For Lao Chen, who is born in Guangdong and works in Nanjing, stealing batteries only happens to others, and he never thought he would encounter it.
On March 23rd, Lao Chen, who was happy to leave work after working overtime, was preparing to ride the little electric donkey home, but when Lao Chen saw that his well-equipped little electric donkey battery was hollowed out, and the lock was still decently restored, Old Chen broke his defenses.
In the process of waiting for the No. 68 bus, Lao Chen had words in his mouth, "Why can steal the battery still be so decent", "We must bring these lawbreakers to justice"...
Old Chen calmed down the sadness in his heart, in order to find a battery through the second-hand platform Haitao, open the yellow software to find the moment he saw the price of the second-hand battery, Lao Chen's sadness is not limited to heartache, and the tears are directly in Bengbu.
Think about the battery he bought at the original price of 400 yuan, and now a second-hand battery has actually risen to 388-400 yuan at the beginning, which makes Lao Chen decisively give up the second-hand battery and "turn" to the door of the community until the company's bus.
However, even so, Lao Chen's life did not get better, and on the first day, he was late for the morning rush hour and was full attendance -200.
Lao Chen began to realize that the days without the little electric donkey were not just as simple as reducing sleep by half an hour per day, changing the cost of transportation from 1 to 6 yuan a day, and changing the commute time from fifty minutes to two hours.
What Lao Chen did not expect was that affected by the fluctuation of commodities such as refined oil and lithium electronics, electric vehicles and household appliances using lithium batteries have soared, which has indirectly affected their own survival status.
In addition, it is difficult for Lao Chen to imagine that before the price increase, those consumers who accepted the price of electric bicycles, generally in the range of 1600-2500 yuan, now need to spend 400 yuan to buy second-hand batteries, how entangled, resistant, and finally because the small electric donkey can squeeze out more than ten minutes of precious sleep time, and "compromise".
It can be said that the price increase of raw materials "trapped" the domestic battery car, but also "trapped" the user.
First, the current situation of lithium-ion batteries
In fact, the price increase of lithium-ion batteries, the most obvious reaction is in the brand end.
The data shows that as an upstream industry in the lithium battery industry, the prices of nickel, cobalt and so on have recently soared.
As of mid-March, the domestic price of lithium carbonate rose from 280,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to about 500,000 yuan / ton, nickel prices rose from 155,000 yuan / ton to 260,000 yuan / ton, and cobalt prices rose from 490,000 yuan / ton to 570,000 yuan / ton, up about 220,000 yuan, 110,000 yuan and 80,000 yuan per ton respectively.
Obviously, the rise in the price of upstream raw materials will naturally increase the price of downstream products at the same time.
The impact of batteries does not only exist in electric vehicles, the impact of this same raw material must be from top to bottom, following the continuous "price increase tide" of electric vehicles, two-wheeled electric vehicles have also ushered in a collective price increase.
Similarly, like the price increase logic of four-wheeled electric vehicles, the core factor is also the sharp rise in the price of raw materials such as lithium batteries.
At the beginning of November 2021, Emma and Yadi successively issued price increase notices saying that the wholesale and terminal prices of electric vehicles were raised by 50-100 yuan. On November 15, 2021, Emma raised the price of electric vehicles, and the prices of all models were raised, and each electric vehicle was raised by 100-300 yuan, depending on the model, the increase range was different.
During February 2022, Emma once again announced a price adjustment for its electric vehicle products.
According to the announcement released by Xiaoniu Electric Vehicle, since April 1, the company will increase the retail guidance price of all pure electric products, ranging from 200-1000 yuan.
Interestingly, the joke on the Internet a few days ago that if you fill up 4 tanks of fuel, you can buy a two-wheeled electric car is becoming more and more difficult to achieve.
However, in terms of long-term dimension, in fact, in recent years, the sales of domestic electric bicycles are not low.
In 2020, the production of two-wheeled electric vehicles in the mainland reached 51 million units, and the sales volume of that year reached 47.6 million units, and the year-on-year growth rate of both figures exceeded 35%.
At present, the number of two-wheeled electric vehicles in the mainland has reached 320 million, and according to market forecasts, this data is expected to exceed 400 million this year as the market continues to be hot demand.
After 20 years of development, the two-wheeled electric vehicle industry in the mainland has formed a market of 100 billion.
(Photo: Sky Eye Check)
However, it is worth noting that even if the holding volume is not yet saturated, there is still panic in the market in the context of a sharp increase in the price of raw materials.
In fact, lithium batteries are not the first time to raise prices, and now the price of ordinary electric bicycles has come to 3500-3800 yuan, if the replacement is eliminated through brand profits, then brand operation pressure is still inevitable.
The other part of the brand that has not taken any measures and is forced to increase the price with the price of raw materials is the most worrying thing is that the price rises again and again, and the inventory backlog is accumulated.
It is also worth noting that for the electric car Mavericks whose starting point is the high-end route, sales are even more difficult under the situation of forced price increases in April this year.
According to the financial performance report for the fourth quarter and full year of 2021 released by Xiaoniu Electric, the total sales volume of Xiaoniu Electric in 2021 was 1.0379 million units, an increase of 72.5% year-on-year, and the sales volume in the Chinese market and the international market reached 988,000 units and 49,900 units, respectively.
Including Yadi, Emma and other head companies have already broken through the 10 million mark, and the seemingly powerful sales data of Mavericks is actually less than one-tenth of these companies.
