2022 is already going to become a big year for the new energy industry.
When the design, parameters and technology of products exist on paper in the form of retreats, the differences between car companies at different stages do not seem to be much, and when everything enters the real world, when the single dimension of the car content is stimulated by the two major catalysts of sales and production capacity, the competition between brands becomes real and cruel.
This year, we see that the products of the head manufacturers have begun to enter the next generation in design innovation and functional invention, and the explosive models, whether it is a functional topic or an innovation controversy, are much higher than the same year models of the follow-up manufacturers, such as the Weilai ET7 that opened for test drives at the beginning of the month, and the user's enthusiasm for discussion is still endless.
When the head car company has the ability to invest in multiple models a year in terms of technology and capital, it is equivalent to releasing this difference exponentially.
After listening to the WEILAI fourth quarter 2021 and annual results communication meeting held this morning, your feeling will be particularly strong.
Deliver three and upgrade three
In 2022, Weilai will issue three NT2.0 cars, and we knew it last year.
But the most bullish thing is that in the case of another car that we have not seen, all three cars will be delivered this year.
The "what you see is what you get" in the electric car circle, we have been missing for a long time.
The most popular ET5, which is also the least controversial, believes that whether it is from the number of orders or deliveries, this car will set a new record for the Nio family.
On March 16, the first ET5 prototype rolled off the production center and is expected to begin delivery in September.
ET7 compared to ET5, has clearly entered the next stage, just yesterday, ET7's first batch of mass production cars have been officially off the production line, delivery is imminent, the industry is more concerned about the INCREASE of ET7 imagination how much space.
During the conference call, someone asked Li Bin: "Recently, there are media reports that ET7 has 15,000 orders and monthly sales can reach 5,000, what is WEILAI's expectation?"
Although Li Bin did not give a specific number, his reply was also very direct: "What I can say is that this amount is definitely more than the media rumors."
Li Bin's logic of subsequent sales forecast also follows two reference values, first of all, ET7's monthly sales volume of BMW 5 Series, Mercedes-Benz E Class, and Audi A6 in China has reached the range of 12,000-15,000, which can be regarded as a long-term target value; secondly, Weilai's current "866" three SUVs in Shanghai have a market share of 23% of all fuel and electric SUVs above 350,000 yuan, ranking first in overall sales. These two figures together give us a final estimate of ET7's long-term sales.
The ES7, which "only hears its name, not its face", has become the highlight of this year.
The ES7, which originally relied on the Beijing Auto Show for dissemination, was not affected by the postponement of the Beijing Auto Show at the time node, and Li Bin said that the ES7 will also be delivered in the third quarter of this year, which will become the shortest product in the history of Weilai from appearance to delivery.
BMW X5L has become the best template to understand this car, from the leakage of the existence of ES7 to this financial report, the news of ES7 has always been accompanied by the name of BMW X5L and exists, Li Bin's mouth "ES7 is our most advanced one of the "three electric three wisdom" technology, emphasizing high performance and luxury" The second half of the sentence, I am afraid we can find the answer from the image of X5L.
The ES7 is positioned as a "large five-seat SUV based on the second-generation technology platform NT2", "the current capacity is more than 200,000 units, and it is constantly growing". "I think I still have a lot of confidence to compete with the X5."
"We think it will be able to attract some users who are more demanding about the performance and quality of this product." We don't think it's going to have any impact on sales of 866 SUVs today, I think it should be an increment."
It is difficult to imagine that last year or represent all three cars of Weilai, this year has become the hottest outside the scope of the topic, but they will also usher in their own new key configuration, in today's meeting, Li Bin said that 866 will update the 8155 chip and 5G communication module when the annual model is redesigned, as well as several other optimization improvements, "product power will achieve major upgrades", which also laid the groundwork for our final topic.
Behind the battle of models is the battle of production
Weilai is already a company with two factories.
The JIANGHUAI WEILAI advanced manufacturing base that we are familiar with is in the process of upgrading its production capacity, with the goal of increasing the production rhythm to 60JPH by the middle of this year.
This production rhythm can be consistent with the second production site and as far as possible to meet the production capacity requirements of the model.
