preface
As the Cyborg No. 2 after Rashford, Alfonso's national costume activity followed suit. This article examines the routine and odds of winning this new event, and whether it is suitable for participation.
This article is to simplify the mathematical model, assuming that you are all running to Alfonso.
01
Brief description of the activity
Different from the previous glory gift boxes and sacrifice activities, this Alfonso event opened a new moment gold-sucking activity mode. The first reminder is that this Alfonso event is not like the glory gift box and the sacrifice activity is a hammer deal that krypton can get the ultimate reward, which means that this time if you are lucky, in the case of the first few stages without spending too many gold coins, there is a certain probability that you will get Alfonso.
So the core of this article is to explore the probability of this activity to get Alfonso, and what is the input-output ratio.
02
How to play the event
This activity routine is very simple, divided into a total of 7 stages, each stage costs a quantitative amount of gold coins, will give you a different broker, each broker contains the moment Alfonso, but the probability of each stage broker to get Alfonso is different. This is also what we will focus on in the following.
03
Probability calculation
Stage 1: 1600 coins for 2 10% young moments, including one Alfonso.
Precondition: This broker has a 10% probability that one of the moments in the pool contains an Alfonso.
Calculation process: the probability of one moment is 10%, at the same time in the middle of the moment to ensure that in ten moments exactly in Alfonso, the probability is also 10%, two probabilities at the same time to ensure, draw a broker to get Alfonso probability is 10% * 10% = 1%, not finished.
This is only the probability of winning the lottery for 1 broker, 1600 gold coins for 2 brokers, and the probability of at least one Alfonso in 2 brokers is 1-0.99 square = 1.99%, that is, the first stage of 1600 gold coins is exchanged for less than 2% winning rate.
Of course, this is just a small temptation bait. Next we look at Stage 2.
Stage 2: 4500 coins for 2 30% young moments, including one Alfonso.
Precondition: This broker has a 30% probability of one moment in the pool, ten of which contains an Alfonso in the pool.
Calculation process: consistent with the above, but 10% is replaced by 30%, the calculation idea is not listed, and the result is directly out.
The probability of drawing one broker to get Alfonso is 30% * 10% = 3%, and the probability of at least one of the 2 brokers is 1-0.97 square = 5.91%, that is, the second stage of 4500 gold coins in exchange for less than 6% winning rate.
Stage 3: 7,200 coins for a young moment, which contains a moment card, which contains an Alfonso.
Preconditions: This broker must hit the moment, and ten of the moments in the pool contain an Alfonso.
Calculation process: 1/10 = 10%, there is nothing to say. The third stage of 7200 gold increased the winning rate to 10%.
Stage 4: 7200 coins for a North American Star moment, which is full of moment cards, including an Alfonso.
Preconditions: This broker must hit the moment, six of which contain an Alfonso in the pool.
Calculation process: 1/6 = 16.67%, there is nothing to say. The 7200 gold coins spent in the fourth stage increased the odds of winning the lottery by a small step.
Stage 5: 13800 coins one young + one North American Star moment, each containing an Alfonso.
Preset conditions: Integration of phases 3 and 4.
Calculation process: The winning rate of stage 3 is 10%, the probability of not winning the prize is 90%, the winning rate of stage 4 is 16.67%, the probability of not winning the prize is 83.33%, then the probability of two simultaneously winning the lottery is 0.74997, the probability of at least one of the prizes is 1-0.74997 = 25%, and the winning rate of the fifth stage has finally risen to more than 20%.
Stage 6: 13,800 coins For a young man + a world stage moment, each containing an Alfonso.
Preconditions: Young and promising or that young and promising, the world stage and the North American star, are 6 in a probability of getting Alfonso, but the other moments the players are different, but the probability of getting Alfonso and stage 5 is consistent, it is also 25%, no additional analysis.
Stage 7: 13,800 gold 1 North American Star + a World Stage moment, each containing an Alfonso.
