Just three months into 2022, what has happened is enough to make the world feel anxious.
In addition to the recurrence and volatility of the epidemic, the war between Russia and Ukraine, which in turn brought about sanctions against Russia by Western countries led by the United States, has led to a violent shock to the global economy.
The economic development of many countries and the lives of the people have been greatly affected.
In order to further suppress Russia, the United States demanded that important oil countries in the Middle East remove Russia from the oil union, while continuing to stabilize world oil prices by increasing production. But the U.S. plan was rejected by several oil-rich powers.
So what is the reason for the "world hegemon" of the United States to eat "closed doors"?
First, the United States controls oil prices
First, let's analyze why the United States has control over the world's oil prices.
Crude oil, that is, raw oil extracted from oil wells, is of very high value, involving the application of trains, ships, tractors, cars, clothing, etc., so it is also called "black gold".
Moreover, oil also has a very important significance of the times and is the most important strategic material in modern times.
It is precisely because of the wide range of oil use that oil-rich countries are not only economically rich, but also play an important role in the international community. Some people say that whoever controls the price of oil controls the economic lifeblood of the world.
For the United States, which is accustomed to the posture of dominating the world, itself is also one of the world's largest crude oil importers and exporters, and naturally will not let go of control over oil energy.
So how did the United States manage to manipulate the world's oil prices?
First, it is to bundle the value of the dollar with the price of oil. Specifically, the dollar depreciates and the oil price appreciates; when the oil price appreciates, the dollar depreciates.
Let's illustrate this argument with an example. Go back in time to 1973, the year of the oil crisis, the world's first.
Within three years of the crisis, U.S. industrial production fell by 14 percent, according to statistics. In 1979, the second oil crisis occurred unexpectedly, and U.S. industrial production once again fell sharply, reaching 11.8 percent.
At the same time, many people in the country have suffered from unemployment, and the unemployment rate has climbed to 9.2%. In the early 21st century, the third oil crisis broke out, and the dollar fell badly.
And it has lasted a long time, from the United States to many other countries in the world, domestic economic growth has been severely declined. Summarizing the situation of these three oil crises, the common denominator is that oil prices have soared, while the dollar index has plummeted.
Therefore, crude oil and the US dollar are basically negatively correlated. Therefore, controlling the exchange rate of the US dollar is one of the ways in which the United States manipulates oil prices.
Secondly, it is to further reduce the price of crude oil by vigorously developing alternatives to crude oil and form a control over the price of crude oil. The so-called "crude oil alternative" in the United States is shale oil.
The extraction of shale oil is of considerable economic value to the United States. Because so far, the extraction of shale oil is a major hurdle, and the technology is now only in the hands of the United States.
The cost of shale oil itself is very low, which can replace many application scenarios of oil.
For example, it can play a role in industry, agriculture, medicine, dyeing and weaving and synthetic materials. And in recent years, the amount of mining has gradually climbed.
Of course, for the emergence of shale oil, the OPEC organization is also aware of its threat to crude oil, so it is planning to increase crude oil production, which will suppress US shale oil.
But from another point of view, it has prompted the United States to form an indirect control over international oil prices.
Second, why support Russia
At present, western countries are under greater pressure on OPEC, because Western countries want to make it a member of this organization to increase crude oil production.
But OPEC knows what the negative impact of doing so will have on Russia, which is also a member of the group.
It should be known that Russia is also a big country that produces crude oil, and if it is on the opposite side of Russia, then the consequences will naturally have many negative effects.
Middle Eastern countries, on the other hand, are more willing to remain neutral than to be dominated by U.S. opinion. But it is not so much that these Middle Eastern countries are supporting Russia, but rather that they are making trade-off choices for their own interests.
Although the United States is the dominant hegemon, for the Middle East countries, Russia's strength and status should not be underestimated.
More importantly, these Middle Eastern countries have long been dissatisfied with what the United States has done, and they do not want to completely become "pawns" in the hands of the United States and completely leave it to the United States.
They are well aware that the US sanctions against Russia and the demand for oil prices are more that the US selfish examination of its own interests does not do much good for the development of the country.
And compared with the arbitrary United States, Russia has a sense of closeness to itself.
Especially at the cultural and spiritual level, there seems to be a greater tacit understanding with the countries of the Middle East. Historically, the United States, Russia, and the countries of the Middle East have always had deeper, more complex relationships.