The construction and equipment installation of the second production base located in Hefei Xinqiao Intelligent Electric Vehicle Industrial Park have been basically completed, and the planned production capacity is 60JPH, which is currently in the process of commissioning.
This capacity means that the annual production capacity of a single plant can reach 240,000 units based on 4,000 hours of working hours, and the annual production capacity can reach 300,000 vehicles if the working hours are increased to 5,000 hours through overtime.
Although it looks like both are positive, the two production bases are also in their own critical challenge periods.
The first factory is about to usher in the most complex parallel transformation.
This factory must ensure that the 866, which is still normalized, continues to produce, and must cooperate with the new process introduced by ET7 and new suppliers to carry out capacity ramp-up, and at the same time, it must also debug the production line for the ES7 that will be put into production.
Considering that the platforms of these cars are even different, this has a relatively large test for the overall scheduling, planning, and scheduling.
Although the second factory only needs to be responsible for the production of one model of ET5 in the early stage, considering the subsequent sales of ET5 models, the production capacity hell and climbing that have tested many brands have also become a new level BOSS.
I also look forward to WEILAI's early sharing of the construction layout and process innovation of the second production base.
New car + new factory, do you want to increase the price?
Think of that year, when the new energy vehicles continued to reduce prices, the heat, the flow, really made people can't think of the end of the topic can surpass it.
Until time quietly gives us the answer:
The only thing that can beat the price reduction is the price increase.
Recently, we will not mention the heat of the price increases, but after each family has risen, everyone is full of curiosity about Weilai, which has not reduced prices before and has not increased prices now.
Are you going to go up or not?
Li Bin did not give a conclusion, but the views given broke the judgment that many people think that the price increase of electric vehicles is helpless.
"In response to the recent market concern about the soaring price of lithium carbonate leading to the rise in costs, Weilai believes that the price speculation of lithium carbonate is even greater after market research, and the supply and demand relationship is not much different at present. At present, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is also coordinating price pricing, and WEIlai also calls on upstream raw material manufacturers not to make personal speculative price increases from the perspective of long-term interests, which is not a good thing for the industry."
But at the same time, Weilai did not completely block the price increase, Li Bin repeatedly said that it will formulate a reasonable listing price according to the node of the new product listing, and the traditional 866 is also among them, and when the annual model of the updated chip appears, Weilai will also make a re-judgment on whether to adjust the price.
Li Bin said that although each company has now encountered greater pressure on battery supply, NIO "began to increase the production line with CATL according to our requirements from last year", and this year's battery should be able to meet the needs of NIO.
The uncertainty of supply comes more from chips, "chips are very big challenges, because we have to use more than a thousand chips per car, of which 10% will have tight supply problems."
"In the second half of the year, the production capacity of the whole vehicle and the production capacity of the tram are OK, but the main thing is the fluctuation of the supply chain, especially the volatility of the basic chip, which has a greater impact on us, which is the current situation."
Technology research and development has also contributed to the balance of car prices, NIO's recently replaced ternary iron lithium battery has effectively reduced the cost compared to the previous 70kWh battery pack, in this case, NIO believes that this year can still maintain an 18-20% vehicle gross margin.
This trend will affect the next few years, and WEILAI will continue to increase investment in research and development of key technologies, especially in key areas related to full-stack autonomous driving technology and power batteries.
The stable or even rising price does not mean that Weilai will hand over the low-end market to others. Li Bin's thinking is that the market range that a brand can reasonably cover is preferred, and the CURRENT reasonable coverage of the NIO brand is the bicycle market of 50,000-100,000 US dollars per vehicle, while the product range of 30,000-50,000 US dollars for bicycles still has great demand, and can ensure the same reasonable gross profit margin. This requires another brand to occupy.
This is not simply a matter of brand operation, but also needs to "think about the systematic efficiency of the comprehensive basic system from the definition of the product, from the basic structure, including the use of materials."
For this long-rumored new brand, this financial report meeting also ushered in the final tone: our business work for mass-market brands is progressing smoothly, the core team is completed, the strategic direction and development strategy are clarified, and the first batch of products has entered the key research and development stage.
The wonderful 2022 of Weilai, the big overview has not yet appeared in front of our eyes.
Don't underestimate the difficulty of production.
And don't underestimate how much scale drives the situation.
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