Recently, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 17 departments issued the ""Robot +" Application Action Implementation Plan, proposing to focus on 10 key areas, break through more than 100 innovative technology solutions, and promote more than 200 typical scenarios with significant application results.
China's robot density has surpassed the United States in 2021. The goal now is to double the density of manufacturing robots by 2025 compared to 2020.
Before we knew it, we were surrounded by robots. Robots that talk on the phone, customer service robots that answer automatically on the computer, robots that keep recommending you on your mobile phone, robots that chat with you, industrial robots that turn screws in factories, sweeping robots at home, service robots that deliver towels with dishes in restaurants and hotels, humanoid robots that are coming towards you, RPA (process automation robots) that are busy calling and directing various programs in computer systems, and so on.
If machines that can help and replace humans to complete certain tasks, they can be classified as robots, and those robotic exoskeletons that help disabled people are classified as robot industries. If brain-computer interface technology is mature, machines that help humans remember, control, and use their brains can also fall into this category. Brain-controlled exoskeletons have emerged that make it possible for completely paralyzed people to walk freely.
In the global manufacturing industry, there are 141 robots for every 10,000 employees. Over the past 5 years, the number of robots in Asia has grown rapidly, reaching a density of 156, surpassing 129 in Europe and 117 in the Americas. Asia has become the world's undisputed center of advanced manufacturing. It is the center of the global electrical and electronics industry and the global center of automotive manufacturing, which has the highest density of robots used. In many countries with advanced robotics technology, labor shortages after the pandemic have further exacerbated the demand for robots.
If a robot can walk upright on both feet, can talk to people, and respond to people's eyes, expressions, and body language, what is the difference between this and the robot in science fiction? In fact, each capability has been developed independently and rapidly, and one day, it will be integrated into a real robot.
China has already been the country with the most robots, and for the first time, China has surpassed the United States, with a robot density of 343 per 10,000 people. Half of the world's industrial robots work endlessly in the world's factories, replacing the aging generation of migrant workers; On e-commerce and short video platforms, robots are also endlessly pushing Chinese-made goods to the world.
Robots are constantly "evolving" according to this logic: from fixed to mobile, from rigid to flexible, from mechanical to intelligent, from independent to collaborative, from single to universal.
Building robots has even been open-sourced. It can complete one or several basic actions of a person, and then use this basic action to complete the basic task repeatedly. The most common robotic arms, six-axis robots, sliding or rolling robots, as well as AGVs, AMRs, etc. They can complete a task more precisely and consistently than humans, such as welding in a factory, sorting goods in a warehouse, or accurately sending parts to the next process in the workshop, or taking an elevator up and down in a hotel. However, they can all accomplish only a single task.
The physical world we are currently in is designed according to the size of people, and the most suitable for this social ecology is obviously robots that can really do things like people. Robots are becoming increasingly mobile, free, intelligent, and more collaborative with humans. Humans are accelerating to get machine learning for their own skills and intelligence. Compared with special-shaped robots, humanoid robots do have their own unique advantages.
Humanoid robots can be used as natural business entrances and given more commercial value. The application scenarios of humanoid robots are more versatile, because their humanoid shape is more acceptable, which may break the barriers of factory, commercial and household and become a truly universal product; To accomplish different tasks in different workplaces, simply adjust the work model or download different software, just like humans apply for different jobs. According to a research report by market research firm Markets and Markets, the total market for humanoid robots, although only $1.5 billion in 2022, will grow to $17.3 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 63.5%.
The development of humanoid robots has gone through an early stage of development represented by humanoid robots at Waseda University; The highly integrated development stage of the system represented by Honda's humanoid robot; At present, it is in the highly dynamic movement development stage represented by Boston Dynamics' humanoid robot, and representative products include Pepper of SoftBank, Digit launched by Agility Robotics, in which Amazon participated, and Ameca developed by British technology company Engineered Arts. Humanoid robots are becoming a new competitive commanding height in the field of intelligent manufacturing in major industrial powers.
Source: Boston Dynamics Youtube video "Atlas Gets a Grip"
Many of the types of product innovation proposed in China's 14th Five-Year Plan for Robot Development are developing towards humanoid robots. For example, for 3C, auto parts and other fields of large-load, lightweight, flexible, double-arm, mobile and other collaborative robots, can move anywhere in the transfer, grinding, assembly and other working areas, realize any position and attitude in space, mobile operation robots with flexible grasping and operation capabilities, and so on.
China has become a robot powerhouse and is also stepping up the development of humanoid robots. The "Forerunner" robot developed by the National University of Defense Technology can complete static and dynamic walking movements; The "HIT-III" robot launched by Harbin Institute of Technology can complete actions such as going up and down slopes; The "THBIP-II" developed by Tsinghua University is 0.75m tall, weighs 18kg and has 24 degrees of freedom; Zhejiang University has developed a humanoid robot that can play table tennis. The "Huitong" robot launched by Beijing Institute of Technology can complete actions such as falling and rising, "falling, walking and climbing". In the enterprise field, UBTECH's Walker X, Xiaomi's CyberOne, Tencent robot dog MAX and a series of humanoid and animaloid robots represent China's technological level.
Autonomous driving technology is facilitating the development of humanoid robots. The technical core of Tesla's humanoid robot prototype "Optimus" is highly reusable with Tesla cars, especially the computing engine and sensor system are fully multiplexed, and even algorithms can be mostly reused. A smart electric car is essentially a four-wheeled robot. It is precisely because of the high versatility of the core technology that Tesla can significantly reduce the cost, because the cost of chip and technology research and development in the early stage has been diluted by car sales, and a large number of parts and procurement in the later stage can be shared with electric vehicles, plus the expanding manufacturing plant can also manufacture robots, and provide working scenarios for robots. Now it is true that only Tesla has certain conditions that may push the price of humanoid robots to a sufficiently commercial level.
Robotics, autonomous driving, drones and other technologies are increasingly converging, creating a broad avenue for the realization of humanoid robots at scale and cost reduction. In fact, only countries with these related industries at the same time have the conditions to develop commercial humanoid robots.
Whether it is creating bipedal robots that act as quickly as people, designing virtual humans that can talk to people freely, or using exoskeletons or brain-computer interfaces to realize the integration of human body and machine, the instinct of human creativity is to create things created by the creator. Humanoid robots, 2023 will accelerate towards commercialization.