You know, in the Middle East countries, religious belief occupies a very important position. These mainly include The Shiites led by Iran and the Sunnis, led by Saudi Arabia.
Although the two factions are both Muslims, there have always been great differences and contradictions.
In this way, under the influence of religion, fierce armed conflicts between Shiites and Sunnis always broke out.
The addition of the United States and Russia has gradually escalated the problems of the Middle East to important issues that the world is paying close attention to, and thus has an important impact on the world economy.
It is true that the military strength of the United States is very strong, and Russia is not much different from it, and it is also recognized by the world as the second in the world, only after the United States.
It is understood that Russia's army equipment is a must, not only the number of army personnel is huge, but also a variety of advanced weapons, combat vehicles, nuclear submarines and so on.
In addition, Russia also has a very deadly large weapon, that is, a smelly nuclear weapon. How powerful the power of nuclear weapons is, I believe that friends who have learned about history will hear about it.
Russia's nuclear weapons are comparable to those of the United States in terms of number and performance.
This is also the source of confidence for Russia to dare to compete with the United States.
Thus, in terms of military capability, Russia, like the United States, has the capital to keep other countries wary of it and not easily offended. Then there's the point to be made about the dissatisfaction of middle Eastern countries with the United States.
The United States, believing that it has provided assistance to Middle Eastern countries in certain aspects, believes that it has occupied the right to speak about these Middle Eastern countries.
Under this pretext, the United States has frequently used force against countries in the Middle East. The impression of the people in the Middle East on the United States is extremely poor, and over time, they have developed a great dislike for the United States.
In particular, in Iran, Iraq, and Syria, which have been suppressed by the United States, the anti-AMERICAN sentiment of the people is getting higher and higher. In this context, the people of the Middle East naturally hope that Russia will join to resist the United States, so as not to stretch the arms of the United States too long.
Finally, it is necessary to mention Russia's cultural ties with the Middle East. Given the natural geographical influence, the history of Russia and the history of the Middle East have long been very closely linked.
In the past frequent wars, Russia and the Middle East have also gained a deeper understanding of each other's cultures, and have formed a certain tacit understanding at the spiritual level.
In particular, Russia is closer to the people of the Middle East than the United States wants to turn the Middle East into an "American Middle East", more like a neighbor.
Under the combination of such multiple backgrounds, the countries of the Middle East will not choose to exclude and encourage Russia as the United States wishes, and are more willing to remain neutral according to their own wishes.
Third, the impact of sanctions against Russia
Russia has always been a "sensitive topic" in the eyes of Western countries led by the United States. Since the outbreak of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it has allowed Western countries to seize the handle and impose repeated and increasingly severe sanctions on them.
These include the withdrawal of financial institutions and other enterprises from Russia, which were originally belonging to Western countries, and the severe and persistent penalties of Russian enterprises in Western countries.
Russia's economic relations with Western countries are gradually on the verge of rupture. It is important to know that sanctions against Russia will not only have a very bad impact on the lives of its own citizens and the development of the country, but also have a negative impact on the economy of the world.
One of the most crucial points is that the international financial ecology has been destroyed and the economic costs have been forced to rise.
According to Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, one of the world's largest asset management groups, the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is likely to have a bad impact on the globalization process.
Once economic globalization is blocked, it is bound to bring many negative and continuously spreading effects to the lives of people in various countries.
In the process of smooth development of economic globalization, the countries that join it can enjoy many tangible preferential and low-price benefits in foreign trade, thereby maintaining stable operation of the global economic market.
But after Russia is sanctioned, the globalization of the economy will be fractured.
Many low-price and welfare policies cannot be shared in many countries, which means that the world will usher in higher inflation inflation, and many countries and countless citizens will feel negative under the pressure of high prices.
Although only Russia is sanctioned, behind the sanctions is the "side" and differentiation of Western countries, Middle Eastern countries and many countries in Asia.
This has invisibly led to a rift between countries, allowing more countries to stand on the opposite level from the friendly relations of the past, thereby increasing the operating costs of the global economy.
According to a report issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in late March, the world economic growth forecast for 2022 has been revised down at 1%, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the main reason for the downward revision of growth expectations.
If the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a significant armed conflict, then sanctions between countries are equivalent to a hidden war, and its deterrent power is even more powerful and deadly than real guns.
Behind it are innocent citizens of the world. In this game of oil prices and war, everything may happen, and the development of the world economy may also enter another track that is difficult to control.
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