At a time when the global situation is in turmoil, the changes in Europe are particularly interesting, in addition to the situation of the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, another major event in Europe is the French election. The French election could trigger another big shift in the European landscape, and if The current French president, Emmanuel Macron, loses the election, the U.S. and European sanctions against Russia could be vastly short.
First thing: the French election, a major event affecting European politics!
On April 9, according to Reuters, the first round of voting was held in the French general election on April 10. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron's poll lead over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is narrowing.
Polls on BFM's website showed Macron's approval rating of 26 percent, down two percentage points again, and Le Pen's support rose two percentage points to 25 percent.
In fact, in 2017, Macron struggled to win the duel with Le Pen to the end, this time Macron's advantage has shrunk sharply, and french politics may fall into big fluctuations.
First of all, Le Pen, in fact, the United States has a lot of criticism of Le Pen, the US media quoted senior officials of the Biden administration as claiming that the United States is afraid of "Putin supporters" Le Pen after his election to "shake the Western anti-Russian alliance", which will make Putin fight a "big victory" in Paris first.
In fact, Le Pen has two particularly noteworthy claims, one is that she advocates withdrawing from NATO, and the other is that she expresses sympathy for Putin's reasons for waging war and rejects some of the Western alliance's tough actions against Russia.
If Le Pen is elected and France withdraws from NATO, then nato, which the United States has worked so hard to use the situation in Russia and Ukraine to unite, will fall into division.
With the withdrawal of France, the rest of Europe will inevitably waver, and whether the United States uses NATO to contain Russia or target China, it will not be so united. This is clearly something the United States does not want to see.
Moreover, Le Pen is sympathetic to Russia and, crucially, the French public is increasingly dissatisfied with rising energy prices.
If Le Pen comes to power, like Orbán in Hungary, he will promote pragmatic energy policies. Then, the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia are likely to open a big gap.
Therefore, the current election in France affects the situation in Europe and will also have an impact on the world pattern. Moreover, judging from Le Pen's high approval rating, this also reflects the change in the minds of the French people. The United States can still afford to abandon its previous achievements in suppressing Russia under European sanctions.
Of course, even if Macron is re-elected, this does not mean that the United States is on the same plate as Europe. Speaking at the voters' meeting on the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, Macron stressed that Russia and its people need to be respected, and that long-term peace on the European continent cannot be achieved without Russia's participation.
Macron also said that if Russia shuts down gas supply, next winter in Europe will be more difficult. So don't look at Europe following the United States in sanctioning Russia, but the temperature difference is still very obvious. But there is no doubt that Le Pen will have a greater impact if he wins.
Second thing: the EU warns Hungary not to become a spoiler of EU unity!
On April 7, EU Council President von der Leyen said that if Hungary paid Russia for gas in rubles, it would violate EU sanctions. Von der Leyen claims that she believes no member state wants to be the first country to break the EU's unity.
Von der Leyen's words meant that Hungary should not use the ruble to buy Russian energy, and beat Hungary not to be a destroyer of EU unity.
But despite von der Leyen's knocks, they may not have had any effect on Orbán, who has just been elected prime minister for the fourth consecutive time.
During his re-election campaign, Orbán made it abundantly clear to voters that Hungary "cannot reject cheap russian gas and instead buy high-priced american energy."
And Orban said the idea that European countries, including Hungary, want the United States to ship enough LNG to Europe is not feasible. For Hungary, Gazprom is the only option. ”
"It's not a matter of wearing an extra sweater at night, turning down the heating a little less, or spending more money on natural gas," Orban notes.
Without Russian energy, Hungary would have no energy available at all. Howoch, director of the Hungarian government's press office, revealed that 85% of Hungarian households use natural gas for heating, and 64% of Hungary's crude oil imports come from Russia.
Obviously, Orbán has a very objective and clear understanding of Hungary's current energy dependence on Russia. Compared to Orbán's pragmatic attitude, von der Leyen is more like the man who lives in a vacuum.
Von der Leyen behaves as if the EUROPEAN Union is united in sanctions against Russia and Europe's energy problems do not exist. Can sanctions solve Europe's energy problems?
As the eu's leading official, if coerced at the expense of the interests of member states, a superficial unity is maintained. In fact, the essence of such unity is hollow and has lost its practical significance. But apparently, von der Leyen didn't notice this.
The third thing: The US military provoked and did not allow China to use "force" to solve the Taiwan issue!
On April 7, Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, claimed at a Senate hearing that the United States would help Taiwan "defend itself" while letting Chinese mainland know that "capturing" Taiwan is a "very, very difficult goal."
If the United States wants the mainland to know that "armed reunification" cannot be done, China must be clear about this.
Not only that, mark Milley claims that China remains the number one long-term geostrategic challenge facing the United States. China continues to develop "critical nuclear, space, cyber, land, air, and maritime military capabilities, and they work every day to close the technological gap with the United States and its allies."
Mark Milley also claimed that China's strategic goal is to "fundamentally change the global international order in its interests" by the middle of this century, arguing that China intends to "become a military adversary of the United States by 2035" and "develop a military capability to seize Taiwan by 2027."
As for the argument that the US military will not allow China to use force to resolve the Taiwan issue, this is really a strange thing; the Taiwan issue is our own affair, and in what way will it be stipulated by the United States?
Moreover, this attitude of the United States is, in fact, pushing the Taiwan issue to a situation where it can only be resolved by force.
For us, of course, our best option is peaceful reunification, but if the possibility of peaceful reunification does not exist, we will inevitably achieve reunification by force.
In China's great cause of reunification, the United States should think clearly about what role it wants to play. If the United States interferes in China's great cause of reunification, the United States will be our enemy.
In fact, the United States has always claimed that China challenges the existing international order, which actually includes two meanings, one is that Taiwan cannot be reunified, and the other is that the world rules formulated by the United States cannot be changed by China.
Obviously, China does not recognize such a statement as the so-called international order of the United States. First, we want to take back Taiwan, and second, we must change the unreasonable rules that hinder China's development.
Should the United States swallow its own policy of containing, containing, and suppressing China? Should China accept the hostile policy of the United States?
Obviously, China refuses to accept all this. In the relations between China and the United States, China hopes to be equal and respectful, mutually beneficial and win-win, but the United States does not have such sincerity, and the United States wants to engage in unipolar hegemony and proceed from the position of strength.
If anything in the United States is reasonable, then blame China for being tough on the United States!
(End of this article)
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