In March, the "traditional peak season" of heavy truck sales, the market demand is poor, even the author does not want to write again...
The monthly sales of less than 80,000 vehicles are said to be the "traditional peak season", does anyone believe it?
Monthly trend chart of heavy-duty truck sales in the mainland heavy-duty truck market from 2015 to 2022 (unit: units)
According to the preliminary data grasped by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in March this year, the mainland heavy-duty truck market sold about 77,000 vehicles, up 30% from February this year, down 67% from 230,000 units in the same period last year, and a net decrease of 153,000 units; 77,000 units, the lowest sales point in the heavy-duty truck market since March 2017, only slightly higher than the 75,000 units in March 2016. March was also the eleventh consecutive month of decline in the heavy-duty truck market since May last year.
After March, the heavy-duty truck market in the first quarter of 2022 achieved cumulative sales of 232,000 units, down 56% from 531,600 units in the same period last year, a decrease of nearly 300,000 units!
According to the analysis of the first commercial vehicle network, the reasons for the sharp year-on-year decline in the heavy truck market in March are mainly in four aspects. The first is the epidemic. In March, the new crown epidemic rebounded in various places, and Jilin, Shanghai and other places were the hardest hit areas of the epidemic, and even by the end of March, the epidemic situation had not been greatly alleviated. That is to say, throughout March, all parts of the country have invested their focus and resources on epidemic prevention and control, which not only affects the flow of personnel and material transportation, but also delays the resumption of work and production in various places and the start of infrastructure investment projects, and also inhibits the demand of end users to purchase new cars. Logistics, first of all, to transport personnel and transport materials "flow up", fully flow up will produce new demand for car purchase. But in the environment of March, such an adequate flow is clearly unrealistic.
Secondly, the road transport market has too many cars and less goods, low freight, high new car ownership, insufficient supply and other phenomena still exist, and the changes in the overall economic environment and policy environment in March have made many manufacturing enterprises or actively limit production (the sharp rise in raw material prices has led to enterprises taking the initiative to reduce production), or passive production restriction or even production suspension (the local epidemic prevention and control policy has been tightened). The supply of "output" of manufacturing has further decreased, resulting in many logistics companies and logistics people having no goods to pull, or a significant reduction in freight volume. In this case, who would dare to buy a new car and change a new car?
Annual trend chart of heavy-duty truck sales in the mainland heavy-duty truck market from 2014 to 2022 (unit: 10,000 units)
Third, in March, many heavy-duty truck manufacturing enterprises and related parts and components enterprises were affected by the local epidemic and the restrictions of epidemic prevention and control policies, and production capacity declined to varying degrees for a period of time. The decline in the "supply side" of enterprises means that the production of heavy-duty truck manufacturers cannot fully meet the car purchase needs of dealers and users, which also leads to the decline in market sales in the month.
Fourth, the base of the same period last year was too high, which objectively led to the year-on-year data in March being "ugly". According to the official data of the China Automobile Association, due to the stimulation of the continuous hot market and the positive expectation that the switch of China VI will lead to the early purchase of China V, the sales of heavy trucks in March 2021 are the highest point in the history of monthly sales of heavy trucks in the country and even the world, with sales reaching 230,000 vehicles! 230,000 units, which is about 80% of the annual heavy truck sales in the European Union and North America - europe and the United States have nearly a year of heavy truck sales, and we have completed it in one month. With such a high and even global record sales base for the same period, it is impossible that the heavy-duty truck market will not fall sharply in March this year.
Another point to mention is that although many places have announced new infrastructure projects in January and February this year, the substantive start of these infrastructure projects requires time, and it requires a lot of capital investment, and the speed of transmission to the heavy truck market will not be so fast; moreover, the epidemic situation in March is relatively serious, anti-epidemic and epidemic prevention are the top priorities of local governments, and other work must be in the back row, which will also lead to the postponement of the peak season for infrastructure projects.
Philosophy tells us that to look at something is to be seen dialectically. The market was suppressed to the extreme in March, will it lead to a sharp rebound in market sales in mid-to-late April and even in May and June?
Quite possibly. At least in May and June, the market will not be too bad, and there will be a more obvious increase from the previous month. Now, the "hope of the whole village" is pinned on May and June!