36Kr Research Institute | 2022 China Industrial Robot Industry Insight Report

Industrial robots are the key supporting equipment for advanced manufacturing and an important starting point for the mainland to deeply implement the strategy of manufacturing power. With the decline of the labor force population, the rise in labor costs, and the increasingly prominent demand for digitalization and intelligent transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, the mainland industrial robot market has achieved rapid development and has been widely used in electronics, automotive, metal processing, lithium batteries, photovoltaics and other industries. In the future, with the accelerated technological breakthroughs of domestic manufacturers and the continuous narrowing of the gap with foreign brands, the competitiveness of the mainland industrial robot industry will be further enhanced. At the same time, with the introduction of a series of support policies by the government and the acceleration of the application of innovative products such as collaborative robots in special manufacturing scenarios, the scale of the industrial robot industry in the mainland will be further expanded, and it is expected to reach 58.9 billion yuan in 2023, and the CAGR will be about 11.7% in 2020-2023.

1. Development Overview Policy environment: The mainland has accelerated the construction of a manufacturing power, and a series of policies have encouraged the development of the industrial robot industry

Industrial robots are an important starting point for the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, and their research and development, manufacturing and application have become an important symbol of measuring the level of high-end manufacturing in the country. In recent years, the State Council, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have successively issued a series of policy documents to promote the healthy development of the industrial robot industry, thereby providing assistance for accelerating the construction of a manufacturing power. In December 2021, the "14th Five-Year Plan" Robot Industry Development Plan (Joint Regulation [2021] No. 206 of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology) was issued, proposing to promote the development and application of industrial robot products such as welding robots, vacuum (clean) robots, logistics robots, collaborative robots, and mobile operation robots for key industries such as automobiles, aerospace, rail transit, and semiconductors.

Market size: The demand for industrial robots in mainland China is strong, and production and sales have continued to recover in recent years

At present, the number of labor force population in the mainland is declining, and labor costs are rising year by year, which promotes the continuous growth of "machine substitution" demand in simple and highly repetitive application scenarios. At the same time, with the in-depth development of intelligent manufacturing, the demand for intelligent upgrading and transformation of manufacturing enterprises continues to increase, promoting the greater development of the industrial robot industry. On the one hand, the output of industrial robots continues to increase. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, the output of industrial robots in the mainland reached 366,000 units, an increase of 44.9% year-on-year; from January to February 2022, the output of industrial robots was 76,000 units, an increase of 29.6% year-on-year. On the other hand, the sales growth rate of industrial robots has turned positive. According to the Data of the Chinese Institute of Electronics, in 2020, when the global robot market was affected by the epidemic, the sales of industrial robots in the mainland began to recover, increasing by 18.9% year-on-year; it is expected that by 2023, the domestic market size will further expand to 58.9 billion yuan.

2. Industrial chain structure

The industrial robot industry chain includes three major links: upstream, midstream and downstream. The upstream mainly provides the core components required for the production of industrial robots, the midstream is manufactured for the industrial robot body, and the downstream includes system integration and terminal applications.

Upstream: the three core components of reducer, servo motor and controller account for 70% of the total cost of industrial robots

The three core components of reducer, servo motor and controller are the technical barriers and the highest cost in the industrial robot industry chain, which jointly determine the accuracy, stability, load capacity and other important performance indicators of the robot. According to OFweek data, reducers, servo motors and controllers account for 35%, 20% and 15% of the total cost of industrial robots, respectively, accounting for up to 70% of the total cost.

Precision reducers rely heavily on imports, and the production technology of domestic manufacturers continues to mature. The reducer is mainly used in the joints of the robot, which is responsible for converting the high-speed running power output by the servo motor into the movement of low speed and high torque, and determining the accuracy and load of the industrial robot. According to the different transmission principles, robot-specific reducers can be divided into RV reducers and harmonic reducers. According to MIR DATABANK data, 75% of the world's precision reducer market is currently occupied by Japan's Nabotsk and Hamonak. Among them, Nabotsk produces RV reducers, accounting for about 60% of the share; Hamonak produces harmonic reducers, accounting for about 15% of the share. Among the domestic reducers, the production technology of RV reducer faucets such as double-ring transmission, Nantong Zhenkang, and Zhongdaide and high-quality manufacturers in the field of harmonic reducers such as green harmonics and rifle harmonics continue to mature, accelerating to catch up with and surpass the international advanced level.