Preconditions: This world stage moment is 1 out of 6 (no, no, no, no, no one will stick to the last wave of not choosing Alfonso), and the last agent in the last stage finally has a guarantee. Therefore, there is no need to calculate the probability at this stage, and the probability of obtaining Alfonso is 100%~
04
conclusion
According to the calculation process in the preceding article, the summary is shown in the following table. Except for the 7th stage, the winning rate is 100%, the first 6 stages are unstable, and the highest winning rate of a single stage is only 25%, and the guarantee to the 7th stage is suddenly pulled from 25% to 100%.
The feeling is that the front of the gravel paving, it seems that a section of increase in the winning rate, but the base and multiple of each section of the increase are very pitiful, many players Kr to the middle of the no shipment, the heart is nothing more than "anyway, the front has invested so much, rush it" idea. Except for a very small number of European emperors, most shipped players spend 7 stages of gold coins, and the actual expenditure is actually more than the glory gift box.
But many sane brothers said that it was not worth spending 61,900 gold coins for an Alfonso kryptonite, and did not give Xinyi points. If I don't want the final guarantee, but only want to participate in the first few stages, what is the probability of winning the lottery?
Good question. If a brother is short of gold, but wants to beat the bicycle to become a motorcycle, what is the cumulative probability of each stage?
Take the second stage as an example. Suppose you only have 6100 funds, only enough to participate in the first two stages, then the ugly words in the front, according to the table above, the probability of not winning the first two rounds is (1-1.99%)* (1-5.91%) = 92.22%.
In contrast, the probability of winning at least one round in the previous two rounds is 1-92.22% = 7.78%, that is, you spend 6100 gold coins in exchange for a cumulative winning rate of 7.78%, and the cumulative probability of the later stages is summarized as follows:
What does this watch look like? Suppose I have 35,000 gold coins, enough for me to draw 5 rounds of activity, but how about 5 rounds, the corresponding probability of winning the lottery is only 48% or so, less than 50%, so if I only want to get Alfonso, this probability is not enough for me to press all the family to fight.
Some brothers also want to get other moments or the local tycoon simply wants to renew the contract materials, which is actually not as much as the moment given by the glory gift box. And this activity does not give the favorite points, there are so many gold coins to go to the regular broker to test the water is not fragrant? Even if the regular broker does not ship, the favorite points obtained are enough for you to redeem the specified time, so why try your luck in this place where the mascots are gathered.
remark:
1. The probabilities shown in this article are theoretical data calculated by the official explanatory text and the content of the player pool.
2. In the two tables in the concluding paragraph, the meaning difference is that the first table expresses the probability of winning the lottery in a single stage, while the second table expresses the total cost and cumulative winning probability up to a certain stage.
3. The "winning the lottery" mentioned in this article refers to the probability of drawing Alfonso, without considering the situation of other moments.
The above conclusions are mainly for most 0 Kr and micro Krypton players. In fact, as far as I know about kryptonite and local players, they generally prefer chain packs and glory gift boxes.
The reason is that conventional card packs are not guaranteed. And local tycoon players often encounter 8 consecutive days of krypton wear can not be shipped, if it is in the case of the desired points have been used, relying on these 8 days of krypton wear can not get the favorite points, may not be enough to redeem the desired card.
Whether it's a heavy krypton or a micro-krypton player, they hate to wait. Micro Kr and 0 Kr players hate the glory gift box because they must spend about 3,000 yuan to get the goods, can not rely on the explosion rate and the desired points to save money, have to wait for 3 months to enter the small package.
The heavy krypton and local tycoon players like to have activities with guaranteed bottoms, because they often wear krypton for 8 days without shipping, and they have to wait for the next time they enter the bag to have a chance to start. They often don't care that the glory gift box and the chain gift package need to spend about 3,000 yuan, and they can ensure that the money is spent when they get it, but they can't accept the money spent but they don't get it, and they have to wait.
Therefore, for the local tycoon players who are ready to wear Kr every time, the chain gift package can steadily hold a graduation candidate, which is a good activity, good luck spends less on hand, and luck is worse than spending more krypton wear is definitely in stock.
This article is written by Afon