In China, the mid-to-high-end MPV market has never been as lively as it is now.
In March, Lantu Dreamer, which positioned a large luxury MPV, was officially announced to be officially listed on April 7. BYD's high-end brand Denza has released a preview of the new MPV. Extreme Kr also said that the new luxury smart pure electric MPV will be released within the year.
This hilarity has to start from the past two years. In the past two years, some car companies have returned to the home MPV market segment, especially their own brands, such as BYD Song MAX, Geely Jiaji, Chase G50, Wuling Capgemini, etc.
By 2021, GAC Toyota will introduce the domestic Syna for the first time, the first MPV model of Beijing Hyundai, the Kustu, and the fourth generation of The Gahwa Global Car of Dongfeng Yueda Kia, which has aroused wider attention to the MPV market. After the Guangzhou Auto Show, the launch of Buick pure electric GL8 concept version, Lantu Dreamer, SAIC Maxus MIFA 9 and other models made MPV become the focus of attention again.
Perhaps from the past year or two of the MPV market smelled some new business opportunities, car companies began to invest in the MPV market chips, want to seize the new outlet.
Mid-to-high-end MPV collective carnival
Judging from the rhythm of intensive release by car companies, 2022 will be a big year for MPV products.
Moreover, the new and old forces in the MPV market have invariably chosen the same direction - taking the road of high-end MPV.
At present, the current situation of the MPV market is actually a situation of high and low at both ends. Judging from the MPV retail sales list released by the association from January to December 2021, Wuling Hongguang ranked in the top two with 250,000 vehicles and Buick GL8 with 160,000 vehicles. And in the past few years, Wuling Hongguang and Buick GL8 are almost two benchmark models in the MPV market.
But the trend has diverged – most low-end MPV sales are declining year by year, while high-end MPV models are starting to become more active.
Wuling Hongguang's total sales fell 11% year-on-year last year, compared with 750,000 vehicles that peaked in 2014, Wuling Hongguang lost nearly two-thirds of its market share last year, while the Buick GL8, from nearly 80,000 in 2016, doubled sales from nearly 80,000 in 2016 to 160,000 in 2021.
Moreover, since the second half of last year, a number of high-end MPV new cars such as GAC Toyota Xena, the redesigned Odyssey, AliShen, Kustu and Jiahua have been listed one after another, and the original pattern of Buick GL8 has become a super strong market share battle.
The Association also said that there are 40 MPV product brands in production and on sale in the domestic MPV market. From January to February this year, high-end cars accounted for 60% of the sales of 106,000 units, while the low-end MPV shrank sharply, highlighting the "inverted pyramid" market pattern of the MPV market.
It is foreseeable that the mid-to-high-end MPV models that will appear one after another this year will continue to release vigorous market vitality. Their active participation is obviously to take advantage of some market opportunities, such as the timing of the opening of the three-child policy, the upgrading of market consumption, and the general trend of family purchases.
However, in the automobile market that has already entered the stock competition, is the MPV segment with more and more new brands entering the market really fragrant?
Is niche high-end really fragrant?
The current MPV market is still that niche segment. Although the heat continues, the overall MPV market has not actually made a big splash because of the addition of new products.
According to the data released by the Association, the total sales of MPVs in 2021 were 1.07 million units, an increase of 1.4% year-on-year. This means that the market capacity has not expanded with the addition of hot products, and even if new products are intensively listed in the second half of last year, there is no obvious incremental trend.
Looking back further, the MPV market actually reached a peak of 2.49 million units in 2016, of which Wuling Hongguang sold 650,000 vehicles, Baojun 730 sold 370,000 vehicles, and Ono sold 153,000 vehicles.
But since then, MPV sales have begun to decline year by year. From 2017 to 2020, the MPV market fell from a peak of 2.49 million vehicles to 1.05 million units in 2020. Although the cumulative sales of MPV last year increased slightly year-on-year, it decreased by 56.3% compared with the peak performance in 2016.
Analyzing the past peak sales point of the MPV market is particularly related to the opening up of the two-child policy. 2016 is the first year of the full implementation of the two-child policy, but from the data point of view, the favorable policy only brought a one-year increase to the MPV market, but in the following years it took a sharp turn, especially after the emergence of large-scale 6/7-seat SUV models, the market share of MPV was also encroached on by cars and SUVs.
This shows that some of the high-end MPV new cars that rush to cut the "three-child policy" leeks are easy to lose their calculations.
Entering 2022, the Association also said bluntly, "This year, in the domestic MPV market, there has been a phenomenon that the market concentration of the top 10 companies has not risen but has declined." From January to February, the cumulative wholesale sales volume was 109,000 units, and the concentration was 81.6%, down 10% year-on-year, which is relatively rare. ”
Is the new energy MPV a real blue ocean?
Judging from multiple sets of data, the current MPV market has not really "incense" up. However, there was the "dark horse" of Sai Na. From January to February this year, Syna's wholesale sales were 9419, second only to the Buick GL8, ranking second. Although the phenomenon of terminal markup of Xena was once crazy, from the perspective of sales, it showed great potential. This may also be the reason for attracting more and more players to "test the waters" and lay out in advance.
At present, BYD Song MAX EV, SAIC Maxus EUNIQ 5 and MIFA 9 have made efforts. Next, among the independent car companies, Weipai, SAIC Maxus, BYD Denza, Hongqi, and Lynk & Co will launch MPV this year; the joint venture brand FAW Toyota will launch Xena's sister model, GRANVIA; among the new forces, the second model of Extreme Kr and Lantu have chosen high-end MPV, and it is reported that Ideal Auto is also preparing high-end MPV models.
Following the joint venture brand, a large wave of independent brands have quickly entered the market, including filling the gap in the electric MPV market.
At present, in the new energy vehicle market, high-end pure electric MPV is indeed a blue ocean, and electrification and intelligence also give home MPV more room to play. At the same time, the data shows that the new energy MPV has not achieved the same growth rate as the overall new energy passenger car.
It is undeniable that there is still room for the new energy MPV market to be stimulated, and MPV is already one of the few high-profit segments that still have room for development.
However, the MPV market is different from other passenger car segments, and its current demand is still not obvious. According to the preliminary forecast of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, on the basis of 2021, it is estimated that the wholesale sales of domestic MPV in 2022 may be between 1.02 million and 1.1 million units. The new MPV is also more difficult to get the favor of manufacturers and consumers, because the choice of MPV is generally more for the purchase of families, this group of people for the promotion of new product gimmicks have a stronger "immunity".
Moreover, in the high-end market, the MPV "one brother" Buick GL8 is still a repressive existence, coupled with the popularity of Japanese MPVs. Autonomy wants to get a piece of this market, which is far more difficult than in the sedan and SUV market.