The market share of domestic servo brands has increased rapidly. The servo system is responsible for driving the movement of the robot and consists of a servo drive and a servo motor. Among them, the servo drive is responsible for the position, speed, torque and other control; the servo motor is the engine that controls the operation of mechanical components in the servo system, and converts the received voltage signal into torque and speed to drive the control object. Domestic servo manufacturers are striving to catch up with the international advanced level in product performance, size and other indicators, while domestic brands have lower sales prices, and the cost-effective advantage is constantly highlighted. MIRDATABANK data shows that in the first half of 2021, Huichuan Technology ranked first with a market share of 15.9%, 4 percentage points higher than the second place Yaskawa Electric.

The controller is responsible for planning the movement mode of the robot, issuing and transmitting action instructions through hardware and software, controlling the robot's movement position, attitude, trajectory and operation sequence, etc., to ensure the normal operation of the robot system and enable the robot to meet the required technical indicators. At present, the controllers of major robot manufacturers at home and abroad such as ABB, KUKA, Siasong, and Xinshida are independently developed on the basis of the general multi-axis motion controller platform, so the market share distribution of industrial robot controllers is similar to that of industrial robot body market share distribution. According to Guoyuan Securities data, in the first quarter of 2021, the localization rate of industrial robots in the mainland was about 30.6%.

Midstream: The main market share of industrial robots in the mainland is still occupied by foreign-funded enterprises, and domestic brands accelerate the self-development of technology

Industrial robots mainly include four types of vertical multi-joint robots, SCARA robots, Delta robots and collaborative robots, of which the first three types are also known as traditional industrial robots. According to OFweek data, the above four types of industrial robots accounted for 63%, 30%, 3% and 4% of the overall industrial robot market in mainland China in 2020. At present, the main market share of industrial robots in mainland China is still occupied by foreign-funded enterprises. According to MIR DATABANK data, in the first quarter of 2021, FANUC, ABB, Yaskawa, Epson and KUKA accounted for more than 50% of the total; domestic leaders represented by Eston, Zhongweixing, Huichuan Technology, etc., started earlier, have a certain scale and technical strength, and the market share is about 3%.

Downstream: Industrial robots are widely used in electronics, automotive, metal processing, lithium batteries, photovoltaics and other industries

Through customized integration development for specific user needs, system integrators can realize the application deployment of industrial robots in specific scenarios. Due to the advantages of local system integrators in terms of services, channels, prices, etc., the mainland industrial robot system integration market is dominated by domestic brands. According to MIR DATABANK data, the domestic brand market share is as high as 96%, and there are many industry participants, and the competition is fierce.

Industrial robot terminal applications are mainly concentrated in electronics, automotive, metal processing, lithium batteries, photovoltaics and other industries. According to MIR DATABANK data, in the first quarter of 2021, the applications of electronics, automotive parts, automotive electronics, automotive vehicles, metal products, food and beverages, lithium batteries and photovoltaics accounted for 30%, 8%, 6%, 5%, 17%, 7%, 7% and 6% respectively.

3. Development prospects The three core component technologies need to be overcome urgently, and the space for import substitution is vast

At present, the main suppliers of core components such as continental reducers, servo systems, and controllers are still dominated by foreign-funded enterprises, and there is a wide space for import substitution. As the part with the highest cost and added value in the industrial robot industry chain, the three core components are the key links that domestic manufacturers urgently need to overcome. As domestic brands continue to increase investment in research and development, they are striving to catch up with the international advanced level in product performance, size and other indicators, and the localization process of core components such as high-precision reducers and high-performance servo motors will continue to accelerate.

Industrial robots are developing in the direction of miniaturization, lightness and flexibility, and collaborative robots will become an important innovation direction

With the iterative update and innovative development of technology such as process design and advanced composite materials, industrial robots are developing in the direction of miniaturization, lightweighting and flexibility, which can help or replace humans to complete more complex and delicate work on a wider scale. Collaborative robots have the advantages of fast installation, flexible deployment, simple programming, and high safety, and can adapt to special manufacturing application scenarios, which will become an important development direction of industrial robots.