energy with complex car use scenarios to turn to plug-in hybrid vehicles.
It is worth mentioning that the abundance of PHEV models and the outbreak of sales are inseparable from the breakthroughs of car companies in related core technologies.
"PhEV model sales have increased significantly, the speed of popularization has accelerated significantly, and one of the most important points is that the relevant domestic car companies have mastered the independent core technology, so that the cost advantage can be reflected, with stronger market competitiveness, and it is easier to be accepted by consumers." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, said in an interview with the media.
In fact, this is also true. Since 2020, independent brands including BYD, Great Wall, Chery, Great Wall and Geely have launched their own hybrid core technologies. Although the hybrid technology of the above-mentioned car companies is different, it can make a qualitative leap in pure electric continuation, comprehensive fuel consumption and power performance.
Take BYD's DM-i, for example. The system is equipped with a 1.5L Atkinson cycle engine for Xiaoyun plug and mix, with an ultra-high thermal efficiency value of 43.04%, and with BYD's blade battery and motor, it can systematically crack the user's driving anxiety, charging anxiety and safety anxiety.
Simply put, PHEV models can use electricity for short distances and refuel for long distances, without the trouble of queuing for charging and "powering down" pure electric models in the northern winter. Moreover, it also has the advantage of reducing carbon emissions, and the price of new cars is mostly lower than that of pure electric models, so it is easier to open up sales.
At the same time, in the view of many people in the industry, under the background of the current price increase in the price of automotive raw materials, the price increase of fuel, the price increase of pure electric vehicle models, and the decline of new energy subsidies, the multi-faceted advantages of PHEV models are also further highlighted.
"Consumer choice and market performance are effective ways to test the value of products, and the rapid growth of sales in the PHEV model market shows that it has unique technical strengths and unique advantages in the market." Xue Xu, secretary general of the Marketing Expert Committee of the China Market Society (Automotive), said.
Is it a short-term outburst or a long-term positive?
Since the revolution of PHEV on fuel vehicles is not complete compared to pure electric vehicles, this technical route has been regarded as a new energy solution for "riding the wall" from the beginning.
Therefore, in the sales of high-end electric vehicles represented by Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng, etc., the sales of high-end electric vehicles represented by the Great Wall Euler and Hongguang MINI, when the country continues to expand its territory, the capital market is not optimistic about PHEV technology, and there are not many car companies that devote themselves to research and development of this technical route.
However, as the philosophical law of "the development of any trend is not smooth sailing", the shortcomings of pure electric vehicle range and charging time cannot be effectively solved in a short period of time, and the significance of PHEV models as a connection between fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles has begun to become more and more prominent.
So, the rapid growth of PHEV model sales this year, is it a short-term outbreak, or a long-term positive?
Before answering this question, we might as well stretch the timeline to 2021. According to public data, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China in 2021 were 2.989 million units, of which 2.444 million were pure electric vehicles, an increase of 168.6% year-on-year; the sales of PHEV models, including range extenders, were 545,000 units, an increase of 171.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than that of pure electric vehicles.
Especially in the second half of 2021, except for September, which was affected by Tesla's end-of-quarter delivery momentum, in the remaining five months, the year-on-year growth rate of PHEV model sales was significantly higher than that of pure electric vehicle sales. In terms of sales share, by November 2021, the proportion of PHEV model sales has increased to 19.9%.
In other words, under the leadership of the explosive models, the 2021 PHEV model not only shows good competitiveness, but also initially shows strong potential.
In addition, the answer to the above questions can also be found at the macro policy level. Since 2020, the relevant policies issued by the state include the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0", etc., and put forward "plug-in hybrid (including range extender) vehicles and pure electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles as 'three vertical' deployment" "By 2035, the technical level of independent brand pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle products is synchronized with the international community, and new energy vehicles account for more than 50% of total vehicle sales" The goal.
Simply put, a series of policies that have been introduced have established the status and development prospects of PHEV models, and dispelled the doubts and concerns of car companies and consumers.
"PHEV models are promising, in the price range of 100,000-200,000 yuan, users require long mileage, good performance, low cost, PHEV models can better meet these requirements of consumers than pure electric models." Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that before 2035, PHEV technology has great market potential.
At the same time, other industry insiders also said that from the landing of a number of favorable policies, independent brands continue to master the core technology, hot sales of market terminals, etc., the short-term outbreak of PHEV models is a fact, and the long-term benefits are worth looking forward to. ”
Be wary of expecting too much to stifle PHEV
Although the current development momentum has a tendency to crush pure electric, this does not mean that the PHEV model is "perfect".
From the perspective of macro trend, whether it is the previously launched double integration policy, the four-stage energy consumption limit indicator, or the National VI emission standards and "double carbon target" goals proposed in the past two years... The landing of a series of policies and so on confirms that green has become the "background of the times" for the development of the automotive industry. In other words, on the track of new energy, electrification is the ultimate goal, and PHEV models are still unable to escape the fate of "transition".
In addition, from the actual situation at present, THE PHEV model is not without problems. For example, hybrids require the motor, engine and internal combustion engine to work together to achieve optimal conditions, and if the cooperation is not smooth, problems will arise, and the system design ability and simulation ability of the product are highly demanding. Specifically, in a low-power state, the powertrain needs to provide torque to both the engine and the motor, and once the torque is insufficient, it will cause problems such as jitter in the vehicle.
At the same time, "due to the inconvenience of charging, the vehicle is basically running in long-term feed", many consumers reflect that not only the energy-saving effect is relatively limited, but also worried that it will cause the battery to be out of sync with the life of the whole vehicle.
"At present, the PHEV powertrain such as multi-gear DHT transmissions or systems is too complex compared to the internal combustion engine system and the pure electric system, which is contrary to the development trend of simplification and directization of the power system, which may bring inconvenience to future maintenance." Some insiders said.
In this regard, many people in the industry said that in the face of the current hot market and high expectations, how to make consumers clearly realize: "Plug-in hybrid models are still new energy vehicles, and they also need to be charged and refueled, which is not what many consumers think that can save fuel without charging." ”
After consumers fully understand the characteristics of PHEV models, the market may also be more rational and healthy, which will be of great benefit to the development of PHEV models and pure electric vehicles.