【Text/Observer Network Lv Dong】
Since the beginning of the year, the domestic mobile phone market has continued to be sluggish.
Third-party agency data show that in the first two months of this year, the Chinese market mobile phone shipments were 47.886 million units, an overall year-on-year decline of 22.6%, 5G mobile phone shipments also rarely declined, down 11% year-on-year. In February, xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and other shipments fell sharply year-on-year.
At the same time, mobile phone market analyst Guo Mingxi has also recently released news, saying that Apple's first new machine this year, the iPhone SE, is sluggish, and its estimated annual shipments have been cut by 10 million units; in the Android camp, Guo Mingxi revealed that China's major Android mobile phone brands have cut about 170 million orders this year, accounting for 20% of the original 2022 shipment plan.
In response to the reasons for the market downturn, some mobile phone industry analysts told the observer network that in the short term, after the Spring Festival, the epidemic situation in many parts of the country has recurred, which has brought more adverse effects to the resumption of work and production of domestic mobile phone manufacturers, which is one of the main reasons for the decline in the overall performance of mobile phones in February. In the long run, the cold global economic environment and the weakening frequency of mobile phone users are the reasons for the market downturn.
"The smartphone industry can not see the bright light at the end of the tunnel", HSBC Securities recently pointed out that the global economy is full of uncertainty, Chinese mainland has been hit by the epidemic, and decided to reduce the global smartphone shipment estimates for 2022 and 2023 by 5%. Fubon Investment Advisory expects global smartphone shipments to decline by 3% year-on-year in 2022.
Apple CEO Tim Cook video screenshot
Apple's first new opportunity in 2022 is cold
The iPhone SE is Apple's first phone released in 2022 and the first iPhone model to feature 5G. However, Apple's product line, which has been updated for the first time since 2020, is not optimistic about the market.
On April 13, Guo Mingxi, an analyst at Tianfeng International who has long followed Apple, bluntly said on his personal social media that "the demand for the new iPhone SE is sluggish." More than half a month ago, he said he cut his 2022 shipment estimates to 15-20 million (previously 25-30 million) due to lower-than-expected demand for the new iPhone SE.
Screenshot of Guo Mingji's Twitter
Wu Yiwen, senior analyst at Strategy Analytics, a third-party market research agency, said in an interview with Observer Network that the upgrade of the new generation of iPhone SE is mainly reflected in the A15 chip and support for 5G. Compared with the previous generation, the product strength has been greatly improved. From the pricing point of view, the iPhone SE has a certain overlap with the high-end products of domestic manufacturers. However, compared with domestic Android phones in the same price range, the iPhone SE has limited competitiveness in hardware, especially in terms of screen, image, storage and so on.
"The Apple ecosystem and small-screen phones are attractive to some users, but the iPhone SE has limited impact on the overall market. In addition, the rising pricing of the iPhone SE, the risk of component shortages, and Apple's decision to suspend the sale of iPhone products in Russia have put pressure on the shipments of new products this year. She added.
The leak in the house coincided with overnight rain, and while the demand was sluggish, the supply side was also suffering from the impact of the epidemic.
On April 12, Taiwan's consumer electronics foundry Pegatron issued a statement saying that due to the impact of the epidemic, the company's factories in Shanghai and Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, have stopped production, and when to resume work will wait for the local government to notify. The world's second-largest electronic foundry company undertakes about 30% of the foundry of iPhones. Nikkei said that if the long-term suspension of production, it may affect Apple's performance.
Screenshot of the Nikkei Asian Review report
However, Guo Mingxi said on the same day that despite the impact of the epidemic, the new iPhone SE, which is exclusively oem by Pegatron, is still in "inventory" in Apple's online stores in many countries, which means that the current inventory can still meet the sluggish demand. Conversely, the delivery time of the high-end MacBook Pro (taiwanese company Quanta is the sole supplier) that has been in high demand since its launch has been extended by about 3-5 weeks after the shutdown of Quanta's Shanghai factory.
Affected by relevant information, Apple supply chain concept stocks such as Luxshare Precision, Lens Technology, Goertek, and Xinwei Communications have recently performed in the downturn.
"No light at the end of the tunnel"
While the new iPhone SE is cold, the Android camp is not optimistic. On April 12, Taiwan's "Business Times" reported that the news of smart phone orders is intensifying, following Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse Securities and other downgraded global smartphone shipment forecasts, HSBC Securities, Fubon Investment Advisory and other large research institutions have recently put forward similar views, that the demand for smart phone terminals continues to disappoint the market, the future market is still facing challenges.
Screenshot of Taiwan media report
According to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the Chinese market shipments in February were only 14.864 million units, down 31.7% year-on-year, the lowest value in more than a year. In the first two months of this year, mobile phone shipments in the Chinese market were 47.886 million units, down 22.6% year-on-year, and 5G mobile phone shipments also rarely declined, down 11% year-on-year.