Not only that, in the fourth quarter of 2021, Maverick achieved revenue of 986 million yuan, an increase of 46.7% year-on-year; achieved a net profit of 47.6467 million yuan, down 18.1% year-on-year, exposing the embarrassing situation of its increase in revenue and no increase in profit.
On the whole, what the current electric bicycle industry needs to think about is how to retain consumers under the trend that product prices need to rise to maintain costs.
Second, 430 million commuters are the biggest demand gap
According to data released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, there are about 750 million people employed on the mainland.
If you want to discuss the market demand, from the current 320 million two-wheeled electric vehicle ownership, the remaining 430 million commuters are the largest market, and electric bicycles can completely cover more demand gaps.
According to the "2021 China Major Cities Commuting Monitoring Report", Guangzhou will have an average one-way commute time of 38 minutes and an average commuting distance of 8.7 kilometers in 2020. The proportion of commuting distances within 5 kilometers is 52% in Guangzhou.
As of November 2021, the number of electric bicycles in Guangzhou alone has reached about 4 million, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen are the two cities with the best sales of electric vehicles.
Taking Shenzhen as an example, the demand for electric bicycles and electric motorcycles reaches 800,000 units a year.
This is just in line with the range of miles covered by the little electric donkey. Because in general, for commuting mileage of more than 3 kilometers, within 15 kilometers, the bus can not cover this part of the people, is the anchoring section of two-wheeled electric vehicles.
Secondly, the workers who live in accommodation and office areas away from the subway are planned, and the little electric donkey naturally becomes a just need.
In addition, for some workers, even if commuting is convenient, there is still a need to occasionally buy vegetables and pick up and drop off children.
However, the point is that under the pressure of lithium battery prices rising by 20% to 30%, how should brands increase sales.
If the brand gives up the price increase, the sales volume may go up, but there is no profit to speak of, and even the product price can not fully cover the price increase of raw material costs.
However, blindly due to the price increase of raw materials, consumers may not buy.
On the other hand, if we continue to integrate upstream in accordance with the practice similar to the automobile industry, such as not only producing vehicles but also making batteries to increase revenue space, then this is not realistic for two-wheeler companies.
The reason is very simple, relative to the automobile, the two-wheeler industry is relatively small, it is not easy to get involved in the upstream, and the scale of battery companies is often greater than that of two-wheeler companies.
Obviously, while the price of the product is rising, increasing the function and improving the configuration has become one of the few choices for the brand. In other words, under the great market demand, the competition between brands has shifted more to the technical and product design levels.
For example, some users think that keyless start is very good, which requires a Bluetooth function to the car, which also requires some costs. For example, the dashboard is traditionally based on black and white, and now many people like color screens, which will also bring some cost increases.
However, to some extent, relying solely on brand innovation is not the most correct solution.
Third, to improve the sales space, electric bicycles still have difficulties
In fact, the problem of the current industry is not yet perfect, and the problem is particularly obvious, among which the battery life has always been the pain point of the electric vehicle industry
The new national standard for two-wheeled electric vehicles has made strict regulations on the motor power and maximum speed of electric bicycles:
Have the ability to pedal and ride;
With electric drive or/and electrical assist function;
Battery nominal voltage less than or equal to 48V;
Motor rated continuous output power less than or equal to 400W;
The vehicle mass of the complete electric bicycle is less than or equal to 55kg;
When driving by electric drive, the maximum design speed does not exceed 25km/h, and the speed exceeds 25km/h, and the motor shall not provide power output.
So many electric automatic vehicles have too short a battery life and a long commuting distance, and may only be able to run a one-way trip.
It is true that if you want to improve the mileage, you cannot completely solve the problem by improving the battery technology alone, but also need to pay attention to tire quality, brake adjustment, motor magnet, climbing ability, temperature resistance and controller speed regulation.
Of course, from the user's point of view, today's smart change cabinet seems to be a good way of "endurance".
Because the battery life can not meet the needs of users, and the charging pile has charging time pain points, as well as can not meet the huge charging needs of residents and other issues, the power exchange mode of changing the power cabinet is to a great extent, which has greatly changed the battery life problem of electric bicycles.
However, turning attention to the price of the replacement package, it is not easy for office workers to accept it.
For example, brands such as tower power exchange, Xiaoha power exchange, etc., provide a 30-day unlimited number of power exchange packages, the price is 300 yuan, even if the unlimited number of power changes, for the daily commute is almost fixed, the single-day commuting cost is still not cost-effective for office workers.
Of course, it is undeniable that the replacement of the electrical cabinet is a good job demand for service groups such as couriers and takeaway brothers, but if the replacement cabinet needs to cover more user groups, the price must be the first hurdle.
Finally, we will pull our sights back to the electric bicycle industry, in the product price increase, endurance restrictions, charging and replacing there are pain points at the moment, in the industry's relatively "tense" situation, can not say that electric bicycles have no market, because electric bicycles as a "new national standard", there is a "foot pedal" in the product configuration.
However, as an important means of transportation for daily travel, consumers are actually more loyal to "electric".
In summary, for electric bicycle brands, it is obviously not the best way to increase sales with product innovation. Perhaps when the consensus is reached with users on the price of the replacement cabinet, it can indirectly increase the sales volume of the sales end, but when this consensus occurs, we do not know.