MCU chip 2022, shrouded in fog.
MCU, the English abbreviation of the micro-control unit, also known as the microcontroller, is to reduce the frequency and specifications of the CPU appropriately, and the memory, counter, USB, A/D conversion, UART, PLC, DMA and other peripheral interfaces and even LCD drive circuits are integrated on a single chip to form a chip-level computer.
At present, the MCU is in a strange state, and some manufacturers have issued price increase letters to inform the MCU that they will be out of stock for a long time, while the market has a price reduction.
So, the MCU chip, is it a virtual fire or a real fire?
High-end is still in short supply
Although MCU chips are important, they cannot be compared with star chips such as CPUs and GPUs, so they have not been visible for a long time, and there will be no variables until 2020.
At that time, the global epidemic flooded, resulting in a decline in MCU production capacity, while new energy vehicles were popular, and the demand for MCUs did not fall but rose.
In fact, the MCU is an important part of the automotive electronic control unit (ECU), also known as the "brain" of the car, through the on-board sensor information, bus data collection and interaction to determine the vehicle state, and combined with the driver's intentions, with the help of the execution system to control the car.
According to data from CITIC Securities, MCUs are widely used in cars, with an average of more than 70 MCUs per traditional car and more than 300 smart cars.
As a result, automotive-grade MCUs are showing rapid growth.
According to data from IC Insights, global automotive grade MCU sales in 2020 will be nearly $6.5 billion, accounting for more than 40% of MCU's overall sales, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.7% in the future.
As a result, stock-out has become the key word in the industry.
In December 2020, the price of the vehicle-grade MCU began to rise, and by the first quarter of 2021, the price increase intensified, and the market appeared a situation where it was difficult to find a core.
After this, car companies finally realized the problem, took precautions to grab chips and hoarded goods, further aggravated the capacity crisis, and then superimposed MCU production capacity to the car level, which eventually led to chaos in the global MCU market.
An informed source revealed to the media: "The upstream fab and the downstream packaging and testing plant are all rising in price, and the original factory cannot do anything, because the cost we get is also rising." If the price is not adjusted properly, we will lose money. ”
At present, there is a structural imbalance in the global MCU market, and there is still a shortage of some high-end MCUs, but there is no shortage of low-end MCUs.
In fact, the mainstream MCU process is 8-bit, 16-bit, 32-bit, of which 8 are mostly used for consumer grade, 32 bits are mostly used for vehicle specification grade, mainly concentrated in body control, dashboard, driver assistance system and so on.
According to public information, the factory price of 32-bit automotive MCUs rose by 13% in 2021, and the current delivery cycle of Infineon's TC397 is 43 weeks, and the quotation is as high as nearly 1,000 yuan, while the price of NXP's FS32K144HAT0MLHT returns to double digits, and in 2021, it has been speculated to a high price of three or four hundred.
Some insiders said: "Now the shortage is the middle and lower reaches of the small brands, some of the head of the brand will not be out of stock at all, first, the big brand is often in the key position of the industry value chain, all manufacturers want to do business with such enterprises, to keep the big brand signboard." Second, big brands often give overseas suppliers enough profits, and the shipments of large brands are generally very large, and these profits are worth it for the original chip factory. ”
Domestic companies are on the rise
At present, the mainland MCU market is dominated by European and American companies, Renesas, NXP and Infineon are the three giants of the global MCU, but domestic MCU companies are also rising.
Gigabit Innovation: The main business of GigaDevice Innovation is Nor Flash, MCU and sensor, of which Nor Flash is the first major business, and MCU is one of the main players of 32-bit MCU in China.
According to public information, GigaDev's innovative MCU products are mainly ARM Cortex-M series, MCU has formed a product matrix of nearly 27 series and more than 360 chips, the product process covers 40nm ~ 110nm, the latest vehicle grade MCU has been tapeout within the year, and is expected to achieve mass production in mid-2022.
Minsheng Securities said: "Since 2021, the market demand for various MCU segments such as industry, automobiles, home appliances, and consumers has remained strong, and the current proportion of revenue in the company's industrial field has been the same as that of the consumer field, and the product structure has been continuously optimized." ”
In 2021, Gigabit Innovation's operating income of 8.51 billion yuan increased by 89.3% year-on-year, and its net profit of 2.34 billion yuan increased by 165.3% year-on-year; from January to February 2022, the operating income of 1.35 billion yuan increased by 49.2% year-on-year, making a good start.
In addition, the major shareholder Zhu Yiming previously announced the reduction of shares, and now promised not to reduce his holdings in the next 12 months, trying to restore the confidence of the market.
Zhongying Electronics: Zhongying Electronics is a domestic leader in the field of small household applianceS MCUs, and in recent years, it has seized the opportunity of domestic substitution, made breakthroughs in the field of frequency conversion such as refrigerators and air conditioners, and can already play games with well-known foreign companies such as Renesas and Cypress.
In 2021, the operating income of 1.494 billion yuan increased by 47.58% year-on-year, and the net profit of 371 million yuan increased by 77.00% year-on-year; it is expected to achieve a net profit of 101 million yuan to 112 million yuan in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 50% to 65% year-on-year.
It should be noted that Zhongying Electronics also has a layout in the field of new energy.
Pacific Securities said: "In electric bicycles, energy storage and other power terminals, lithium battery management chips are more and more widely used, bringing considerable incremental flexibility to the overall market. For the company, with the continuous strengthening of the voice of domestic brands, the company is expected to continue to increase the market share of lithium battery management chips in consumer electronics, laptops and power fields. ”
Espressif Systems: Espressif Systems is a company in the field of WiFi MCUs, with a total sales volume of 150 million chips in 2021, if included in the module, the actual total number of chip sales is 230 million, the total number of cumulative shipments of chips has reached 700 million, the annual operating income of 1.39 billion yuan increased by 66.8% year-on-year, and the net profit of 200 million yuan increased by 90.7% year-on-year.
Capital Securities said: "The company is gradually expanding the wireless SoC field in the direction of 'processing + connecting', covering chip design technologies including AI, RISC-V MCUs, Wi-Fi 6, Bluetooth LE, Thread/Zigbee and so on. In addition to chip design, the company also continues to invest in software technology, focusing on the core of AIoT, covering toolchains, compilers, operating systems, application frameworks, AI algorithms, cloud products, APP, etc., to achieve a closed loop of software and hardware integration solutions in the AIoT field. ”
It should be noted that the recent funds are more favorable to cyclical stocks, and the technology stocks are more indifferent, and although the fundamentals of Gigabit Innovation, Zhongying Electronics, and Espressif Technology are good, it is difficult to have performance in a short period of time, and the possibility of buying quilt covers cannot be ruled out.
This article represents only personal views and has nothing to do with this newspaper. The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article is for reference only, the actual profit and loss is at your own risk.
Editor| Zhang Yi
Audit | Wu Xin