Screenshot of the report of the Chinese Academy of Information and Communications Technology
Among the major players, OPPO suffered the heaviest losses.
According to the data released by market research agency CINNO Research, OPPO (excluding realme) sales in February this year were only 4 million units, down 45.7% year-on-year, close to waist cut; vivo (excluding iQOO) and xiaomi also fell by 38.6% and 20% year-on-year, respectively, and Apple fell less, only 4%. Among the top five mobile phone manufacturers, only the same period last year has not fully returned to the glory of the market, achieving substantial year-on-year growth.
"Due to the macro environment, mobile phone manufacturers began to reduce market expectations and began to cut orders in the mobile phone supply chain, and lowered the specifications and configuration of mobile phone products. At the same time, the weak demand for high-end models and the recurrence of the epidemic have led to a slowdown in the development of the domestic mobile phone market. Analysts at CINNO Research told the Observer Network.
Source: CINNO Research
Over time, market conditions have not improved.
On March 31, Guo Mingxi said on social media that China's major Android mobile phone brands have cut orders by about 170 million units so far this year, accounting for 20% of the original 2022 shipment plan, of which more than 70% use MediaTek chips. He also said that orders may be further reduced in the future.
Screenshot of Ming-Chi Kuo's social media
The news that mobile phone manufacturers cut orders, in fact, there was a wind before the Spring Festival this year, when Morgan Stanley Securities revealed that "the smart phone chip supply chain is facing inventory adjustment", Haitong International, UBS Securities, etc. have believed that the demand for the new iPhone SE is not as good as expected, and then the main mobile phone processor supplier MediaTek has been downgraded by foreign investment.
HSBC Securities pointed out that the global economy is full of uncertainty, Chinese mainland has been hit by the epidemic, "the smartphone industry can not see the bright light at the end of the tunnel", so the agency decided to reduce the global smartphone shipment estimates for 2022 and 2023 by 5%, and the shipments in 2022 barely retained 1.3 billion units, and the 5G mobile phone shipment estimates are more conservative. Fubon Investment Advisory expects global smartphone shipments to be 1.318 billion units in 2022, down 3% from 1.352 billion units in 2021.
Source: Taiwan's "Business Times"
As a supplier seriously affected by the cutting orders, MediaTek is also the largest mobile phone chip manufacturer in the Chinese market, and low-end mobile phone chips account for the majority of its shipments. Therefore, there are also market views that mobile phone manufacturers mainly target low-end products.
But Ivan Lam, a senior analyst at Counterpoint, pointed out that MediaTek's orders were cut mainly high-end chips. In 2021, MediaTek released a new flagship Tianji 9000, intending to return to the list of high-end mobile phone chips. However, due to the fact that the research and development cycle of this new product is slightly later than Qualcomm's chip Snapdragon 8 in the same period, mobile phone manufacturers do not have enough time to cooperate, so demand is more seriously suppressed during the market downturn.
Judging from the data, the domestic mobile phone market has been sluggish since the beginning of the year. In this case, is it possible for manufacturers with serious internal involvement to seek further breakthroughs overseas? After all, there are many views that there are still overseas market segments that have not been fully tapped, which also means that there is still growth and profits overseas.
According to the financial report, in 2021, Xiaomi's business at home and abroad will be equally divided, and the company's overseas revenue will be 163.6 billion yuan for the whole year, accounting for 49.85%, and the revenue growth rate for three consecutive years will be more than 30%. At the same time, the market has news that OPPO and vivo's overseas revenue account for about half.
In terms of shipments, data from the research agency IDC shows that in 2021, the global shipment volume of Xiaomi mobile phones will be 181 million units, with a market share of about 14%, ranking third, second to Samsung and Apple; OPPO and Vivo's share is 9.9% and 9.4%, respectively, ranking fourth and fifth.
Honor has made slightly slower progress in overseas layout, but it has also put internationalization on the agenda.
On March 17, Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor, revealed that this year will speed up the global market, "whether it is Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, Latin America and other regions, our team is ready to go." Starting in March, a number of products will be released worldwide, and new products will be released almost every month in March and April. ”
Overseas markets can be opportunities, but they also mean risks.
First, the cold economic environment is global. According to the agency's forecast, the shrinking mobile phone shipments are certainly not only China, and the overseas market is likely to become the next fiercely competitive market; secondly, there are unpredictable risks for domestic manufacturers to deploy overseas. Taking India as an example, since the end of last year, a large-scale tax search has been launched on Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO and OnePlus; third, domestic mobile phone brands are mostly low-end products sold overseas, with low gross profit margins and limited help for high-end brands.